Indian Wells Predictions: BNP Paribas Open tennis best bets for Saturday, March 7

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open is in full swing at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, and Saturday, March 7 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from Tennis Paradise. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Indian Wells, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 BNP Paribas Open best bets are built to help you profit all the way through the men’s final on Sunday, March 15. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.

Joao Fonseca vs. Karen Khachanov

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I thought Fonseca was on Upset Watch in Round 1, as he hasn’t looked great this season and Raphael Collignon is a dangerous opponent. Well, Fonseca passed the test with a strong opening-round performance. In fact, his Performance Rating of 8.47 is the highest he’s had in a tournament since he won in Basel last year. And, for context, a score of 8.47 would be the fourth-highest score on the ATP Tour in non-Slam matches over the last 52 weeks — behind only Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz.

It was just nice to see Fonseca’s game fully clicking, and I now love his chances against Khachanov. There’s no denying Khachanov can be a tough player to beat in somewhat slow conditions, as he’s a rare bigger player that moves rather well around the baseline. Khachanov was, however, part of the group of players that was stuck in Dubai until a couple of days ago, making this an odd week of preparation. I’m not sure you can rely on him to be fully fit — or even checked in mentally — when he gets out there here.

Fonseca also has way more power than Khachanov, which will give the Brazilian a better shot at ending rallies in these slower conditions. On top of that, he’ll undoubtedly have the crowd in his corner.

Bet: Fonseca ML (-145)

Sebastian Korda vs. Alex de Minaur

Last season, in non-Slams, Korda had a Forehand Quality of 7.6 at TennisViz. That wing has long been a weakness for the American, but he has upped his Forehand Quality to 7.8 in 2026. Korda is also stealing more points, as his steal score is five percentage points higher than it was last year. On top of that, Korda is doing better work as a returner (7.0 Return Quality in 2026 vs. 6.6 Return Quality in 2025), he’s converting a little more frequently when going on offense, and he’s just winning a larger percentage of baseline points. That’s why Korda was able to beat Alex Michelsen, Casper Ruud, Flavio Cobolli, and Tommy Paul on his way to winning a big title in Delray Beach a few weeks ago. And the American picked up where he left off here, dismantling Francisco Comesana in the opening round.

Korda now looks like he’s playing at a top-10 level again, and his overall 2026 Performance Rating of 8.03 backs that up. Well, for as good as de Minaur is, the Australian is always a threat to lose against top-10 talents. That makes this an interesting spot to back Korda at extremely favorable odds.

De Minaur is a pain in the butt to play against, as he tracks down a lot of balls, he’s an elite returner, and he’s a feisty competitor. However, Korda is better as a pure ball-striker, making it more likely he can hit through the conditions in the desert. And if the American brings some of his newly found swagger into this match, there’s really no reason he can’t have some chances to win.

Korda also looks like a sharp play when looking at our VSiN betting splits. De Minaur has taken a heavy majority of the bets in this match, but he’s down from -223 at open to -181 now. That means there’s important bettors on Korda.

Bet: Korda ML (+147)