Entering last week’s race at Coronado, I shared how Shane Van Gisbergen was the obvious favorite heading into the weekend. But I questioned the degree to which he was favored by oddsmakers because of how he looked on my initial simulation. In fact, he was nowhere close to the level of statistical dominance that Denny Hamlin showed the previous week at Pocono.
Embed from Getty ImagesWell, after watching the truck race on Friday night, my skepticism of the price grew even more. Having never previously seen the Naval Base course layout, I was frankly scared after watching the calamity in the Friday night race. The course was very tight in some key areas, while very open in others. The latter allowed for a lot of maneuvering by cars for positions and a natural logjam in the places where there wasn’t as much room. On top of that, the walls enclosing the cars were firm and capable of wrecking equipment. As it turns out, when SVG got behind early after some bad pit strategy luck, he got desperate, and when he was close to the front again, he caused a wreck that took his car and several other contenders with it.
His -225 to win line and everything that accompanied it was dead. That said, this week’s race at Sonoma, the final road course event of the season, is a different animal, and with SVG lined up as the biggest favorite of the season on my initial simulation, I would have no problem backing him at -150 to win this week.
The reason Sonoma is an entirely different animal than the Naval Base Coronado is that it is the Cup Series’ longest-running road course venue, and there are no walls enclosing the action. In other words, mistakes aren’t as frequent because drivers are very familiar with the course, and mistakes aren’t nearly as costly because cars aren’t damaged irreparably. This gives SVG a huge advantage, and he will clearly be extra motivated coming off a 38th-place finish last week and with this being perhaps his last realistic shot at a win this season. The fact that this is the last road event of the year will not be lost on him or Trackhouse Racing.
SVG ran a near-perfect race here a year ago, winning from the pole while accumulating a driver rating of 149.3 out of a possible 150. Of course, other guys have victory on their minds for the Toyota Save Mart 350, most notably the closest competitors to SVG on my simulation: Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney. Of those, Larson is the only previous Sonoma winner, doing so in 2024. He is seemingly gaining momentum every week.
Sonoma Raceway is a 1.949-mile course laid out in the hills of California wine country. It gets a B- on my handicap-ability scale, and while there are not many cautions here (5.0 per race last four), there are often smaller incidents on track that can cause drivers to lose a lot of positions. While only four drivers have been knocked out of races here over the last four years in accidents, these minor dustups can affect finishing spots dramatically, depending on when they happen. As is the case with most road courses, the most critical simulation factors at Sonoma have proven to be starting spot and recent driver performance on road courses. Thus, it would behoove bettors to wait until qualifying is completed on Saturday to post their wagers.
Not surprisingly, the odds board for this week at DraftKings is dominated by the usual road course suspects, with SVG (-150) again the significant favorite, followed by Connor Zilisch (+850), Tyler Reddick (+850) and Kyle Larson (+900). No one else is better than +1400.
Before digging into what to look for statistically at Sonoma, here’s a quick wrap-up of the damaging results that happened last week at Coronado, and an overall look at how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 17 races.
Initial Coronado simulation winner: Loser (-2.25 units) – NOW +0.35 units for the season
Final Coronado Simulation winner: Loser (-2.25 units) – NOW +32.55 units for the season!
Final Coronado Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -3.25 units – NOW +25.85 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Coronado projections: one winner, two losers, Larson +400 – total return -4 units – NOW -4.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Coronado projections: one winner, four losers, Larson +185 – total return -13.15 units – Now -17.3 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Coronado projections: three winners (Larson, Blaney, McDowell), seven losers, — total return -32.15 units – Now -39.1 units for the season
SVG’s top-10 odds were -2500 at Coronado, and to be perfectly frank, I could never in my wildest dreams advise taking these types of ridiculous odds in a NASCAR race featuring 39 drivers. Particularly at a race being run for the first time. The DraftKings prices on him and a few other drivers last week were utter insanity and hopefully no one got wrecked by it. While I personally didn’t get harmed that badly on my bankroll, the numbers I am required to post above did. Hopefully we can recover quickly with several highly graded tracks coming up.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
My personal top 5 Coronado projections: one winner, four losers, Larson +185 — total return -13.15 units – Now -29.15 units for the season
Top Coronado Longshots to win: four losers –total return -4 units – Now -5 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Coronado: Logano (18th), Byron (32nd), Hamlin (14th), Wallace (2nd), Elliott (12th) – Now 50 for 66 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
I continued my run of success by nailing four of five drivers to struggle, finishing outside the top 10. However, the SVG wreck killed my numbers for the season, in fact, nearly doubling the losses on the top 5 predictions. I MUST reiterate … laying 7-1 for a guy to finish top 3, 12-1 to finish top 5, or 25-1 to finish top 10 is irresponsible wagering in NASCAR. I will never back this. That said, I could probably get behind laying the -150 for SVG to win this week, and I would be actually surprised if he doesn’t take Sunday’s checkered flag.
Looking ahead to Sonoma on Sunday, here are the leaders in the Next Gen car era for the last four Sonoma races. Again, I have decided to limit the number of drivers I am looking at in these stat leaders to those most offered on the typical betting platforms:
Average STARTING POSITION last four SONOMA races1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 1
2. Tyler Reddick: 4.25
3. Chase Elliott: 7.25
4. Ty Gibbs: 7.33
5. Kyle Larson: 8.25
6. Michael McDowell: 8.5
…
25. Todd Gilliland: 26.25
26. John Hunter Nemechek: 27.5
27. Austin Cindric: 27.75
28. Ricky Stenhouse: 28
29. Josh Berry: 28.5
30. Erik Jones: 32.5
Average PRACTICE SPEED last four SONOMA races1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 3
2. Ty Gibbs: 4.67
3. Kyle Larson: 5.25
4. AJ Allmendinger: 6.75
5. Ross Chastain: 7
6. Chase Elliott: 7.25
…
25. Christopher Bell: 23
26. Erik Jones: 24
27. Carson Hocevar: 24.5
28. Todd Gilliland: 24.75
29. Ryan Preece: 25.33
30. Ricky Stenhouse: 26
Average RUNNING POSITION last four SONOMA races1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 1
2. Chris Buescher: 7.75
3. Chase Elliott: 8.25
4. Michael McDowell: 9.25
5. Ross Chastain: 11
6. Kyle Larson: 11.25
…
25. Denny Hamlin: 23.25
26. Darrell Wallace: 25.25
27. Erik Jones: 25.75
28. Noah Gragson: 26
29. Josh Berry: 26
30. John Hunter Nemechek: 28.5
Average LAPS LED last four SONOMA races1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 97
2. Kyle Larson: 12
3. Daniel Suarez: 11.75
4. Chris Buescher: 9
5. Chase Elliott: 9
6. Tyler Reddick: 8.75
…
16. Alex Bowman: 0
17. William Byron: 0
18. Ryan Preece: 0
19. Ty Gibbs: 0
20. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
21. Austin Cindric: 0
22. Carson Hocevar: 0
23. Austin Dillon: 0
24. Todd Gilliland: 0
25. Zane Smith: 0
26. Darrell Wallace: 0
27. Erik Jones: 0
28. Noah Gragson: 0
29. Josh Berry: 0
30. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four SONOMA races1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 149.3
2. Chris Buescher: 111.58
3. Chase Elliott: 106.78
4. Michael McDowell: 104.73
5. Kyle Larson: 96.4
6. Ross Chastain: 92.58
…
25. Carson Hocevar: 53.2
26. Darrell Wallace: 48.13
27. Josh Berry: 44.2
28. Erik Jones: 42.5
29. Noah Gragson: 37.35
30. John Hunter Nemechek: 35.1
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four SONOMA races1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 110
2. Chris Buescher: 97.75
3. Chase Elliott: 96.75
4. Michael McDowell: 95.25
5. Ross Chastain: 84.25
6. Kyle Larson: 80.25
…
25. Zane Smith: 22.33
26. Noah Gragson: 14
27. Erik Jones: 13.25
28. Darrell Wallace: 11.5
29. Josh Berry: 11
30. John Hunter Nemechek: 2
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four SONOMA races1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 1
2. Michael McDowell: 4
3. Chase Elliott: 5
4. Chris Buescher: 6.25
5. Ross Chastain: 11.5
6. AJ Allmendinger: 12.25
…
25. Darrell Wallace: 24.75
26. Erik Jones: 25.5
27. Zane Smith: 25.67
28. John Hunter Nemechek: 28.5
29. Denny Hamlin: 31.25
30. Noah Gragson: 31.5
Obviously, SVG is the dominant driver on all of these lists. However, he has run only one race here, albeit a near-perfect one. Could his lack of experience be a factor? Well, considering this track is probably closest to the types of courses he ran in his racing background in Australia, I would say no. Also, interestingly, on the final list for average finishing position, you will see Denny Hamlin ranked 29th of the 30 drivers tracked. Last week at Coronado, he finished 14th and was never really a factor. I would be surprised to see him running anywhere near the front again here. However, when we head to Chicagoland for the Fourth of July weekend race next, he should be back to being a top contender.
With all of these stats in mind, my top-rated simulation drivers for Sonoma are SVG, Elliott, Buescher, McDowell, Bell. For designation ROAD COURSE, the top 5 list is SVG, Reddick, Blaney, McDowell, Gibbs. For recent ratings, the top 5 are Hamlin, Larson, Reddick, Gibbs, Blaney. A reminder that the most important simulation factor for road courses in general has been qualifying spot, followed by how each driver fares at road courses. All of this goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying, which is set for 2 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which WILL change a bit on Sunday in the morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:
Top 5: SVG, Larson, Gibbs, Reddick, Elliott
Top underdogs to consider: McDowell, Gibbs, Blaney, Allmendinger
Favorites to fade: Wallace, Briscoe, Byron, Hamlin, Hocevar
The 100-lap event at Sonoma Raceway is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
The post Toyota Save Mart 350 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots appeared first on VSiN.
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