Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants 4:05 PM ET
Eury Perez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-142 per DraftKings)
Does this number seem somewhat alarmingly low? Yes, but it’s mostly due to the fact that the Giants lineup is one of the least-struck-out teams in the MLB. So why take this bet? Eury Perez has had the strikeout pitch working really well in pretty much all but 1 game.
He has only failed to record over 4.5 Ks twice this season, and he has the element of surprise this afternoon, due to the fact that nobody in the San Francisco lineup has seen him before. Perez also bounced back last week against the Brewers after having a lackluster start against the Braves, where he went 6 innings, giving up just 3 hits, gave up 0 earned runs, and had 7 strikeouts.
If we can get another performance where Perez has at least decent command, he will have no issue recording 5 Ks.
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox 4:10 PM ET
James Wood Over 0.5 Hits (-212 per DraftKings)
Youngster James Wood has been an on-base machine over the last few games. He has recorded at least 1 hit in 3 of his last 5 games. In yesterday’s game against the White Sox, he ended up going 0 for 2, but was able to get on base 3 times via walk, so he is seeing the ball well.
Today he and the Nationals will be going up against rookie lefty Noah Schultz, who has been pretty effective in his 2 starts this season, but they are really managing the pitch count with him, so odds are we won’t see him for very long in this one. While Wood isn’t quite as good against lefties, his average doesn’t drop off too much against same-side pitching at .235 versus .257.
Against a relatively young White Sox team, I expect a few mistake pitches to come Wood’s way, so at least 1 hit this afternoon feels like a good way to go.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves 7:15 PM ET
Embed from Getty ImagesZack Wheeler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145 per DraftKings)
This pick is simply a workload fade, as Zack Wheeler is making his season debut, as he’s coming off his rehab assignment. Atlanta is notoriously difficult to strike out, especially when they are at home. Last night, for example, we saw Andrew Painter put up 1 K in 5.2 innings of work.
Wheeler generally has great strikeout stuff, and has been good against this Braves lineup throughout his career; however, considering he’s still getting back to form, and the majority of this lineup has seen him a multitude of times, this is an easy fade.
Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ Home Runs (+493 per DraftKings)
While this is obviously more of a shot in the dark, there are a lot of factors that benefit Ronald Acuna going deep this evening against the Phillies. For one, you have Zack Wheeler making his first start of the season, so command may not be where he wants it to be out of the gate, and Acuna has 4 homers against him in his career.
The wind is going to be blowing toward left field, which is obviously a huge benefit for right-handed hitters. Acuna also managed to hit a home run last night, and he has an average exit velocity of 88.6 this year, with a max exit velocity of 112.3, which is really impressive for a 5-tool guy.
With Acuna batting leadoff, it also lends to more opportunities to get ABs and go deep.

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