Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Date: October 26th at 4:05 PM ET

Where to Watch: Fox

In one of three games during the 4:00 NFL slate, we’ll see an NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers are coming off a Monday night performance they’d like to forget, and it appears they’ve lost star wideout Mike Evans for an extended period. After Monday’s loss, Tampa Bay now sits at 5-2 on the season and will look to bounce back this week in New Orleans. They currently rank 16th in total offense (338.9) and 13th in scoring (24.9 points). Defensively, they’ve been slightly worse, ranking 17th in yards allowed (328) and 22nd in points allowed (25).

The Saints, meanwhile, are coming off a poor performance last week in Chicago, dropping their record to 1-6. Their offense has struggled, ranking 23rd in yards per game (297.9) and 29th in scoring (17.9). The defense hasn’t been much better, sitting 19th in yards allowed (335.7) and 27th in points allowed (26.6). If it hasn’t been obvious up to this point—and really since the start of the season—this is a rebuilding year for the Saints. This should be a spot where the Bucs come in, take care of business, and move on with their season, but we’ll have to see what happens on Sunday.

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Betting Overview

When this game opened, we saw Tampa listed as a -5.5 favorite, but the line has since shifted toward New Orleans, with the Bucs now sitting between -3.5 and -4.5. The moneylines have stayed relatively consistent, as Tampa Bay is around -210 after opening at -225, while the Saints opened at +185 and can still be found around that number.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Kellen Moore and his staff are still navigating their first season together. It’s not really their fault, but they just don’t have the same level of experience as Todd Bowles and his group, which gives Tampa the edge here.

DLs vs. OLs: The Bucs haven’t been very good and are banged up on both sides of the line. The Saints haven’t been much better, but they’re certainly healthier, so I’d give New Orleans the edge up front in this one.

QBs: While Spencer Rattler hasn’t been bad, he did take a step back last week against Chicago, and now faces a current MVP candidate in Baker Mayfield. I’d like to see Mayfield put last week behind him and get back to where he’d been in the weeks prior.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: I’d probably lean toward the Saints here as well. Alvin Kamara is better than any of Tampa’s backs, Juwan Johnson has put together an impressive season, and the Saints’ linebacking corps is stronger overall.

WRs vs. Secondaries: This matchup could go either way, but given how Baker has been able to elevate average wide receivers—and with Emeka Egbuka still in the lineup—I’d give the Bucs the slight edge here, even with the Saints being a bit better in the secondary.

Betting Trends

In the last 10 matchups between these NFC South foes, the Bucs have won 6, but the Saints have covered 6 of those games, and the under has hit in 7. In last year’s meetings, the Bucs won both games but only covered the one in New Orleans, with the over hitting in each.

The Bucs enter this game with a 4-3 ATS record on the season. Tampa has been very solid on the road, going 3-1 ATS, and is 1-0 ATS within the division. We’ve also seen the over hit in 4 of 7 games for Tampa, though the under has been more favorable on the road, cashing in 3 of 4. In their lone divisional game, the under also hit.

New Orleans has not been strong against the spread, sitting at 2-5 overall and 1-3 at home this season (with this being their first divisional game). The under has been slightly more favorable, hitting in 4 of 7 overall, and even more so at home, where it’s hit in 3 of 4.

Final Thoughts

This is certainly not an easy game from a betting standpoint, especially with the in-division aspect. While New Orleans didn’t look great last week, they are at home, and the Bucs are pretty banged up right now, so I’d lean slightly toward the Saints to cover. As for the total, I’d probably lean toward the under.