Game: Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Date: February 24th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Following an impressive neutral site win over Michigan on Saturday night, the Duke Blue Devils return to conference play. This evening, they travel north to South Bend, Indiana, to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Duke enters on a four-game winning streak and brings a 25-2 overall record into this matchup, including a 13-1 mark in ACC play.

Facing Notre Dame on the road makes this a Quad 2 opportunity for Duke, a quadrant in which they are currently 4-0 this season. The Blue Devils are averaging 82.4 points per game (39th in Division I) while allowing just 63.1 points per contest (3rd nationally).

Notre Dame, meanwhile, has struggled throughout the season and has dropped four of its last five games. The Irish come into this contest at 12-15 overall with a 3-11 record in the ACC. This will mark Notre Dame’s 12th Quad 1 opponent of the year, and they currently sit at 2-9 against such competition. The Irish are averaging 74.4 points per game (186th in Division I) while allowing 73.4 points per contest (151st nationally).

On paper, this shapes up as a potentially lopsided matchup, even with Notre Dame holding home-court advantage.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

We’ve already seen significant movement in the spread, as Duke opened as a 14.5-point favorite and has since been bet up to between -17.5 and -18.5. The moneyline, somewhat surprisingly, has seen little change, with Duke holding steady at -2400 while Notre Dame has shifted slightly to +1300 (from +1200). The total has ticked up modestly from 139.5 to 140.5.

KenPom Ratings

There is a substantial gap between these teams in the KenPom ratings, with Duke ranked 2nd nationally at a +37.24 net rating, while Notre Dame sits 87th with a +9.63 net rating.

The Blue Devils own an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 127.0 (7th nationally) to go along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 89.8 (2nd nationally). Notre Dame posts an adjusted offensive efficiency of 115.2 (88th nationally) paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 105.5 (93rd nationally).

Betting Trends

Across the last 10 meetings between these programs dating back to 2018, the Duke Blue Devils have controlled the series, winning all but one matchup (a 2021 loss). Duke also holds a slight edge against the spread, covering in six of the last 10 meetings. Totals, however, have split evenly, cashing five overs and five unders.

This season, Duke sits at 15-12 ATS overall, including a 6-3 record on the road and a 5-3 mark as a road favorite. The Blue Devils are 9-8 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 7-7 ATS in ACC play. Over/unders have leaned heavily toward the under, hitting in 19 of 27 contests. On the road, the under has connected in seven of nine games, including six of eight as a road favorite. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has cashed in 13 of 17 matchups, and in conference action the under has hit in nine of 14.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish enter at 14-13 ATS, posting a 7-7 record at home and a 2-2 mark as a home underdog. The Irish are 8-8 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 6-8 ATS in the ACC. Totals have favored the over overall, hitting in 18 of 27 games. At home, the over has connected in 11 of 14 contests, including all four games when Notre Dame has been a home underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the over has hit in 13 of 16 games, and in ACC play the over has cashed in 11 of 13.

Final Thoughts

While this may not be the most anticipated matchup on the board, it presents a compelling betting opportunity. I expect Duke to continue its dominance in the series, winning comfortably and covering the number. As for the total, I would lean slightly toward the over in this spot.