MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, May 19.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

4:10 PM Eastern

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins

Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez has spent the past two weeks coming out of the bullpen, so his length could be a question mark, but he owns a 2.25 ERA with one home run and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings. He is also backed by a Braves bullpen that ranks second in ERA at 3.04. Marlins starting pitcher Braxton Garrett owns an inflated 33.75 ERA after allowing five runs in 1 1/3 innings in his 2026 debut. That number is obviously due for regression, but it was also his first MLB appearance since 2024, when he posted a 5.35 ERA in his last full season at the MLB level.

Pick: Braves Moneyline -125 and Over 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Braves -146 and Total 8.9

6:40 PM Eastern

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo’s 5.07 ERA is not pretty, but his 2.91 fielding independent shows he has pitched much better than the ERA indicates, allowing 0.9 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has been magnificent with a 1.87 ERA, and while his 3.51 fielding independent suggests he could be due for some regression, he is still recording 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing only one home run per nine innings. He also faces a Phillies offense that entered the series ranked 20th in scoring with 4.2 runs per game, though both offenses should benefit from favorable wind conditions.

Pick: Reds vs. Phillies Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals

There have not been many bright spots for the Mets this season, but starting pitcher Nolan McLean has been one of them, posting a 2.92 ERA and 2.68 fielding independent with 11 strikeouts per nine innings. While the Nationals lead the league in scoring with over 5.4 runs per game, much of their damage has come against left-handed pitching, as the team entered Monday ranked 14th in OPS and 21st in batting average against right-handed pitching. Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin has been solid since returning to Major League Baseball after spending three seasons overseas, posting a 3.53 ERA with 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings while facing a Mets lineup that ranks last in the National League in road scoring with 3.4 runs per game.

Pick: Mets vs. Nationals Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has struggled with command, issuing 4.8 walks per nine innings, which has elevated his ERA to 4.21 despite recording 10 strikeouts and allowing only one home run per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax owns a 3.91 ERA, but a much higher 5.05 fielding independent with seven strikeouts and 5.5 walks per nine innings allowed. He is also backed by a lineup that ranks ninth in scoring with 4.6 runs per game.

Pick: Orioles vs. Rays Over 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has enjoyed a strong start to the season, posting a 2.35 ERA with 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero has also improved significantly this season, allowing just one home run and two walks per nine innings while posting a 3.65 ERA, though he is backed by a lineup that ranks 25th in scoring with four runs per game.

Pick: Guardians vs. Tigers Under 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4

7:05 PM Eastern

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease leads all qualifying American League pitchers with 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings while posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.85 fielding independent. He has also allowed just one home run in 52 1/3 innings. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren owns a 3.42 ERA and 3.07 fielding independent with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings, though his ERA rises to 3.73 at home, where all six home runs he has allowed this season have occurred in 31 1/3 innings. He has not allowed a single home run in 16 innings on the road.

Pick: Blue Jays +120 and Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -111 and Total 7.6

7:40 PM Eastern

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. has endured a rough start to the 2026 season, posting a 6.86 ERA with 1.6 home runs and five walks allowed per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that owns the worst ERA in the league at 5.78. The Twins bullpen ranks 28th with a 5.16 ERA as Minnesota turns to Zebby Matthews, who threw seven shutout innings in his first MLB appearance of 2026. However, he is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 5.56 ERA, though his 3.79 fielding independent with 10 strikeouts per nine innings suggests he pitched better than the ERA indicated.

Pick: Astros vs. Twins Over 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals

Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suarez has been superb, posting a 2.44 ERA and 2.92 fielding independent while allowing just 0.6 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. However, he now faces a Royals offense that has been drastically different at home versus on the road. Kansas City ranks last in road scoring with just over three runs per game, but sixth in home scoring with over five runs per game. The Red Sox have experienced the opposite split, ranking last in scoring at home with 2.8 runs per game while averaging 4.4 runs per game on the road, which ranks 14th. For the Royals, this is expected to be a bullpen game after Kris Bubic landed on the injured list Monday night, and Kansas City ranks 20th in bullpen ERA at 4.42.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -125 and Over 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -144 and Total 9.2

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs

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While the wind will be blowing out at Wrigley Field during the daytime, it is expected to blow inward at night, which should help suppress offense. The Cubs entered the series fourth in the league in scoring with over 5.1 runs per game, while the Brewers rank sixth with just under five runs per game. Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski enters having allowed zero runs across 18 1/3 innings over his past three starts while leading qualifying National League pitchers with 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings and posting a 2.12 ERA overall. Cubs starting pitcher Ben Brown owns a 1.60 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts and 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings, though only two of his 14 appearances this season have been starts and his longest outing lasted four innings.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline -110 and Under 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -128 and Total 6.8

9:38 PM Eastern

Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels

The Athletics have shown significant home-road splits offensively, ranking eighth in scoring at home with 4.8 runs per game while ranking 23rd on the road with fewer than four runs per game. They now face Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers, who owns a 4.38 ERA and 3.27 fielding independent with 9.7 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez has posted a 5.80 ERA this season, with his strikeout rate dropping from 11 per nine innings in 2025 to 6.7 this season. However, he enters having allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his past four starts, while the Angels rank 28th in scoring with just over three runs per game.

Pick: Athletics vs. Angels Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6

9:40 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

It has been a rough season overall for Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson, who owns a 5.40 ERA, but his 4.76 fielding independent with 8.6 strikeouts and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings points toward positive regression. He has also allowed three runs or fewer in each of his past three starts and faces a Giants lineup that ranks last in scoring with 3.5 runs per game. Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp owns a 3.49 ERA, but a much lower 2.67 fielding independent with 10.7 strikeouts and only 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Arizona’s offense has also struggled at home, ranking 22nd in scoring with fewer than 4.2 runs per game.

Pick: Giants vs. Diamondbacks Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2

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