MLB Best Bets Today June 10

Most of the MLB action is late on Wednesday, as we have a few early getaway day games, but mostly business as usual on a weeknight. It is a pretty lackluster day of pitching arms out there, so there is some offensive upside, though there are some pitchers whose ERAs are much higher than their xERAs or FIPs, so it might be a day of positive regression for those guys. It’s all about the matchups as always and there are some good ones available.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 10:

Mariners vs. Orioles Prediction

Picks: Mariners -125, Mariners 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)

George Kirby and Brandon Young are the listed starters here in this battle of right-handers, as the more veteran of the two looks to get back on track. Kirby has had a really rough go of it lately, as he has allowed 20 runs on 30 hits in his last 21 innings of work. He’s got a 7.29 ERA with a 5.13 xERA, 3.82 FIP, and 3.47 xFIP in that span.

His .380 BABIP and 47% LOB% are significant outliers that should regress to the mean rather quickly. Nothing seems terribly off in terms of Kirby’s spin rates, velocity, SwStr%, Chase Rate, or any of the other metrics that could suggest a major downturn in stuff or an underlying injury. His 44.6% Hard Hit% is a little on the high side, but he’s a guy who doesn’t walk anybody and being a strike-thrower will result in some hard contact. He’s only allowed six Barrels and four of them came in one start.

So, better days should be ahead for Kirby, while I’m not sure that Young could be running any better. He has a 3.47 ERA over his nine starts and 49.1 innings of work, but a 4.50 xERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.78 xFIP, and a 4.70 SIERA. xFIP and SIERA are often viewed as pretty strong indicators of future performance and we can see the ROS (rest of season) projection systems all showing Young with a 4.54 to 4.93 ERA the rest of the way based on his numbers.

Young only has a 17.3% K% and tilts more towards the fly ball side of the spectrum, two things I consider very problematic against Seattle’s lineup and as it starts to warm up in Baltimore. Furthermore, I highly doubt that lefties will continue to run just a .217 BABIP against him. Given his 13.6% K% against LHB, a reckoning should be coming.

With that, it will be the Mariners on the full-game price with a good opportunity to have a lead and also a nod to their offense.

Braves vs. White Sox Prediction

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Pick: Braves 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-110)

Chris Sale is back where it all began, as the 2010 first-round pick of the White Sox makes his 325th career MLB start and 406th career appearance. Sale is still dealing at age 37 with a 2.23 ERA, 3.33 xERA, and a 2.88 FIP over 72.2 innings of work and 12 starts. The peripherals and ratios all look strong as usual, including a 29.3% K%, 6.5% BB%, and 9.5% HR/FB%.

Davis Martin has been quite a revelation for the White Sox this season, as the 29-year-old sports a 2.61 ERA with a 3.65 xERA and a 2.45 FIP in his 72.1 innings across 12 starts. But, there are some concerning signs in the profile that I think the Braves have the opportunity to exploit, even without Ronald Acuna Jr. after hurting his hamstring last night.

Martin’s pitch usage has been a little bit interesting of late, as he’s almost completely abandoned the cutter and has been throwing fewer sliders and changeups in exchange for more four-seamers and sinkers. I’m not a big fan of that development and don’t find it particularly shocking that he gave up six runs on 10 hits last start and four runs on six hits in 5.2 innings three starts ago.

Martin’s stuff profile doesn’t really wow you, but it should be noted that after four straight starts with a Location+ of 102 or higher and six of eight starts to begin the season at 101+ or higher, his Location+ in his last four starts have been 98, 91, 84, 80. His last two starts have featured the lowest Pitching+ numbers of the season at 77 and 73, both against the Twins.

There is a real chance that Martin is dealing with some sort of injury or working through some sort of mechanical hiccup. It could just be some in-season variance, but for a guy whose Stuff+ and Pitching+ numbers already don’t support his 2.61 ERA or 2.45 FIP, consider me very concerned.

Over 12 starts, Sale has allowed one or fewer runs in eight of them and allowed two earned runs in two others. I don’t think we’ll have to ask the Braves offense to do too much here.

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