Here are this week’s EPL best bets:

Manchester United vs. Brentford 

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Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET

We have new leaders of the Premier League in the form of Manchester City but only on goals scored, so the title race could really go down to the wire. At the other end of the table, five points separate Tottenham, West Ham and Nottingham Forest, with one taking the final relegation spot, while only two sides look like they have nothing to play for in mid-table. 

My first of three bets comes in the last game of the slate, Manchester United vs. Brentford on Monday. The Red Devils go into the weekend in third and look good for a Champions League spot, while the Bees sit ninth but just two points adrift of the top six and qualification for a first taste of European soccer next season. 

Michael Carrick’s men are -117 favorites for this clash, and many people will think that is a great price, but beware. It seems every time you bet United at those odds in this kind of match, you get burned. The visitors at +295, however, seem very short to me too, and as a guideline, they were +392 last season and slipped to a fourth straight defeat at Old Trafford.

Brentford have tied their last six league matches,  bizarrely three 0-0 and three 2-2. For my selection, if this is to be another tie, I will be hoping it is another one full of goals. Bruno Fernandes to score or assist is available at -106, and that looks like huge value.

The Portuguese international has 18 assists to his name, just two short of the Premier League record and has also added eight goals to that tally as well. Those stats mean he is currently the favorite to win the Player of the Season award, which speaks volumes when you consider Manchester City and Arsenal have dominated the league. 

In eight games against Brentford in his career, he has one goal and three assists, but has been sensational since Carrick took over and especially on home soil. In six home games, Bruno has two goals and seven assists, with this bet cashing in each one.  

EPL Best Bets: Manchester United vs Brentford – Bruno Fernandes to score or assist at -106. 

Fulham vs. Aston Villa

Saturday, 12:30p.m. ET

Fulham are one of those sides that have at least one foot on the sand, sitting in 12th, and although only four points off the top seven, there are probably too many sides between themselves and the European places. Alarmingly, for the first time this season, they are not scoring goals, having drawn a blank in five of their last six fixtures. 

Villa are fourth but with an eight-point buffer to Brighton in sixth and are in the Europa League semi-final. It’s a competition Unai Emery loves to win and will have laser focus on with the first leg against Nottingham Forest coming next week. 

As a result, I am swerving the main markets and instead betting a player who has a laser focus of his own. Ollie Watkins is a player I have always really admired, and I think the +165 available on him to score is a great price. 

It looks like he won’t be going to the World Cup for England as Harry Kane’s cover, and I struggle to get my head around that. He scored twice last weekend in the 4-3 victory over Sunderland, and although Thomas Tuchel seems to rate Solanke and Calvert-Lewin more than Watkins, the Villa man seems determined to change the mind of the manager of the national team.

The 30-year-old has faced Fulham nine times and scored six goals, hitting the back of the net in four of the last five head-to-heads. He is having a great end of season, and we already know he can do it on the big stage.

He will be keen to keep that scoring run going, and at +165, he represents real value. 

EPL Best Bet: Fulham vs Aston Villa – Ollie Watkins to score at +165.

Manchester City vs. Southampton 

Saturday, 12:15p.m. ET

Manchester City beat Arsenal last week, and after winning at Burnley on Wednesday, now sit at the top of the Premier League, albeit only via goals scored. That midweek fixture was brought forward due to their involvement in the FA Cup this weekend, and my final bet comes from their semi-final against Southampton. 

Pep’s men relegated Burnley to the championship with that 1-0 win and were priced at -830 but are -530 to beat a current second-tier side on neutral territory. That suggests, and I agree, that Saints are a better team than the Clarets. However, I can see nothing other than a City win here. 

Expect rotation, but when you are bringing in players like Marmoush and Foden, it’s hardly your average reserve side. They, of course, will want to get the win here to take them to another final but also stay injury-free.

For Southampton, their focus must be playing the likes of City week in week out and securing an immediate promotion back to the Premier League. They are fourth currently but face second-placed Ipswich on Tuesday, which, for me, is the bigger fixture. 

Tonda Eckert has his team on an incredible unbeaten run of 20 games, including a win over Arsenal in the last round of this competition, but they aren’t up against a team like this version of Manchester City every week. In a very un-Pep-like style, the Premier League leaders are winning games ugly, keeping clean sheets as opposed to blowing opponents away. 

Arsenal scored against them in a 2-1 defeat but were the first team to do so in four games. As mentioned, City are -530 to win this match, but if you bet them to win-to-nil, that price is boosted to +108. 

That represents a massive jump to me, for Manchester City to keep a clean sheet against a Championship side. I predict a professional job from the favorites here and a comfortable 1-0 or 2-0 victory.

EPL Best Bet: Manchester City vs Southampton – Manchester City to win to nil at +108.

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