WNBA Picks

Another solid 3-1 day for us in the WNBA extended our current run to 11-4 over our last 15 and 9-2 over our last 11. TSI is getting dialed in as the season progresses, and it’s really encouraging to see it start to hit a stride here in June. Saturday has four games on deck, so let’s get to those projections for the Lynx/Storm, Aces/Valkyries, Dream/Mystics, and Liberty/Fever.

Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 160.5

Like us, Minnesota is on an absolute heater right now. They’ve won six straight games despite not having their best player, Napheesa Collier, and are averaging 90 points per game at home and on the road. They’re taking on the young and struggling Seattle Storm, who have lost four straight and won just three games all season so far. TSI projects Minnesota -11.5 with a total of 166.5. I like the Over here, as Minnesota’s home games have averaged about 3 points per game higher than their road games, and Seattle gives up about 8 more points per game on the road than at home.

Bet: Over 160.5 (Play to 162.5)

Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 170

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Vegas has won back-to-back games after losing their previous two, and Chennedy Carter – the heavy favorite for 6th player of the year – is listed as day-to-day after suffering an injury last week. Golden State is 6-4 on the season but just 1-2 in their last 3 games and got badly outplayed by this Vegas team last time they lined up. TSI projects Golden State as a road favorite here by 1.5 points with a total of 172.5. In just two home games, Las Vegas has the worst home rating in the league right now, getting blown out by Phoenix by 30 and losing to the Sparks in a game they gave up 100 points. Golden State has virtually been the same at home and on the road. 

Bet: Valkyries +3.5 (Play to +2)

Atlanta Dream (-10.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 160.5

Atlanta is 6-3 on the season and funnily enough, has followed each loss with back-to-back wins, and they lost their last game to Indiana by 12 on the road. Washington is sitting at 4-4 on the season, but unsurprisingly for a young team, their home/road splits heavily favor them playing at home, as they score 10 points per game fewer on the road. TSI projects Dream -11 with a total of 160.5, as Atlanta has been 4.5 points better at home while Washington has been 4 points worse on the road. I’d play this at 9.5 or better, so for now it’ll just be a lean.

Lean: Dream -10.5 (Play at -9.5 or better)

New York Liberty (-3.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 175.5

This is undoubtedly the marquee game of the day, with star power galore and a potential preview of a playoff series down the road. Both teams have been disappointing so far relative to their expectations, but New York has won 3 in a row and has dialed up the defense, allowing just 75 points per game in that stretch. Indiana just picked up a great win at home against Atlanta but has really struggled on the road so far this year. TSI projects Liberty -3.5 with a total fo 167, as New York has been about a point worse at home than on the road but Indiana has been 5.5 points worse on the road than at home. Also of note, Liberty games have scored about 9.5 points per game fewer at home than on the road, while Indiana games have scored about 1 point more on the road. At this number, I lean New York but I will take the Under, since New York is averaging just 83 and allowing just 79 at home.

Lean: Liberty -3.5

Bet: Under 175.5 (Play to 173.5)

For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.

The post WNBA Picks Today: Odds, Game Previews, and Projections for Saturday, June 6 appeared first on VSiN.