Game: Louisville Cardinals vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: February 28th at 2:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

Over the past few games, the Clemson Tigers have hit a rough patch. Fortunately for them, they had a much-needed week off to regroup, fine-tune some issues, and reset. Today, they host the Louisville Cardinals, a team that has been somewhat inconsistent in its own right.

Louisville enters having won three of its last five games, though the Cardinals have dropped their two most recent road contests. They sit at 20-8 overall with a 9-6 record in ACC play. Because they’re on the road, this qualifies as a Quad 1 opportunity for Louisville, a quadrant in which they are just 5-8 this season. The Cardinals average 86.4 points per game (15th in Division I) while allowing 72.0 points per contest (101st nationally).

Clemson, meanwhile, has lost four straight and is searching for momentum. The Tigers are also 20-8 overall with a 10-5 mark in the ACC. Hosting the 16th-ranked (NET) Cardinals makes this a Quad 1 matchup for Clemson as well, and they are currently 3-5 against Quad 1 opponents. Clemson is averaging 74.5 points per game (183rd in Division I) while allowing just 65.8 points per contest (15th nationally).

For both teams, this represents a valuable résumé-building opportunity and a chance to prove who can deliver in a high-stakes conference matchup.

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Betting Overview

Louisville opened as a 1.5-point favorite and has largely held that number across most major sportsbooks. The moneyline has remained steady as well, with Louisville around -120 (BetMGM) and Clemson near +108 (Bet365). The total has climbed slightly from its opening number of 144.5 to a range between 146.5 and 147.5, depending on the book.

KenPom Ratings

In the KenPom rankings, Louisville sits 18th nationally with a +26.33 net rating, while Clemson ranks 41st with a +18.99 net rating.

The Cardinals post an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 125.0 (15th nationally) alongside an adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.7 (28th nationally). Clemson enters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.3 (74th nationally) paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.3 (18th nationally).

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 meetings between these programs, the Louisville Cardinals hold a slight edge straight up, winning 6 of 10, and they’ve also been stronger against the spread, covering in 7 of those 10 matchups. Totals in those contests have split evenly at five overs and five unders.

The Cardinals enter this game 14-14 ATS, with a 2-7 record on the road, a 2-5 mark as an away favorite, an impressive 8-1 record with 4+ days off, and a 5-10 record in ACC play. Louisville games have leaned toward the under overall, hitting in 16 of 28 contests. However, on the road, the over has been more prominent, cashing in 5 of 9 games, including 5 of 7 as a road favorite. With 4+ days off, the over has hit in 5 of 9, while in ACC matchups, the under has connected in 9 of 15 games.

The Clemson Tigers come into this one 14-12-1 ATS, with a 5-8-1 record at home (all as favorites), a 5-2 mark with 4+ days off, and an 8-6-1 record in conference play. Totals have heavily favored the under in Clemson games, hitting in 17 of 27 overall. At home, the under has cashed in 10 of 14 games, and in 5 of 7 contests with 4+ days off. In ACC action, the under has hit in 10 of 15 games.

Final Thoughts

Clemson certainly feels like a team on the ropes heading into this matchup. While their season wouldn’t officially be over with a loss, it would make their path significantly more difficult unless they make a serious run in the ACC Tournament. Given the stakes, I expect Brad Brownell to have his group fully locked in for this one.

For that reason, I like Clemson to rise to the occasion and win this game outright. As for the total, there are too many conflicting trends for my liking, so I’ll stay away from it here.