The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 359-391 but for +99.90 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+129 at PIT), COLORADO (+141 at HOU)
Trend: TEX is 8-16 (-8.08 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-120 at ATH)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 371-185 (66.8%) for +51.47 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-131 vs SF)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse recordIn the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 34-19 start for +5.65 units and an ROI of +10.7%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+141 at HOU)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, after a great last week, these teams are off to a 40-24 start for +4.58 units and an ROI of 7.2%.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-300 vs LAA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 19-23 for +6.68 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+238 at NYY), HOUSTON (-171 vs COL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 12-3 for +5.46 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. I would expect this to cool.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-300 vs LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longPerhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a conservative start, 29-32 for +0.65 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+100 vs KC), COLORADO (+141 at HOU), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaksI have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 20-21 start for +3.29 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (-102 vs TEX), HOUSTON (-171 vs COL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaksAround midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 15-14 for +4.81 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at CIN), KANSAS CITY (-120 at DET)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaksBetter bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 11-15 for -10.76 units.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+141 at HOU)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 411-432 but for +32.92 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at CIN), KANSAS CITY (-122 at DET), COLORADO (+141 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 359-391 but for +99.90 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+129 at PIT), COLORADO (+141 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 373-319 but for -79.70 units and an ROI of -11.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-126 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 637-740 record, but for +22.77 units and an ROI of 1.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+129 at PIT), KANSAS CITY (-122 at DET), SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at CIN), LA ANGELS (+234 at NYY), TORONTO (+109 at MIL), COLORADO (+141 at HOU)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingYou’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2012-2569 (43.9%) for -257.68 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-122 at DET), WASHINGTON (+129 at PIT), TORONTO (+109 at MIL), COLORADO (+141 at HOU)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outingGoing back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4070-3532 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -505.20 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-131 vs SF), NY YANKEES (-293 vs LAA), SAN DIEGO (+102 vs SEA), ATHLETICS (+100 vs TEX)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hitHome teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 604-498 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +32.02 units, for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-156 vs WSH), MILWAUKEE (-131 vs TOR)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favoritesHome favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 371-185 (66.8%) for +51.47 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-131 vs SF)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 39-137 SU for -45.00 units in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+234 at NYY)
When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 91-56-6 (61.9%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-NYY (o/u at 9.5)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 463-525 SU but for +71.20 units (ROI: 7.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at CIN), WASHINGTON (+129 at PIT), BALTIMORE (+104 at CLE), TORONTO (+109 at MIL), COLORADO (+141 at HOU)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 181-147 (+12.67 units, ROI: 3.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+100 vs KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 237-157 in their last 394 tries (+34.36 units, ROI: 8.7%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-131 at CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 140-142 (-60.01 units, ROI: -21.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-131 at CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: LA ANGELS +238 (+57 diff), ATHLETICS +100 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -126 (+19 diff), CINCINNATI -131 (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: TEX-ATH OVER 8.5 (+0.5), COL-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: KC-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), SEA-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(961) TEXAS (9-9) at (962) ATHLETICS (10-8)Trend: TEX is 8-16 (-8.08 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-120 at ATH)
(963) BALTIMORE (9-9) at (964) CLEVELAND (10-9)Trend: Shane Baz’s teams are 20-10 (+10.25 units) within the -130 to +125 line range since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+104 at CLE)
(969) SEATTLE (8-11) at (970) SAN DIEGO (12-6)Trend: Walker Buehler is 20-10 vs AL teams (+8.10 units) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+102 vs SEA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): WASHINGTON, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, April 17)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Thursday, April 16 appeared first on VSiN.
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