The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, April 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-22 (+9.01 units, ROI: 22.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 94-175 (-59.96 units, ROI: -22.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Systems Match (FADE): NY METS (+100 at CHC)

Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 37-18 (+12.32 units) on the ROAD vs NL opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 at AZ)

* Since the start of last season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) but a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 191-239 for -45.51 units (ROI: -10.6%).
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-115 at LAA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 37-19 start for +9.30 units and an ROI of +16.6%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-115 at WSH)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in q025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For q026, these teams are 1-3 for -2.48 units and an ROI of -62%.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+135 at PIT)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 7-13 for -7.15 units and an ROI of -35.8%.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-115 at LAA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, after a great last week, these teams are off to a 42-25 start for +3.50 units and an ROI of 5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-163 vs TB), DETROIT (-156 at BOS), MILWAUKEE (-105 at MIA), ATLANTA (+109 at PHI)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in ‘25. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 20-25 for +6.09 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+139 at ATH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the ’25 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 17-9 but for -5.55 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-308 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a solid start, 35-35 for +4.73 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+113 at MIN), MILWAUKEE (-105 at MIA), BALTIMORE (+119 at CLE), ATLANTA (+109 at PHI)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 22-23 start for +2.48 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+129 vs DET), TEXAS (+113 at SEA), LA ANGELS (-105 vs SD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 17-17 for +4.02 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+135 at NYY), NY METS (+100 at CHC), MIAMI (-115 vs MIL), PHILADELPHIA (-131 vs ATL), TORONTO (+129 at AZ)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 13-16 for -9.47 units.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-136 vs TEX)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 435-418 (51%) for +20.12 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-131 vs ATL), ATHLETICS (-168 vs CWS)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2012-1903 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -262.65 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, ST LOUIS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2016-2573 (43.9%) for -256.42 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, SAN DIEGO

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4076-3538 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -508.88 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, MIAMI, LA ANGELS, ARIZONA

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 605-500 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.97 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-136 vs CIN)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 85-129 SU (-23.12 units, ROI: -10.8%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-105 at MIA)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for a 181-213 SU record for +40.59 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-105 vs SF)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 469-529 SU but for +75.00 units (ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+135 at NYY), TAMPA BAY (+135 at PIT), NY METS (+100 at CHC), TORONTO (+129 at AZ)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more are on a 38-99 skid (-37.97 units, ROI -27.7%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 71-143 skid (-39.88 units, ROI: -18.6%).
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-22 (+9.01 units, ROI: 22.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 94-175 (-59.96 units, ROI: -22.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Systems Match (FADE): NY METS (+100 at CHC)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 141-143 (-60.01 units, ROI: -21.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-308 at COL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +244 (+63 diff), LA ANGELS -105 (+16), ATLANTA +109 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -120 (+21 diff), CLEVELAND -143 (+16)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-PHI OVER 7 (+0.8), LAD-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-AZ UNDER 9 (-1.0), SF-WSH UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

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The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) NEW YORK-NL (7-13) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (10-9)
Trend: Freddy Peralta is 16-7 (+6.70 units) vs Chicago teams (CWS/CHC) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (+100 at CHC)

Trend: When Freddy Peralta starts for a team, Under the total is 12-3 (+8.70 units) in the last 15 ROAD games versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-CHC (o/u at 8.5)

(953) SAN FRANCISCO (8-12) at (954) WASHINGTON (9-11)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 25-13 (+13.12 units) in the last 38 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-115 at WSH)

(957) ATLANTA (13-7) at (958) PHILADELPHIA (8-11)
Trend: PHI is 17-25 (-12.85 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-131 vs ATL)

(963) CHICAGO-AL (7-13) at (964) ATHLETICS (10-10)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 3-16 (-12.80 units) in the last 19 games as a road underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+139 at ATH)

Trend: Luis Severino is 30-14 (+13.85 units) against teams with a losing record in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-168 vs CWS)

(969) TEXAS (11-9) at (970) SEATTLE (8-13)
Trend: George Kirby’s teams are 10-1 (+9.07 units) in the last 11 starts vs Texas
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-136 vs TEX)

(977) TORONTO (7-12) at (978) ARIZONA (12-8)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 37-18 (+12.32 units) on the ROAD vs NL opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 at AZ)

Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Fri 4/17-Sun 4/19
Trend: DETROIT is 8-16 (33.3%, -7.12 units) in the last 24 games vs. Boston
–  The ROI on this trend is -29.7%
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-156 at BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the ‘24 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): NY METS, TEXAS, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, MIAMI, HOUSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS, PITTSBURGH, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, ARIZONA

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, April 20)

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Saturday, April 18 appeared first on VSiN.