Spurs vs. Blazers Western Conference Series Preview:

In the first round of the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs, we’re set to see the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers clash in the Western Conference. The Spurs went 2-1 in this head-to-head series during the regular season, and the two wins were double-digit victories. San Antonio also happens to be a massive betting favorite coming into this. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!

Spurs vs. Blazers Series Odds

(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, April 15 at 2:30 pm ET)

Series Winner: Spurs -2000, Blazers +1000

Series Spread: Spurs -2.5 Games (-210), Blazers +2.5 Games (+170)

Series Total: Over 5.5 Games (+210), Under 5.5 Games (-260)

Spurs vs. Blazers Series Prediction

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Given the way the Suns and Blazers played down the stretch, it’s clear the Spurs got the tougher of the two matchups. After the All-Star break, Portland went 15-11 with the league’s third-best raw defensive rating (109.3) to finish the regular season. Meanwhile, Phoenix finished the year out with a 13-14 record and barely had a positive net rating (+0.5).

Still, while San Antonio could be in for a bit of a tougher series, it’s hard to be worried about the Spurs letting this slip away. In looking at a full season’s body of work, there’s just a massive difference between these two teams. The Spurs have an adjusted net rating of +8.0 this season, and that’s the second-best mark in basketball. Meanwhile, the Blazers are down at 20th in adjusted net rating (-0.3), so this isn’t remotely close. San Antonio also happens to be third in the NBA in both adjusted offensive rating (118.8) and adjusted defensive rating (110.8). Portland, which is viewed as a defensive-minded team, is down at 11th in adjusted defensive rating (113.5). The Blazers are also just 21st in adjusted offensive rating (113.2).

The numbers at Cleaning The Glass also show you how wide the gap is here. San Antonio is third in the NBA in halfcourt points per 100 possessions (120.3); Portland is down at 20th in the NBA, scoring only 114.2 points per 100. Then, defensively, the Spurs are third in halfcourt points allowed per 100 (111.4), while the Blazers are tied for 11th (114.5).

Outside of just looking at some of the big-picture metrics, the style of play could make things tricky on Portland. The Blazers rely so heavily on Deni Avdija’s ability to attack downhill, and he was able to do it relentlessly against a Suns team that tried to play small in the 7-8 Play-In Tournament game. Well, you’re not going to see the Spurs play small. San Antonio has an elite rim protector in Victor Wembanyama, who also happens to be quick enough to cover on the perimeter. You simply can’t play him off the floor, and having his length to contest Avdija’s shots at the rim could really bog down this Portland offense. The Spurs are also eighth in the NBA in opponent three-point percentage (35.2%) this season, so it’s not like the Blazers are going to be able to go nuclear from deep.

It’s just very likely that someone is going to need to step up and really help Avdija when it comes to shot creation, but who is it going to be? The logical answers would be Jrue Holiday and Shaedon Sharpe, but the Spurs have a defensive backcourt that really gets after it. Those guys will probably have a game or two in which they exceed expectations, but actually putting a scare in San Antonio would mean doing so consistently.

Despite all of that, while I do like the Spurs to win this series somewhat comfortably, I think -220 is an easy buy when talking about the Blazers getting on the board in this series. That’s an implied probability of only 68.75%, and I think it should be closer to 75.0%. It’s hard to beat the same team four times in a row, and it’s even harder when that team consistently shows up ready to scrap. Well, in the final 15 games of the regular season, Portland was the best team in the NBA when looking at raw defensive rating (106.4). The Blazers will be ready to scrap, and I expect there to be at least one game in which the Spurs go cold. That could very well come in Portland, where the Blazers are always hard to beat.

Series Pick: Over 4.5 Games (-220)

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