Game: SMU Mustangs vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: January 7th at 9:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPNU

In the latter half of Wednesday’s ACC slate, SMU will travel to Clemson for a matchup that should provide clarity on where both teams truly stand. Each side has been relatively consistent to this point in the season, but as conference play ramps up, the gap between legitimate contenders and potential pretenders often becomes clearer.

SMU has played just one ACC game so far, a home matchup against UNC in which they controlled much of the second half and ultimately came away with the win. The Mustangs enter this contest with a 12–2 overall record and a 1–2 mark in Quad 1 games. Offensively, they are one of the most potent teams in the country, averaging 91.5 points per game (9th in Division I). Defensively, however, they have struggled, allowing 76.9 points per game, which ranks 221st nationally.

Clemson, meanwhile, has already played two ACC games, winning both on the road. The Tigers sit at 12–3 overall and also hold a 1–2 record in Quad 1 games. Offense has not been their calling card, as they average just 78.2 points per game (122nd nationally), but they make up for it with a strong defensive unit that allows only 65.7 points per game (24th nationally).

This sets up as a fairly even matchup on paper, and it presents a key opportunity for SMU to prove that its win over UNC was no fluke.

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Betting Overview

The spread in this matchup has remained steady, with Clemson holding firm as a 4.5-point favorite. The best available moneyline prices currently show SMU at +180 on FanDuel and Clemson at -210 on Bet365. The total has seen a slight dip at some books, moving from the opening number of 150.5 down to 148.5 or 149.5.

KenPom Ratings

These teams are closely aligned in the KenPom ratings, with SMU ranked 31st (net rating of +19.94) and Clemson just behind at 35th (+19.03). The Mustangs boast an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.3 (15th nationally), paired with a defensive efficiency rating of 103.4 (77th nationally). Clemson checks in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 117.2 (63rd nationally) and a defensive efficiency rating of 98.2 (26th nationally).

Betting Trends

These teams met twice last season, with Clemson winning both matchups. Those games split evenly against the spread and also split on the over/under.

This season, SMU sits at an even 7–7 ATS. They are 1–1 on the road, 2–2 as an underdog, 3–4 in games with four or more days of rest, and 1–0 in conference play. Totals have leaned heavily toward the over, hitting in 9 of 14 games. On the road, totals have split 1–1. As an underdog, the over has hit in 3 of 4 games, in 6 of 7 games with four or more days of rest, and in their lone conference matchup.

Clemson is 6–8 ATS on the year, with a 2–5 record at home, all of which have come as favorites. They are 2–4 in games with four or more days of rest and 1–1 in conference play. Totals have favored the under, hitting in 8 of 14 games overall. At home, the under has hit in 5 of 7 games, as well as in 4 of 6 games with four or more days of rest, and totals have split 1–1 in conference play.

Final Thoughts

Clemson has shown itself to be a solid team to start conference play, particularly in road environments, though most of its games have been tightly contested. SMU, however, brings a level of offensive firepower that Clemson has not yet faced this season. While I’m not confident SMU will win outright, I do believe the Mustangs can keep this game close enough to cover the spread, and I expect the over to hit.