We’re set to see the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs battle it out for the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy in the 2025-26 NBA Finals. This is a rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals, which ended with the Spurs winning in five games. It’s also a rematch of the similarly important 2025 Emirates NBA Cup Championship Game, which the Knicks won 124-113 in Las Vegas. New York actually took the regular-season series from San Antonio, winning two of the three games these teams played. Will that matter heading into the NBA Finals? Let’s get into it with a preview and prediction for this series. Make sure you also check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will have all of our NBA Finals betting content!

Knicks vs. Spurs NBA Finals Preview

The Case for the Knicks

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This New York team is the hottest team in basketball. Say what you want about the quality of competition, but the numbers don’t lie. The Knicks enter this series on an 11-game winning streak, they have outscored opponents by a record 271 points in 14 playoff games, and their 126.7 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs is a league-best mark — and it would have been in the regular season too. They’re also first in the postseason in points allowed per 100 possessions (104.8). So, while the offense has been historically great, it’s not like they’re skimping on the other end.

New York has just been obliterating teams, even in series in which there were reasons to believe in the opponent. A big part of that has to do with Jalen Brunson continuing to be the league’s most productive scorer at the guard spot. Brunson is averaging 26.9 points and 6.6 assists per game in the playoffs, and he’s going to be confident in his ability to cook against this San Antonio backcourt. Brunson is a good off-the-dribble shooter, his touch in the mid-range area is out of this world, and he’s as good as any player in the league when it comes to manipulating defenses. All of that is crucial over the course of an entire game, but it’s also big when you factor in the final five minutes. If the Knicks find themselves in close games, they’ll be able to lean on Brunson’s shot creation to get them home.

Karl-Anthony Towns is also a unique weapon for New York heading into this series. The big man has been tremendous as a playmaking hub in these playoffs, upping his assists per game from 3.0 in the regular season to 5.9 in the postseason. Towns is also a knockdown shooter, banging home 48.9% of his threes in the playoffs. That can be huge in this specific matchup. Victor Wembanyama just got to spend seven games defending Chet Holmgren, who was miserable offensively for the entirety of the Western Conference Finals. And Holmgren’s struggles gave Wembanyama the option of playing a little more free safety, allowing him to dominate games as a rim protector. Well, if Towns is knocking down threes, and picking defenses apart from the elbows, Wembanyama might not be able to sit around the rim and alter everything in sight. That’ll allow Brunson and some of the other New York slashers to actually make plays at the cup.

It’s also hard not to feel like the Knicks have a major advantage when looking at the wings in this series. Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart make up quite the trio when looking at New York’s off-ball perimeter options. Bridges is an awesome two-way player that has come alive as a shooter, and he’s also knocking down some tough shots off the bounce. Anunoby is another high-level forward, capable of burying open looks and attacking closeouts on one end. He also guards one through five on the other, and he’ll be a legitimate defensive option for Wembanyama when the Knicks opt to go small. Meanwhile, Hart’s game isn’t quite as pretty as the others, but he’s a warrior that fills up the stat sheet and plays both ends of the floor. He’ll likely find a way to contribute to winning here. These three will be crucial in determining the outcome of this series. If the Spurs are weak anywhere, it’s the forward spots.

The Knicks were also able to rely on their depth in the first three series they played, and that wasn’t an option last year. But New York is getting contributions from everywhere, and that shouldn’t change as long as Mitchell Robinson’s broken pinky doesn’t completely throw him off as a wrecking-ball center off the bench. Robinson’s ability to move his feet defensively, and crash the glass offensively, makes him a major asset for New York.

Mike Brown has also pressed all the right buttons in the playoffs. He has proven to be an upgrade over Tom Thibodeau, and Knicks fans and backers will feel confident with him on the sidelines. Brown has also had a long time to get his team ready, as New York will be going on nine days of rest when Game 1 tips. That’s not only good for Brown, but it’s also good for the bodies of his players.

The Case for the Spurs

The wings for San Antonio might not be good enough in this series. On paper, Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie don’t stack up very well against what New York has to offer at the forward spots. However, those two can at least shoot the crap out of the three-ball, spacing the floor for everyone else in this rotation. And the Spurs stack up very well everywhere else.

For as good as Brunson is, the Knicks might not get the same production out of their All-NBA performer as the Spurs will get out of their three-headed monster of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. All three of those guys can attack downhill, make plays for others, and knock down jumpers — whether that’s off the dribble or when left open. The three of them also have the luxury of getting to hunt Brunson, who is one of the worst guard defenders in basketball. Also, pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop actions with Wembanyama will give these guards some opportunities to attack Towns, who is foul-prone and can’t move his feet quick enough.

Castle is also a good enough perimeter defender to have moments in which he really makes Brunson uncomfortable. Castle is big, strong, and wise beyond his years when it comes to defensive awareness. He’s also insanely competitive, and he’s going to take pride in handling this assignment. Also, not only will Brunson have to attack a tough group of point-of-attack options, but he’ll also have to find ways to finish over Wembanyama. That won’t be easy when the big Frenchman isn’t being pulled far away from the basket.

Wembanyama’s defensive ability is otherworldly. I mentioned Towns’ ability to space the floor potentially being a factor in pulling Wembanyama away from the rim, but the Frenchman can contest without fully committing. That’s how freakishly long and coordinated he is. Then, inside, he can get his hands up and make the Knicks work for absolutely everything. He just needs to make sure he stays out of foul trouble.

It also could be huge for San Antonio that New York will be eager to continue playing Hart. When the wing is out there, the Spurs can pay a little less attention to him, as his three-ball isn’t very consistent. That’ll allow San Antonio to lock down other guys. And if the Knicks opt to play Landry Shamet over Hart to end games, good luck to them. That might have worked against the Cavaliers, but the Spurs guards are athletic and explosive enough to blow by Shamet while also adequately covering him on the other end.

It’s also hard to make a definitive statement about coaching, but Mitch Johnson does seem like a better X’s-and-O’s coach than Brown. Some of that might come from the help he’s getting from the legendary Gregg Popovich, who is now a hands-on front office executive. But if Johnson and his staff were able to out-fox Daigneault last round — and Chris Finch the round before — then they can do the same against Brown.

On top of all of that, San Antonio does have home-court advantage. That could make up for the rest advantage New York was able to secure with the sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Knicks vs. Spurs NBA Finals Pick

I went into this series thinking I’d be on either the Knicks or the Over on 5.5 games. However, it does scare me how trendy New York will be. The Knicks had a winning record against the Spurs during the regular season, they come into this series with a huge rest advantage, they just ran through the Eastern Conference with nothing but blowout victories, and they’re the biggest brand in basketball. Despite all of that, New York is available at a price that most analysts believe is too generous. That said, while I might be overthinking things a bit, I’m laying off the Knicks. After all, heading into the postseason, I did believe that the winner of the West would beat the winner of the East. Maybe it’s best I don’t go back on that. I also happen to have a 25-1 ticket on San Antonio to win the NBA title, so rooting against that wouldn’t be very fun. So, as boring as it might be, I don’t have any actual pre-flop plays on the sides or totals here. I will, however, take Champagnie to lead the series in threes made.

Champagnie is knocking down 2.6 made triples per game in the postseason. There isn’t a player on either team averaging more than that, and it does feel like Champagnie’s place in the San Antonio rotation in cemented. In Saturday’s Game 7 against the best team in basketball, Champagnie played 38 minutes and closed the game over Vassell. He’s just a massive part of this rotation, he’s a knockdown stand-still shooter, and he’s a bit of an afterthought when thinking about the opposing team’s scouting report. That’s a great combination as we look for him to win this for us.

Finals Pick: Champagnie Series Threes Leader (+260 – 0.5 units)

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