2025-26 NBA Playoffs: No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks series preview, picks, and predictions

Knicks vs. Hawks Eastern Conference Series Preview:

In the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs, we’re going to see the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks battle for a spot in the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The Knicks went 2-1 against the Hawks during the regular season, but Atlanta went out of the way to secure a first-round meeting with New York. Now, it’ll be very interesting to see if that was the right decision. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!

Knicks vs. Hawks Series Odds

(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, April 14 at 2:30 pm ET)

Series Winner: Knicks -290, Hawks +230

Series Spread: Knicks -1.5 Games (-115), Hawks +1.5 Games (-105)

Series Total: Over 5.5 Games (-150), Under 5.5 Games (+120)

Knicks vs. Hawks Series Prediction

The Hawks had a winnable game against the Heat in Game 82, but they opted to rest their starters and take the No. 6 seed. It’s clear Atlanta feels much better about facing New York than facing Cleveland, which isn’t a crazy thing to believe. However, putting that out there, making it known, and executing a plan like that is risky. The Knicks now have all the bulletin board material in the world, which isn’t nothing when considering some of the competitive dudes on the New York roster. I’m also not even sure the Knicks need extra motivation here. This team badly needs to make the NBA Finals this year, so this is already going to be a driven group. And while Atlanta might feel good about this matchup, I’m not sure there’s anything that suggests the team should.

The Knicks went 2-1 in three meetings against the Hawks this season, and the most recent matchup, only eight days ago, was the big one. Playing in Atlanta, with the home team favored by 1.5 and in need of a victory, we saw New York escape with a 108-105 victory. In that game, the Hawks made 16 triples and turned the ball over 15 times, while the Knicks made only 11 threes and coughed the ball up 17 times. Knowing those numbers, you would have thought the Hawks would have found a way to win. Nickeil Alexander-Walker also had 36 points on 12-19 FG and 7-11 3PT in that game, which isn’t something you should expect more of when these teams meet in this best-of-seven series.

The fact that the Knicks picked up a road win in a game in which the Hawks did a lot of things right isn’t a good sign for Atlanta. The best case you can make that the Hawks will find a way to make this a series is focusing on their recent numbers. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta is 20-6 with a net rating of +10.1, ranking 10th in the NBA in raw offensive rating (118.3) and second in raw defensive rating (108.6). Well, New York looked that team dead in the eye and dodged their best shot.

The Hawks were also somewhat disappointing when facing strong competition this year. For as good as the team’s statistical profile ended up looking, they were 23-30 when taking on teams .500 and above. Also, even during a fantastic close to the regular season, the Hawks suffered a 22-point road loss to the Rockets and a seven-point road loss against a Jaylen Brown-less Celtics. Those defeats, along with the one against the Knicks, make me think that this was simply a team that was beating up on lesser competition.

There’s also significant on-court edges for the Knicks, which is ultimately why I view this as a straightforward series. That all starts with Karl-Anthony Towns and the advantage New York has in the paint.

Towns can be a bit of a polarizing player, but he can absolutely dominate when covered by a traditional big. Well, not only will he be stuck by Onyeka Okongwu here, but that’s also a smaller big. With that in mind, Towns should be able to punish Okongwu in the post, while also possessing the ability to space the floor better than any other big in the league. There’s a reason Towns averaged 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds per game in two meetings with this Hawks team during the regular season. This matchup is perfect for him. Towns’ poor defense also doesn’t stand out as much in a series like this. While Atlanta played rather well offensively down the stretch, this team doesn’t have the type of smooth pick-and-roll operator that can take advantage of New York playing Towns and Jalen Brunson together. Also, while Okongwu has improved his jumper, I’m not sure the Knicks would mind a series in which the Hawks big man is jacking them up.

I also see Mitchell Robinson’s presence on the glass being massive when he’s out there for New York. The weird thing about Atlanta is that the team is big across the lineup overall, but the team is very small when looking at the center spot. That’s not what you want with Towns or Robinson. The latter is currently the best offensive rebounder in basketball — though I wouldn’t mind watching some type of one-on-one battle between Robinson and a healthy Steven Adams during 2026-27 All-Star Weekend.

In addition to having the size advantage, the Knicks have the best player on the floor in Brunson. He also happens to be the best late-game closer in this series. I know Hawks fans and bettors will note that Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels will make life tough on Brunson, and perhaps they will. But Brunson has proven that he can get himself going in the face of elite defense, and he’s relatively unbothered by size and physicality. So, he should get his numbers throughout this series, and his presence on the floor makes it hard to imagine Atlanta winning the close ones against New York. If crunch time (five-point game in final five minutes) is triggered in any of these contests, I expect Brunson to come up with the goods and get the Knicks across the finish line.

On the other end of the floor, I trust New York to be good enough defensively against this specific opponent. The Knicks have three high-level defensive wings, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges, to throw on Jalen Johnson. That gives New York a shot at cutting off the head of the snake for Atlanta. The Knicks can also hide either Brunson or Towns on Daniels, who is one of the worst three-point shooters in basketball — and isn’t much better as a slasher.

I just think you have to be a special offensive team in order to make this Knicks team look shaky, and I don’t view the Hawks in that light. In fact, Johnson is really the only player on the team that I think can consistently create offensive for himself in a halfcourt setting. Alexander-Walker has his moments as an off-the-dribble shooter, but I still think he’s most comfortable catching and shooting, or pulling up with a lot of room. I don’t see New York sweating when he puts the ball on the floor and attacks the rim. Also, while CJ McCollum is a smooth three-level scorer, he’s not as quick as he once was. The Knicks should be able to make him work. And McCollum will give back most of his production — and possibly even more — on the other end of the floor.

Atlanta is talented and well-coached enough to win a game or two at home, but I see the Knicks winning in six games, at most. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the extra juice the Hawks gave them leads to this ending in five games or fewer. New York isn’t going to take kindly to Atlanta begging for this matchup. Also, the Knicks will be well represented in Atlanta, much like they were against the 76ers two years ago. Even in that game a week ago, New York had a bunch of butts in the seats.

Series Pick: Knicks -1.5 Games (-110)

NOTE: I also have a 3u parlay on Knicks/Nuggets to win their opening-round series at -136.

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