Forty-four days. That’s all that stands between us and the greatest sporting competition on earth.

Just like Russia and Qatar, the buildup to this year’s FIFA World Cup has centered on relentless criticism. Yet the moment that opening whistle blows for Mexico vs. South Africa in the Estadio Azteca, the world’s focus will shift to the pitch as 48 nations remind us exactly why the World Cup is so magical.

And for bettors, that’s where the real tournament begins. The expansion from 32 to 48 teams gives us 104 matches, and a wider gulf between the best and worst nations in quality and squad depth. Below is where I think the value lies on the futures board and opening matchday lines.

World Cup Futures

FRANCE TO LIFT THE TROPHY +500

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I have a +700 ticket for France to win and I’m feeling better about it as every day passes. Les Bleus enter this tournament with arguably the deepest squad in the world and crucially, they arrive healthy.

Currently, Kylian Mbappé is sidelined with a hamstring injury with recent reports focused on him missing El Clásico in two weeks. France’s captain should be fit and firing by June 16th when they kick off their campaign against Senegal. The only confirmed high-profile absentee is Hugo Ekitiké. With Ousmane Dembélé, Rayan Cherki, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola, and Michael Olise fit, healthy and in form I think his impact would have come from the bench.

Compare that to Spain, the side currently joint-favorite with France, where Lamine Yamal’s seat on the plane is in doubt. The 18-year-old is one of, if not the key player in their ranks. At such a young age he has already racked up 174 senior appearances for Barcelona (149) and Spain (25). That heavy workload has resulted in a torn hamstring at a devastating time. At 18, Yamal’s body is still growing and I hope the decision is made to protect his long-term health. He has 3 to 4 World Cups ahead of him. And even if he does make it this year, there’s no guarantee he’ll replicate his best form with this being the first muscle injury of his career.

France’s group draw – Norway, Senegal and Iraq – is tougher than most. I believe this will work in their favor as Les Bleus have to hit the ground running. This momentum will propel them through the knockout stages all the way to the final at MetLife Stadium.

My only concern is manager Didier Deschamps, who’s been at the helm since 2012. Many argue he’s long overstayed his welcome due to underwhelming displays at Euro 2020 and 2024 and his conservative approach underutilizing France’s attacking riches. However, Deschamps’ best moments have come at the World Cup delivering the trophy in 2018, and narrowly losing the 2022 Final on penalties. A squad this talented combined with Deschamps’ experience should be enough for them to repeat 2018 and lift the trophy again.

Grab France +500 whilst you still can.

NORWAY TO REACH THE QUARTERFINALS +260

+260 for a side with Erling Haaland leading the line is a number you have to take notice of.

International football operates differently from club football. Limited time on the training pitch makes it difficult for managers to implement sophisticated tactical plans. Setups tend to be pragmatic rather than elaborate. The teams that go deep aren’t always the most talented on paper — they’re the ones who are able to work out the best sum of their parts and execute a coherent plan.

Norway have found that plan with a compact 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 formation which resulted in 5 goals conceded, 37 goals scored and 8-game winning streak in qualifying. Manager Ståle Solbakken has them sitting compact and defending zonally which makes them hard to break down. When possession is won the ball moves forward quickly, with Martin Ødegaard pulling the strings and Haaland the focal point of every transition.

Yes, Norway are in a tough group – France, Senegal and Iraq – but we have to remember 32 teams of the 48 progress to the Knockout Stage. It’s likely 3 points and a positive goal difference will be enough to move on, which they should be able to secure with a big win against Iraq. Once there, one performance, one Ødegaard delivery, one Haaland moment, can be the difference. At +260, the market is undervaluing how far this Norway side can go.

MOROCCO TO REACH LAST 16 +125

The circumstances surrounding Morocco’s AFCON title earlier this year will follow them to this tournament. CAF stripping Senegal of the trophy and awarding it to Morocco on a technicality — after Senegal’s players left the pitch in protest — remains deeply controversial, with Senegal’s appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport still ongoing. Set all of that aside. What matters from a betting perspective is what it tells us about this Morocco squad: they know how to handle tournament football, how to navigate pressure, and how to advance through knockout stages.

They arrive at this World Cup in Group C alongside Brazil, Haiti and Scotland. Brazil are the standout side and favorites to top the group, but second place is Morocco’s to lose. Haiti and Scotland represent very winnable matches for a side that reached the World Cup semifinal in 2022 and carries genuine quality across the pitch with players like Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Díaz.

The expanded format also works in Morocco’s favor. With 32 of 48 teams advancing, even a third-place finish in the group keeps the door open. A favorable draw in the Round of 32 and this experienced Morocco side should cruise into the Last 16.

TÜRKIYE TO WIN GROUP D +200

Cast an eye over what Türkiye are bringing to this tournament. Arda Güler has been one of Real Madrid’s standout players this season scoring 6 goals and providing 14 assists. Kenan Yıldız has been excellent for Juventus with 11 goals and 9 assists. Captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu has contributed 12 goals and 7 assists from midfield during Inter Milan’s all but confirmed 21st Scudetto. Bariş Alpar Yilmaz has shone in Istanbul scoring 10 goals and laying on 11 assists for Galatasaray who are close to securing their fourth Turkish Süper Lig title in a row. This is a squad dripping with attacking creativity, goal threats, and players arriving at this tournament in form, full of confidence and riding the high of qualifying via the UEFA Playoffs with back-to-back 1-0 wins over Romania and Kosovo.

Then there’s the group. Australia are very beatable. Paraguay are defensively solid, but limited going forward, scoring just 14 goals and conceding 10 across their 18 qualifying games. And the USMNT, despite home advantage, arrive under enormous pressure and in poor form. Automatic qualification as a host nation is a double-edged sword. You book your place well in advance, but the friendlies in the lead up rarely replicate the competitive intensity needed to prepare for an occasion of this magnitude. Recent results — a 5-2 loss to Belgium and 2-0 defeat to Portugal — exposed a team short on form, confidence and cohesion with little evidence they can handle the weight of a nation on their shoulders.

Türkiye are the most dangerous side in this group on current form. Back them to take top spot at +200.

OPENING MATCHDAY 1 LINES BEST BETS

Türkiye -115 vs Australia (Moneyline)

If you’ve read the case for Türkiye to win Group D then you already know what they’re bringing to this tournament. Now consider what’s lining up against them.

Australia made the bold decision to move from the Oceania Football Confederation to the Asian Football Confederation in 2006 to test themselves against stronger opposition and accelerate their development. Two decades on, the results have been mixed at best with exits in 2010, 2014 and 2018 at the Group Stage. In 2022 they made it to the Last 16 where they were knocked out by Lionel Messi’s Argentina.

In 2026, they arrive with a squad lacking quality and a standout star. Long gone are the days of Tim Cahill, Harry Kewell and Mark Viduka. The best they have to offer is goalkeeper Mathew Ryan of Levante and midfielder Jackson Irvine of St. Pauli who are both fighting relegation at their respective clubs.

-115 is great value for what is anything but an even contest. Back Türkiye to kick off the World Cup with 3 points.

Group Stage Moneyline Parlay (+141)

The recent UEFA Champions League expansion to 36 teams in the Swiss Model format has highlighted the gulf in quality and squad depth between Europe’s elite and the smaller clubs from around the continent.

We will see the same thing at this year’s World Cup with the expansion from 32 to 48 teams. The additional 16 spots have opened the door for Curaçao, Cape Verde and Uzbekistan to make their debuts. DR Congo last appeared in 1974 as Zaire and Iraq haven’t appeared since 1986, a 40-year absence. All five kick off Matchday 1 against solid experienced nations which is a great opportunity to roll the favorites into a +141 Moneyline Parlay

·       Portugal -350 to beat DR Congo

·       Spain -1600 to beat Cape Verde

·       Germany -6000 to beat Curaçao

·       Norway -370 to beat Iraq

·       Colombia -270 to beat Uzbekistan

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