MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, May 20.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

1:05 PM Eastern

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has struggled this season, posting a 5.91 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings, though his 4.84 fielding independent points toward positive regression. Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott owns a 4.21 ERA with 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings and enters in his best form of the season, giving up just three total runs across 22 2/3 innings over his past four starts. He also faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 20th in scoring with fewer than 4.3 runs per game.

Pick: Reds vs. Phillies Under 9.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6

1:10 PM Eastern

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz was pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays at this time last season and has struggled this season with a 5.26 ERA while recording only 7.4 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings. The Rays are expected to reintroduce Steven Matz into the starting rotation Wednesday. Matz owns a 3.86 ERA this season and is in line to make his first start since May 3.

Pick: Rays Moneyline -115

Greg’s Handicap: Rays -142

3:10 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies

Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter owns a 4.38 ERA this season, but he has increased his strikeout rate to 10 strikeouts per nine innings and enters having allowed just one run across his past two starts. Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland has a 7.22 ERA, but a lower 5.39 fielding independent with 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He also faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 28th in scoring with 3.8 runs per game, while the Rangers bullpen ranks first in ERA at 3.06.

Pick: Rangers vs. Rockies Under 10.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.3

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3:40 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

While the overall season numbers for Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly are rough with a 5.91 ERA, 1.8 home runs allowed, and 4.9 walks per nine innings, his poor early results may have been influenced by beginning the season on the injured list. He has allowed only two runs across 16 innings in his past two starts after posting a 3.51 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.3 walks allowed per nine innings last season. Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle owns a 5.59 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 4.1 walks allowed per nine innings and is backed by a lineup that ranks last in scoring with 3.5 runs per game.

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -125

Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -148

7:05 PM Eastern

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been spectacular this season with a 1.35 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly 6.2. Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage owns a 1.40 ERA through four starts with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and has yet to allow a home run this season. While the Yankees lead the league in home scoring with nearly 6.6 runs per game, they are also prone to strikeouts, ranking 22nd in strikeouts per game.

Pick: Blue Jays vs. Yankees Under 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4

7:40 PM Eastern

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals

While Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha owns a 2.87 ERA, he also has a much higher 4.15 fielding independent with only 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early has a 3.21 ERA this season, but a much higher 4.58 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. He also faces a Royals offense with dramatic home-road splits, ranking last in the league in road scoring with just over three runs per game while ranking seventh in home scoring with 4.9 runs per game. The Red Sox have experienced the opposite split, ranking last in home scoring with 2.8 runs per game while averaging 4.4 runs per game on the road.

Pick: Red Sox vs. Royals Over 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8

9:38 PM Eastern

Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels

Athletics starting pitcher Aaron Civale has started the season strong, posting a 2.70 ERA. While his 4.24 fielding independent is a concern, he gets to face an Angels lineup that entered Tuesday ranked 29th in home scoring with just three runs per game. Angels starting pitcher Jack Kochanowicz is recording only six strikeouts per nine innings with 4.4 walks per nine innings, but he is also allowing just 0.9 home runs per nine innings. He faces an Athletics lineup that ranks 26th in road scoring with 3.8 runs per game.

Pick: Athletics Moneyline -120 and Under 9.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -120 and Total 8.7

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