WNBA Picks

The home team curse has continued, relatively, in the WNBA. On Sunday, Seattle was the only home team to cover (won outright as underdogs), while the New York Liberty laid an egg in Sabrina Ionescu’s return, and Atlanta had to mount a comeback just to win but failed to cover against the Mercury. Home teams are now just 19-9 ATS since May 14th. On Memorial Day, we’ve got New York playing a back-to-back against Portland, who’s on their third road game in six days, while Connecticut will visit Golden State to take on the Valkyries. Here are the T Shoe Index projections for Monday.

New York Liberty (-12.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 177

Integrating Satou Sabally has proven more difficult than expected so far for the Liberty, who are just 3-3 now and just got Sabrina Ionescu back into the lineup. Portland is also 3-3, so to the layman, this double-digit spread may seem outrageous; however, the talent disparity here justifies the line. In fact, TSI projects New York as 14-point favorites, and although they’re on a back-to-back, I think this is a good spot to back them because they basically no-showed against Dallas on Sunday, so this should be a “get right” game for them against an overmatched opponent, especially one that pulled an upset against the Liberty earlier this month. I don’t love backing a home team given the trends, but I’ve adjusted my projections accordingly, and it still favors New York here. TSI makes the total 174.5, but I’m locked in on the side here.

Bet: Liberty -12.5 (Play to -13.5)

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Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 161

The Valkyries come into this game at 3-2 on the season, 11th on offense and 2nd in defense in the TSI ratings. Connecticut has one just once but has shown some life, so they’re not the doormat from a betting standpoint that they were most of last year. Connecticut is 15th on offense and 13th on defense. Home favorites of 7.5+ are just 1-7 ATS since 5/14, and TSI has been especially good on big underdogs this season. In this game, TSI projects Valkyries -11.5 with a total of 163.5. I’m going to back the road dogs here from both a trends and TSI standpoint.

Bet: Sun +12.5 (Play to +12)

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