WNBA Picks

Another sweep on Tuesday night brings our current run in June to 15-4! The Chicago Sky almost blew the cover late against the Dream after leading or keeping it close the entire game before going down 10 points with a minute left, but a late Skylar Diggins three-pointer saved the cover for us, and the Minnesota Lynx dominated the Wings to easily cash a -4.5 ticket. Wednesday has just two games on the slate, but I’ve still got a couple of plays dialed up, so let’s get to the projections.

Toronto Tempo (-8) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 169

Toronto has won three of its previous four games, winning by eight points per game and scoring 93 points per game in that stretch. Connecticut has lost three straight and has won just two overall this season, including just one on the road. The crazy thing for Toronto is that, while they average 94 points per game on the road, that number shrinks to just 82 at home; defensively, they’ve allowed just 76 points per game at home, compared to 97 on the road. Connecticut, while bad any way you slice the data, is even worse on the road. Their scoring drops nine points per game on the road although they’ve given up 5.5 fewer points per game on the road. TSI projects Toronto -8 with a total of 167. Although the official projection is just -8, there are several other formulas (home/road splits, last three games, etc.) I run that all say Toronto should win by double figures, so I’m going to bet both the Tempo and the Under.

Bet: Tempo -8 or better
Bet: Under 169 (Play to 168)

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Seattle Storm (+6.5) vs Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 169

Seattle has now lost six straight games by an average of 15 points per game. Their offense is only averaging 69.8 points per game over that stretch, which is well below league average of 84.6. LA won and covered its last game against Portland after getting Kelsey Plum back into the lineup, having lost three straight prior to that. Like Connecticut, Seattle is bad no matter how you look at the numbers, but they’re at least a little better at home, where they’ve scored two more points per game and allowed eight points per game fewer than on the road. TSI projects LA -4.5 with a total of 170. There are some conflicting numbers on this game, so I’m going to pass, but my guess is LA has too much firepower for Seattle to contend with.

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