Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (-130, 7.5) at New York Mets
The Reds (28-25) won last night’s series opener 7-2, coming through as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds hand the ball to righty Chase Burns (6-1, 1.83 ERA) and the Mets (22-32) turn to lefty David Peterson (3-4, 5.03 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -120 road favorite and New York a +100 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Reds at a cheap chalk price, steaming Cincinnati up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Reds are taking in 76% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Cincinnati has betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Reds have the more productive bats, posting a .310 OBP, .393 slug and 236 runs scored compared to the Mets posting a .293 OBP, .350 slug and 208 runs scored.
Burns has posted a 0.72 ERA in four May starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. Cincinnati is 7-3 in Burns’ ten starts this season.
Meanwhile, Peterson is 1-2 with a 6.33 ERA at home this season.
Cincinnati is 14-13 on the road. New York is 11-14 at home.
7:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-185, 8)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Brewers (31-20) won last night’s series opener 5-1, taking care of business as -240 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cardinals (29-23) start righty Michael McGreevy (3-3, 2.40 ERA) and the Brewers counter with lefty Kyle Harrison (5-1, 1.77 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -165 home favorite and St. Louis a +145 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Brew Crew to earn another victory at home, driving Milwaukee up from -165 to -185.
At Circa, Milwaukee is taking in 43% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
The Brewers offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is favored to win.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Brewers here, are 54-31 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Milwaukee has the superior offense, hitting .248 with a .334 OBP and 251 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .239 with a .320 OBP and 234 runs scored.
Harrison has posted a 1.23 ERA in four May starts (all wins), allowing only 3 earned runs in 22 innings pitched. Milwaukee is 7-1 in Harrison’s last eight starts.
9:45 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-115, 8)
The Diamondbacks (29-24) won yesterday’s series opener 6-2, cashing as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Diamondbacks tap lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (4-1, 2.24 ERA) and the Giants (22-32) rebuttal with righty Tyler Mahle (1-6, 6.10 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -115 home favorite and Arizona a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with Arizona, as the line has either stayed the same at Diamondbacks -105 or slightly moved toward Arizona -110.
At DraftKings, Arizona is receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Snakes are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road team.
Divisional dogs off a win, like the Diamondbacks here, are 56-52 (52%) with a 16% ROI this season.
Arizona has a sizable edge at the plate, posting a .314 OBP, .404 slug and 245 runs scored compared to San Francisco posting a .294 OBP, .385 slug and 197 runs scored.
Rodriguez has posted a 1.30 ERA in four May starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 27.2 innings pitched. Arizona is 7-1 in Rodriguez’s last eight starts.
On the other hand, Mahle has posted a 6.43 ERA in four May starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 21 innings pitched. San Francisco is 3-7 in Mahle’s ten starts this season.
The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Tuesday May 26th appeared first on VSiN.

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