Game: Charlotte 49ers vs. UTSA Roadrunners

Date: January 7th at 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Coming off an incredible double-overtime win, the Charlotte 49ers head to San Antonio to take on the UTSA Roadrunners. Charlotte sits just below .500 at 7–8 on the season, with a 1–1 record in conference play and a strong 5–1 mark against Quad 4 opponents. The 49ers average 73.6 points per game (206th in D1) while allowing the same 73.6 points per game defensively (146th in D1).

UTSA has struggled mightily this season, entering this matchup with a 4–10 record, an 0–2 mark in conference play, and a 1–4 record against Quad 4 opponents. The Roadrunners have been poor on both ends of the floor, averaging just 65.2 points per game (331st in D1) while allowing 81.8 points per game (312th in D1). On paper, this looks like a spot where Charlotte should come in and take care of business, though inconsistency has made them difficult to trust at times.

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Betting Overview

Charlotte has been installed as a fairly consistent 3.5-point favorite in this matchup. The only listed moneyline currently available is at Bet365, with Charlotte priced at -160 and UTSA at +135. The total is set relatively low at 143.5, a number that sportsbooks have held firm.

KenPom Ratings

Charlotte ranks 180th in the KenPom ratings with a -2.08 net rating, reflecting a team slightly below the Division I average. They carry an adjusted offensive efficiency of 111.4 (119th nationally) and a defensive efficiency of 113.5 (285th nationally). UTSA sits much lower at 304th in KenPom with a -12.16 net rating, pairing a 98.2 offensive efficiency (340th nationally) with a 110.3 defensive efficiency (214th nationally).

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 meetings between these conference opponents, each team has won five times. UTSA has held a slight edge against the spread, covering in seven of those 10 matchups. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in six of the last 10 meetings. These teams met only once last season, a game in which UTSA won outright, covered the spread, and saw the over cash.

This season, Charlotte is an even 7–7 ATS, with a 1–2 record on the road, a 2–4 mark in games with four or more days of rest, and a 1–1 record in American Conference play. Totals have favored the over, hitting in eight of 14 games, including two of three on the road, four of six with extended rest, and both conference games.

UTSA has struggled significantly against the spread this year, posting a 3–9 ATS record. They are 1–2 at home, 1–1 as a home underdog, 1–6 in games with four or more days of rest, and 0–2 in conference play. Totals have leaned heavily toward the under, hitting in eight of 12 games, including all three home games, five of seven with extended rest, and splitting 1–1 in conference matchups.

Final Thoughts

I think Charlotte will ride the momentum from their recent performance and carry it into this matchup, leading to both a win and a cover. The total is a bit tricky given how low it’s set, which makes it feel somewhat like a trap. Because of that, I would avoid the over/under in this game.