The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff games on 5/6 and 5/7. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 20-9 SU and 21-8 ATS (72.4%) record over the last five postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 28-1 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-10.5 vs MIN)

PHILADELPHIA is 32-15 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 215.5)

Under the total is 14-3 in the last 17 of the Cavs-Pistons divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 215.5)

Trends by Line/Total Range

Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 19-12 SU but just 9-22 ATS (29%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 74-52-1 ATS (58.7%) in that span.
Trend Matches: PLAY – DETROIT (-3.5 vs CLE)
FADE – NEW YORK (-10.5 vs PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-10.5 vs MIN), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

Last Game Trends

Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 15-29 SU and 18-26 ATS (40.9%) in the follow-up contests in their last 39 playoff tries. However, these teams are 11-6 ATS in the last two years’ upset-ridden second rounds.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+10.5 at NYK), CLEVELAND (+3.5 at DET), LA LAKERS (+15.5 at OKC

Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 33-17 ATS (66%) since 2021, including 10-4 ATS a year ago.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-10.5 vs MIN)

Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6-points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 20-9 SU and 21-8 ATS (72.4%) record over the last five postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 28-1 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-10.5 vs MIN)

There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10-points or fewer, the follow-up second round same-series game is 39-24-1 Under (61.9%) the total in the last 64.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-SAS (o/u at 216.5), CLE-DET (o/u at 215.5)

Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 7-13 SU and 5-15 ATS (25%) in the follow-up contest. Thirteen of the last 14 of those games have also gone Under the total (92.9%).
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs PHI)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 215.5)

Trends by Game Number

Game 2 home teams were just 2-2 SU and ATS in the 2025 second round to drop their five-year record to 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%).
Trend Matches: PLAY ALL FOUR HOME TEAMS

Smaller home favorites get it done in game 2s – Home favorites of 7 points or less have gone 19-5 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in their last 24 chances.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 vs CLE)

Trends by Seed Number

#1 seeds are on a 17-8 SU and 15-10 ATS (60%) at home in the last 5+ seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
Trend Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-3.5 vs CLE), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

#1 seeds have failed to build on second round momentum in the last five postseasons, going 8-13 SU and 5-16 ATS (23.8%) in the last 21 tries when coming off a same series win.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-3.5 vs CLE), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

#3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 40-24-1 (62.5%) in the last 65.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 215.5)

Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 18-42 SU and 25-34-1 ATS (42.4%) as such since 2015. However, they are 7-7 SU and 9-5 ATS since the start of last year in this role.
Trend Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+3.5 at DET), LA LAKERS (+15.5 at OKC)

Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 14-25 SU and 17-22 ATS (43.6%) coming back after a same-series defeat since 2014.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+3.5 at DET), LA LAKERS (+15.5 at OKC)

First round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded 5th or lower have gone 5-34 SU and 15-24 ATS (38.5%) when playing as dogs of 6 points or more. Included in that is a 0-7 SU and ATS record at home.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+10.5 at NYK), MINNESOTA (+10.5 at SAS)

Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 14-23 SU and ATS (37.8%) when coming off a same-series victory since 2013.
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+10.5 at SAS)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 87-46 SU and 76-53-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs PHI), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 66-25 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-SAS (o/u at 216.5), LAL-OKC (o/u at 209.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 32-15 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since Nov 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 215.5)

* CLEVELAND is just 23-26 SU and 15-34 ATS (30.6%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+3.5 at DET)

* DETROIT is 20-10 Under the total (66.7%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 215.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 49-9 SU and 38-19-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:

Monday, May 4, 2026

(561) PHILADELPHIA at (562) NEW YORK
* Road teams are on a 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS run in the PHI-NYK divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+10.5 at NYK)

(563) MINNESOTA at (564) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total has converted in four of the last six meetings between MIN and SAS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

(567) CLEVELAND at (568) DETROIT
* Under the total is 14-3 in the last 17 of the Cavs-Pistons divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 215.5)

(569) LA LAKERS at (570) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge against LAL since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 192-71 SU and 152-110-1 ATS (58%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SAN ANTONIO vs MIN (-10.5 CURRENTLY) and DETROIT vs CLE (-3.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 145-127 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 364-297 (55.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-SAS (spread -10.5, total 216.5), LAL-OKC (spread -15.5, total 209.5)
UNDER – PHI-NYK (spread -10.5, total 215.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 27-19 Over (58.7%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-DET (o/u at 215.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 111-72 SU and 98-83-2 ATS (54.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs PHI)

Playoff large wins also lead to Unders
In the playoffs, NBA teams off a 30-point win have had their next game totals go Under at a 30-16-1 (65.2%) rate in last five seasons (games also include if previous game was in regular season).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 215.5)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 356-269 SU but 292-318-15 ATS (47.9%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 53-78-1 ATS (40.5%).
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs PHI)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 416-359 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 215.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 364-368 SU and 334-390-8 ATS (46.1%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-10.5 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 163-29 SU but 84-105-3 ATS (44.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, DETROIT ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-SAS, LAL-OKC

NBA Strength Ratings

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The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +10.5 (+1.1)
2. MINNESOTA +10.5 (+0.7)
3. LA LAKERS +15.5 (+0.2)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DETROIT -3.5 (+1.2)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +3.5 (+0.6)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -10.5 (+3.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.7)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-SAS OVER 216.5 (+1.6)
2. CLE-DET OVER 215.5 (+0.5)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-NYK UNDER 215.5 (-1.1)
2. LAL-OKC UNDER 209.5 (-0.4)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHILADELPHIA +10.5 (+1.2)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -3.5 (+1.3)
2. SAN ANTONIO -10.5 (+0.5)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.2)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-SAS OVER 216.5 (+2.0)
2. LAL-OKC OVER 209.5 (+1.9)
3. CLE-DET OVER 215.5 (+1.3)
TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Match: PHI-NYK UNDER 215.5 (-1.8)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Wednesday, May 6 and Thursday, May 7 appeared first on VSiN.