We didn’t have any official plays on Wednesday, as there were two very ugly matchups in the W; however, Thursday night’s two-game slate is about as good as it gets, with matchups between the Minnesota Lynx & Golden State Valkyries, as well as the Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream. I’ve got one play that I really like for Thursday, so let’s get to the projections.

Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 163.5

Minnesota has won five straight games and is currently the top team in the WNBA standings. Oddly enough, their only two losses of the season have come at home, where they’ve allowed 6 more points per game than they have on the road, while scoring about the same. The Valkyries are 6-3 and have won three of their last four games, and are 2-1 on the road this season. Their scoring and points allowed have been about the same on the road and at home. TSI projects Minnesota -1.5 with a total of 168. These teams’ respective home/away games have averaged around 170 points, so I really like the Over here as the only official play of the night.

Bet: Over 163.5 (Play to 165.5)

Indiana Fever (-1.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 173.5

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Indiana is right up there with New York in the “underwhelming preseason title favorites” category. They’re just 4-4 so far on the season, including 3-2 at home, where they’re scoring a whopping 9 points per game more than they are on the road, while giving up about the same amount of points defensively at home and on the road. Atlanta is 6-2 coming into tonight, including 3-1 on the road. The Dream have scored similarly on the road and at home, but are allowing about 4 points more per game on the road than they have at home. TSI projects Atlanta as a half-point favorite here with a total of 171. Based on the home/road performance splits of these teams, my preference would be Indiana and Over, but the numbers disagree completely, so I’m going to pass on this game.

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