Daily Racing Form handicappers Gino Buccola and Ashley Mailloux preview the seven-furlong Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Saturday’s Race 10, a $1 million race at 4:50 p.m. Eastern, drew 11 graded stakes winners. Buccola and Mailloux split atop a field, and neither lands on the 9-5 morning-line favorite to win.

Buccola’s top pick: No. 7 Imagination

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No. 7 Imagination, trained by Bob Baffert, won the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, ran second to Bentornato in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and won the Riyadh Dirt Sprint last out. “When he went a little bit longer, he would show early speed, but he wouldn’t have any finish. And now it’s the opposite since he’s cut back,” Buccola said. “If he is in that price range of 5-, 6-1, I think that’s very fair if you’re trying to go against Knightsbridge.”

Mailloux’s top pick: No. 5 Disruptor

No. 5 Disruptor, trained by Todd Pletcher, ran fifth in the 2025 Florida Derby after a bad start, then returned from a long layoff to sit second in the Challenger Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and win his most recent start. “I really don’t have any knocks on him. He has stepped up to each task in those two starts,” Mailloux said.

The favorite: No. 6 Knightsbridge

No. 6 Knightsbridge, trained by Bill Mott, drew clear by more than 11 lengths in the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Mile for his fourth straight win. His 112 Beyer Speed Figure is the highest figure run by any horse in North America this year. Both handicappers respect the form but flag the class jump. “There might be five or six horses in this race better than any horse he’s faced in his last few races,” Buccola said.

The price play: No. 10 Banishing

No. 10 Banishing, trained by David Jacobson, was beaten a neck in last year’s Churchill Downs Stakes and has since won the Charles Town Classic and the Godolphin Mile. Buccola called him “as solid as they come” but echoed Mailloux’s worry about a heavy campaign that includes a Pegasus start and a Saudi trip. “He cannot be below double-digit odds in here,” Buccola said.

The handicappers’ verdict

Gino Buccola’s picks 

No. 7 Imagination 

No. 10 Banishing

No. 6 Knightsbridge

Ashley Mailloux’s picks 

No. 5 Disruptor 

No. 6 Knightsbridge 

No. 2 Cornucopian

For more from Gino and Ashley, check out this video preview:

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