WNBA Picks

No article yesterday since there was just one game between the Indiana Fever and the Toronto Tempo. It’s a shame because TSI was all over both the spread and the total, projecting the Fever to win by double digits in a high-scoring game, which is exactly what happened. That’s ok because we’ve got a mega slate today in the WNBA, a rare six-gamer. Plenty to get through on this slate, so let’s get to the projections.

Connecticut Sun (+2.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 163

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Connecticut has lost five straight games by an average score of 89-81, and has only won two on the season. Washington is just under .500 on the year, and 2-3 in their last five by an average score of 86-79 in that span. At home, Connecticut has been about five points better than they have on the road, though “better” is certainly relative here. Washington has been abysmal on the road, with a road raw power rating about 11 points below their home rating. They get outscored by about 10 points per game on the road. TSI projects Washington -3 with a total of 163.5, so there’s no play to be had at the moment, but I would lean Connecticut, as this line has dropped from 4.5 to 2.5 and Connecticut’s home/road splits indicate they’ll have a good chance to win the game. 

Chicago Sky (+9.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 169.5

Chicago has lost eight of its last nine games, and is just 1-6 in games against what I’d consider “playoff locks.” Funnily enough, the one win was against Minnesota, arguably the best team in the league. In this nine-game stretch, the Sky are getting outscored 89-80 on average. They’re hosting a New York team who’s finding their own lately, winning seven straight by an average of 88-76. Chicago has been awful at home, playing about eight points worse per game than on the road. Unfortunately for them, New York has been 2.5 points better on the road this season. TSI projects New York -6 with a total of 172. I couldn’t back Chicago here because the home/road splits would favor NY by about 14.5 points, but I do like the over, as Liberty road games have been about nine points higher scoring than their home games. Plus, New York’s road games against non-playoff-caliber teams have averaged 178 points per game. 

Bet: Over 169.5 (Play to 170.5)

Phoenix Mercury (+7) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 172.5

Phoenix has lost three straight and nine of its last 11 games by an average of 87-80. Vegas is coming off an absolutely embarrassing performance against the Dallas Wings, in which they lost by 30 points, so I’d imagine Becky Hammon’s team will be fired up and out for blood tonight. Phoenix is another one of these weird teams that has played way worse at home, especially defensively, allowing 96 points per game at home, compared to just 79 on the road. Vegas had won six straight prior to that Wings’ beatdown, and they’ve been six points better on the road than at home. TSI projects Aces -3 with a total of 176.5. This is a terrible spot for Phoenix, having to play this Aces team coming off a huge loss, so I’m not interested in the side, but I do like the Over. Aces’ road games have been about 2.5 points higher scoring than their home games, while Phoenix’s home games have been about five points higher scoring than their road games, so this is a recipe for the Over to cash easily.

Bet: Over 172.5 (Play to 174.5)

Golden State Valkyries (-3) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 165.5

Golden State has won three in a row by an average score of 80-70, which is an interesting change of direction from their earlier games that averaged 85 points offensively and 80 points allowed defensively. Something to keep an eye on, especially with their O/Us. Dallas is coming off that huge win against the Aces, so this is a bit of a letdown spot for them, though they’re 9-1 in their last 10 games that Paige Bueckers is in the lineup, winning by an average of 90-78. TSI projects Valkyries -3.5 with a total of 166.5, so this game is a no-play for me, but I’d lean Golden State to pull Dallas into a lower-scoring game and grind out a win and cover.

LA Sparks (-8.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 176.5

LA just cannot catch a break (again) with injuries. Cameron Brink is now out with an injury, and Kelsey Plum is (again) questionable with an injury in this game, ballooning this line from Lynx -3.5 to Lynx -8.5. Without one or both of those stars, their stats and trends don’t really matter much, as the data is so limited on their lineups without them. Minnesota, on the other hand, is a juggernaut, and they don’t even have Napheesa Collier back yet. They’re 9-1 in their last 10, winning by an average of 95-77, scoring 100+ in four of those games. TSI projects Minnesota -1.5 with a total of 175.5, but again, that’s at full strength. I’d say a line of about 7.5 is fair if Plum and Brink both miss, so with the uncertainty, I’m just going to pass on this game. 

Portland Fire (-3) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 162

Portland is just 1-5 in their last six games, losing by an average of 93-77 in that span. Seattle, though, has lost eight straight by an average of 84-72, so we’ve got a couple of the worst teams in the W battling it out here tonight. TSI projects Portland -4.5 with a total of 163, and the home/road splits support a bet on the Fire. Portland has been three points better at home from a power rating perspective, averaging three points more per game and allowing two fewer per game. Seattle is bad in general, but they’re dreadful on the road; their road rating is seven points lower than their home rating, as they score two points fewer per game and allow 10 points more per game on the road. I’m all in on the Fire in this one.

Bet: Fire -3 (Play to -4)

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