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Aristides Stakes, Churchill Downs, Race #8

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Let’s kick it off with a fun little sprint of the Churchill dirt. Our old friend #6 Madakat Road is back against graded stakes company here after a nice tune-up first time off the layoff. He danced all the dances at three and was best around one turn. He should be better 2nd off the layoff here, the race sets up well for him, and the price is right. 

#3 Roll On Big Joe will try to get some respect here. He has always run well at Churchill Downs, where he is three for four. There is a lot of speed signed on today, so Joe will not be able to get the lead here, but he has won a few times from off the pace; he will need that trip again today. 

#2 Cornucopian would have been higher on my list had he drawn a better post. He is going to have to figure out how to sit off and work out an inside trip to win, and that is a lot to ask against a good bunch. 

#1 Mad House beat Roll on Big Joe last time out with a gate-to-wire trip, but Joe was off the layoff. Mad House will have to repeat that effort at a minimum to be able to get his picture taken again. 

Top 4: 6-3-2-1
The Bets: $50 Win #6

Regret Stakes, Churchill Downs, Race #9

#8 Storm’s Wake was within a length of the win last time in a better-than-it-looked 5th place finish. Saez takes over for Rosario in the saddle, an upgrade, and she’s got the most class in the field. The only question is going to be the pace, which could be lacking here. If that’s the case, 

#9 Tam Tam has a good chance to wire this field. She was a very good second last time out at 20-1 after back-to-back wins at Gulfstream. The problem is today she is the 5-2 favorite. I am just not willing to take the drastic odds adjustment. #1 Indigo Woods is coming out of the same race as the aforementioned two, but with a worse trip from an outside post. Today he draws the rail and she get a much cleaner, closer to the pace run. 

#6 Dandona is interesting at a 6-1 price. Irad Ortiz jumps aboard for Saffie Joseph Jr, who have teamed up at a 23% rate. I’m not sure he can win, but it’s a worthwhile horse underneath.

Top 4: 8-1-9-6
The Bets: $50 Win #8

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