NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction

In the second round of the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs, we’re set to see the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves fight for a spot in the Western Conference Finals. The Spurs, fresh off a straightforward five-game series against the Trail Blazers, will have rest and health on their side, but the Timberwolves are a little more battle-tested having survived a six-game series against the Nuggets. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Series Odds

(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, May 1 at 7:00 pm ET)

Series Winner: Spurs -2000, Timberwolves +950

Series Spread: Spurs -2.5 Games (-270), Timberwolves +2.5 Games (+220)

Series Total: Over 5.5 Games (+230), Under 5.5 Games (-290)

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Series Prediction

Unfortunately, injuries will play a major role in determining the outcome of this series. Minnesota lost Donte DiVincenzo to a torn Achilles in the series win over Denver. That said, we won’t see DiVincenzo until very late next season, if we see him at all. The Timberwolves also have Anthony Edwards on the shelf right now, with the superstar having suffered a hyperextended knee in Game 4 of that Nuggets series. On April 26, ESPN’s Shams Charania announced that Edwards would be out “multiple weeks” with his injuries. Well, that vague injury timeline is now under a major microscope. Game 1 of this series tips on Monday, May 4, Game 2 will be played on May 6, and Game 3 will be played on May 8. That said, if “multiple weeks” really meant two weeks, Edwards won’t be back until Game 4. If Edwards heals faster, perhaps we see him in Game 2 or Game 3. And sadly, there’s also a chance we won’t see him at all.

Working off the assumption that Edwards will at least be back for one of the two home games in Minnesota — which feels like a safe assumption with Timberwolves beat writer Jon Krawczynski tweeting that he expects Edwards to play in this series — I really like the Wolves to force a Game 5. That’s essentially available at bet365 at -155 odds, which is wild to me. If Edwards is available in either Game 3 or Game 4, the moneyline price for that specific game might not be too far off -155. Minnesota was favored in home games against San Antonio during the regular season. So, let’s hope for good health. That specific play (Over 4.5 Games) also means we’ll have an outside shot at hitting when a shorthanded Minnesota team plays a few games without Edwards.

Of course, Ayo Dosunmu is also injured for the Timberwolves right now. He missed Game 6 with a calf injury, which only made that win over the Nuggets more surprising. But beating this young, healthy San Antonio team will be difficult without the prized deadline acquisition. Dosunmu shot 41.4% from three in 24 games with the Timberwolves during the regular season, plus he’s an awesome downhill driver and a strong perimeter defender.

Now I will acknowledge that we’re working with a lot of “ifs” here. Banking on Minnesota means banking on players getting healthy, and we’re doing so with very little good news when it comes to reporting. However, in the postseason, we’re going to get vague reporting. That’s all part of the gamesmanship. While there’s a chance these injuries are more serious, there’s also a chance we get those unexpected Shams tweets declaring Dosunmu and/or Edwards active.

The reality is that I’d give Minnesota a shot at stretching this series to the maximum — or winning outright — if both of these teams were coming into this healthy. So, with an outside shot that the Timberwolves will be healthy midway through this best-of-seven series, the only way I can even consider betting it is by going the Minnesota side. So, I’m going Over 4.5 games, which is essentially both teams to win a game. I’m also sprinkling Minnesota +2.5 Games at +245.

As far as the actual on-court stuff goes, there are things I like about the matchup for the Timberwolves. For starters, having Rudy Gobert, an elite rim protector that just shut Nikola Jokic’s water off, to defend Victor Wembanyama is a major plus. Not many teams have a big, long rim protector to throw on the young superstar, but Minnesota has one of the best options available. The Timberwolves will also be able to throw Jaden McDaniels on one of the three high-level San Antonio guards. That’ll likely be the one with the hot hand, and he’s fully capable of making life miserable on whoever it is. McDaniels was partly responsible for shutting Jamal Murray down in the last couple of opening-round games.

The Timberwolves are also a very well-coached team, with Chris Finch knowing exactly what it takes to help his team find success in the postseason. So, while the current defensive options outside of Gobert and McDaniels aren’t perfect, I do expect Minnesota’s rotation pieces to be disciplined when it comes to getting out on shooters. And it should be noted that this San Antonio team isn’t great from behind the three-point line. That means the Timberwolves should be in decent shape defensively if they’re doing a solid job of containing the stars.

Offensively, I still believe Minnesota can give San Antonio some trouble. If the Spurs throw Wembanyama on Julius Randle, the Wolves forward can really open up the floor by playing a more perimeter-oriented game. Pulling Wembanyama away would open up driving lanes for McDaniels and Terrence Shannon Jr. — and eventually Edwards and Dosunmu — and Gobert would become a lob option when covered by whatever smaller player that ends up on him.

I know the numbers entering this season are going to be hard to ignore. San Antonio is second in the NBA in adjusted net rating (+8.0), third in adjusted offensive rating (118.8), and third in adjusted defensive rating (110.8). That’s better than Minnesota across the board, as the Wolves are 10th in aNET (+2.7), 13th in aORTG (115.5), and eighth in aDRTG (112.8). But Minnesota has been to back-to-back Western Conference Finals. This team has been wildly successful over the last couple of years, the group is crazy competitive, and these players simply aren’t going down without a fight. That means a lot in a series against a young, inexperienced San Antonio group.

Series Pick: Over 4.5 Games (-155 – 2 units) & Timberwolves +2.5 Games (+245 – 0.5 units)

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