The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open is underway at the Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain, and the clay-court season only heats up from here. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Madrid, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Mutua Madrd Open best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Saturday, April 25 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina
Anhelina Kalinina vs. Naomi Osaka
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I had a really strong day on Friday, so I was hoping there’d be a lot I’d like on the Saturday card. Unfortunately, there’s only a few plays I like, with some of them being leans I’m throwing together with alternate spreads. That’s exactly what I’m doing here.
I like Zheng to keep things somewhat tight against Rybakina, but I’m not quite there taking the 2024 Gold medalist at +4.5 games. Rybakina has simply been too good, while Zheng hasn’t played her best tennis since returning from injury. However, at an alternate spread of +6.5, count me in. Zheng actually kept things somewhat tight against Rybakina in Doha a couple of months ago, losing 4-6, 6-2, 7-5. However, the fact she was able to win a set that early in her comeback was impressive, and I think she can do it again here. Zheng is a very good server, she has big-time power, and she’s a slightly better mover than Rybakina. That should all make up for a relative lack of form, allowing her to keep this from being lopsided.
In the other match, I actually like Kalinina to win. Including her ITF-level matches, Kalinina is 22-5 since the start of the 2026 season. She has played a lot of tennis, and she has won a lot of matches. Kalinina has also played a ton of clay-court matches lately. In fact, Kalinina has played 28 consecutive matches on clay. She just should have a much better feel for the conditions than Osaka, which should give her a chance of pulling off this upset. But I’ll just grab her to win a set, as Osaka’s ball-striking could win out in the end.
PARLAY: Zheng Alt +6.5 Games & Kalinina +1.5 Sets (+107)
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Denis Shapovalov
While Shapovalov’s game is better suited for altitude clay than standard clay, he didn’t exactly look great in Munich last week. And overall, the southpaw is 8-9 since the start of the 2026 season, and he’s just 40-41 on clay in his career. So, while Shapovalov is a former world No. 10 and has had his moments this year, this isn’t exactly an intimidating draw for someone like Budkov Kjaer.
Budkov Kjaer is one of my favorite young players in the sport, as he’s a 19-year-old with some outrageous weapons. These conditions also happen to be perfect for the Norwegian, and we have already gotten a nice little taste of that here. Budkov Kjaer won his two qualifying matches in dominant straight-set fashion, and he was on his way to winning the opening set against Reilly Opelka before the big American had to retire in their opening-round match.
I just think that Budkov Kjaer’s massive serve will keep him in sets, allowing him to hang around until Shapovalov’s sloppy play gives him the chance to capitalize on his opportunities.
This is also a match in which it seems sharp bettors like the same side I do. Shapovalov opened as a -199 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, and our betting splits show a heavy majority of the tickets and handle on the Canadian. However, Shapovalov’s odds have dropped, which means important bettors like Budkov Kjaer.
Bet: Budkov Kjaer ML (+152)
NOTE: While only three picks are written up here, I usually have more on the Pro Picks page. I try to select the plays I write up based on player popularity. Some of the picks on the Pro Picks page are higher-confidence selections.
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