Game: NC State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Date: February 24th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

We’ve got a strong ACC battle on tap this evening in Charlottesville, Virginia, as the NC State Wolfpack hit the road to face the Virginia Cavaliers. NC State had all of last week off after a convincing home win over rival UNC. The Wolfpack enter this matchup at 19-8 overall with a 10-4 record in ACC play.

This will be NC State’s 11th Quad 1 opportunity of the season, and they currently sit at 5-5 against such competition. The Wolfpack’s success has largely been driven by their offense, as they average 84.9 points per game (21st in Division I) while allowing 73.8 points per contest (159th nationally).

Virginia, meanwhile, has been red hot, riding an eight-game winning streak. The Cavaliers boast an impressive 24-3 overall record and a 12-2 mark in the ACC. Even at home, this will qualify as a Quad 1 matchup for UVA, a quadrant in which they are 6-2 this season. Virginia is averaging 82.0 points per game (43rd in Division I) while allowing just 68.0 points per contest (32nd nationally).

This sets up as a high-quality showdown, with NC State looking to capitalize on its extended rest and Virginia aiming to extend its winning streak.

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Betting Overview

There hasn’t been much movement in the spread, as UVA opened as a 5.5-point favorite, with most books holding that number and a few shifting to -6. The moneyline has seen only slight adjustments, with NC State available around +220 (FanDuel, from +215) and Virginia listed near -230 (Bet365, from -265). The total has ticked up modestly from 150.5 to a range between 151.5 and 152.5, depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

These teams are closely aligned in the KenPom ratings, with Virginia ranked 19th nationally at a +25.86 net rating and NC State 25th at +22.59. The Cavaliers hold an adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.7 (27th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 96.9 (17th nationally). NC State posts an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.6 (20th nationally) paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency mark of 101.0 (39th nationally).

Betting Trends

These teams met earlier this season, with the Virginia Cavaliers winning on the road, covering the spread, and the under cashing in that matchup. In the nine meetings prior to that, the NC State Wolfpack won five of nine and also covered in five of those contests. The over held a slight edge during that stretch, hitting in five of the nine games as well.

NC State enters at 15-11-1 ATS, including a 5-3 record on the road and a 1-2 mark as an away underdog. The Wolfpack are 3-5 ATS with four or more days of rest and 8-5-1 ATS in ACC play. From a totals perspective, NC State games have leaned toward the over, hitting in 16 of 27 contests. On the road, the over has connected in seven of eight games, including two of three as an away underdog. With four-plus days of rest, however, the under has cashed in five of eight matchups. In conference play, the over has hit in nine of 14 games.

Virginia comes in at 13-12-2 ATS, posting a 7-6-1 record at home, all as favorites. The Cavaliers are 10-8 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 7-7 ATS in ACC action. Totals have favored the under overall, hitting in 16 of 27 games. At home, the under has connected in nine of 14 contests. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has cashed in 12 of 18 games. In ACC play, the under has hit in nine of 14 matchups.

Final Thoughts

Although NC State hasn’t produced its strongest results this season with four-plus days of rest, the momentum from its dominant win over UNC could carry over into this matchup. For that reason, I like the Wolfpack to cover the number here. As for the total, I would lean slightly toward the under.