The 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia (also known at the Italian Open) is in full swing at the Foro Italico in Rome. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Thursday, May 7 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Dalibor Svrcina vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Matteo Berrettini vs. Alexei Popyrin
Embed from Getty Images
Kecmanovic got a tough draw in having to face Svrcina, who got through qualifying with a pair of straight-set wins. The 23-year-old defeated Benjamin Bonzi and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in those matches, which does a good job of showing you how different this tournament is than the one in Madrid.
Svrcina is really playing some strong clay-court tennis right now, going 8-2 on the dirt since Indian Wells. The Czech player has a good enough baseline game to hang with Kecmanovic, even if it might not be good enough to actually beat him. That’s why I’m going with Svrcina to win a set here. Kecmanovic hasn’t played on these courts yet, and it’ll be different for him to compete here than it was at altitude. Perhaps that’ll be an edge for Svrcina, who has a very good backhand and sharp footwork. Svrcina is also getting Kecmanovic at the right time, as the Serbian is on a five-match losing streak.
To get a better price on the set spread, I’m pairing Svrcina with Berrettini moneyline. The Italian is a tremendous clay-court player, as he has a big, heavy forehand, a massive first serve, and an excellent second serve. Berrettini also moves a little better on the clay. Well, playing at home, he should be able to find a way to beat Popyrin. I know Popyrin can be a tough opponent — especially on this surface — but I do think Berrettini is the more talented player, so he should get through playing at home.
PARLAY: Svrcina +1.5 Sets & Berrettini ML (+100)
Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Ethan Quinn
It might be a little odd to see Llamas Ruiz as a betting favorite over Quinn, who is far more talented and happens to be playing some good tennis over the last couple of months. However, the conditions in Rome are absolutely perfect for clay-court specialists, and that means they’re perfect for Llamas Ruiz. The Spaniard has won a lot of clay-court matches recently, as he’s 15-4 on the dirt dating back to the middle of March. A lot of those matches were at the Challenger level, but clay-court victories are clay-court victories.
Quinn is a big server and a brilliant-ball striker, but his weapons will be toned down a bit in these slower conditions. That’ll help Llamas Ruiz quite a bit, as he’s the better clay-court mover, has more ways he can beat opponents, and just has more comfortability on these courts.
Bet: Llamas Ruiz ML (-137 – 1.5 units)
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
The post Tennis Best Bets Today: Internazionali BNL d’Italia picks for Thursday, May 7 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment