Türkiye vs. Paraguay Prediction: 2026 FIFA World Cup Preview and Pick

Türkiye vs. Paraguay | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D | Friday, June 19 | 11PM EST | Levi’s Stadium | Santa Clara

Türkiye (-105) | Draw (+240) | Paraguay (+320) Over 2.5 Goals (+110) | Under 2.5 Goals (-135) Türkiye -0.5 (+100) | Paraguay +0.5 (-125)

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Türkiye and Paraguay both look to bounce back and avoid early elimination under the Friday night lights at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara after losing their Matchday 1 openers.

Türkiye kicked off their World Cup campaign with a surprising and frustrating 2-0 defeat to Australia in Vancouver. Australia struck on the counter through Nestory Irankunda in the 27th minute and Connor Metcalfe sealed it 15 minutes from time, but the night belonged to Patrick Beach. Eyebrows were raised when the 22-year-old goalkeeper was named ahead of the experienced Mathew Ryan, yet his eight saves to deny Arda Güler and company justified the call and left Vincenzo Montella’s side pointless, needing to beat Paraguay to keep their dreams of progressing to the knockout stage alive.

Paraguay’s return to the World Cup after a 16-year absence ended in a 4-1 hammering by hosts USA at SoFi Stadium. They never recovered from an early Damián Bobadilla own goal, and a Folarin Balogun brace before half-time put the game out of reach. Substitute Mauricio offered a brief lifeline when he latched onto a Julio Enciso pass to pull one back on 73 minutes, but Gio Reyna’s stoppage-time trivela rounded off a night to forget for Gustavo Alfaro’s side.

With both sides staring down the barrel of an early exit, Friday’s loser is all but eliminated and the winner climbs right back into the last-32 picture.

TÜRKIYE TEAM NEWS

One change I’m confident we’ll see is Kenan Yıldız in the starting lineup. The Juventus forward wasn’t risked from the start against Australia due to a calf injury and came off the bench at half-time, but Türkiye will need him from kick-off to unlock a Paraguay side who will look to frustrate from the start. I would start him on the left with Yılmaz moving to the right and Güler pulling the strings in the center.

Don’t be surprised if we see 5’8″ Kerem Aktürkoğlu drop to the bench. The Fenerbahçe forward had a torrid time against Australia’s back three who ranged from 6’3″ to 6’6″. With Paraguay’s center-backs standing at 6’1″ and 6’2″, we could see the 6’3″ Deniz Gül get the nod to lead the line.

Türkiye Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1

Manager: Vincenzo Montella

PARAGUAY TEAM NEWS

Paraguay travel to Santa Clara with no known fitness issues, giving Alfaro the freedom to select his favored lineup and 4-4-2 formation. If we do see a change, it’ll likely involve Bobadilla. The São Paulo midfielder put through his own net after just 7 minutes against USA and was hooked at half-time.

Pre-tournament Julio Enciso was stretchered off in tears in the 25th minute of their friendly against Nicaragua on June 5. The RC Strasbourg attacker took two heavy blows to his side and lower back but recovered fully and played the full 90 against USA, laying on the assist for their consolation goal. He will start again on Friday.

Paraguay Predicted Lineup 4-4-2

Manager: Gustavo Alfaro

MATCH BREAKDOWN

Çalhanoğlu came out bullish after the final whistle, pushing back when a reporter suggested Australia had dominated: “I don’t think they did the same like you. We dominated today, Australia was just behind, defending good.” Looking at the stats, the captain’s not wrong. Patrick Beach made eight saves and walked away with the player of the match award. Australia’s two goals came from a counter-attack and a midfield turnover, not sustained pressure, with the second being a long-range effort valued at 0.03 xG. Türkiye were the better side, dominating possession with a 72% share and creating two big chances. They just came up against a goalkeeper having a dream World Cup debut.

Paraguay’s 4-1 defeat tells the opposite story. On VSiN PrimeTime Tuesday night, Matt Youmans asked me whether the result was down to the USA being good or Paraguay being bad and I answered both. The own goal settled the USA’s nerves and got the crowd on their side, while Paraguay were never able to recover from that early setback and prevent the game being over by half-time. In that first half they surrendered 72% possession and gave up four big chances. They weren’t just beaten, they were overrun and showed no ability to regroup once the USA found their rhythm.

THE BET

What makes Friday interesting is that Paraguay set up in a very similar way to the Australia side that just beat Türkiye, looking to frustrate and hit on the counter, a system they used effectively throughout CONMEBOL qualifying. On paper, that could sway bettors to back the underdog here, but I’m not ready to give up on this Türkiye squad after one result. I was high on them coming into this tournament and I’m high on them Friday night.

They have a genuinely talented group and Montella will have used the days between games to reset and fine-tune their attacking creativity. The biggest boost is Yıldız returning to the starting lineup. The difference he made off the bench against Australia is stark: in the first half without him, Türkiye managed just 0.44 xG, 10 shots and no big chances. After he came on at the break, they produced 0.92 xG, 20 shots and two big chances. His presence more than doubled their attacking output. Give him a full 90 from kick-off and Türkiye look a different proposition in the final third. Paraguay’s goalkeeper Orlando Gill gave no indication against the USA that he can perform at Patrick Beach’s level.

Back Türkiye to beat Paraguay and get their World Cup campaign back on track.

Betting Tip: Türkiye -0.5 on the Spread and Türkiye on the Moneyline cash on the exact same outcome, a Türkiye win, so with the Spread paying +100 against -105 on the Moneyline, take the half-goal line for the better price

Pick: Türkiye -0.5 +100

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Türkiye vs. Paraguay Prediction: 2026 FIFA World Cup Preview and Pick