Game: Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots 

Date: November 2nd at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

Following one of their least impressive performances of the season in last week’s home loss to Miami, the Falcons now face a tough road challenge against one of the NFL’s hottest teams — the New England Patriots. Atlanta has disappointed over the past two weeks and now sits below .500 at 3-4. Offensively, their struggles continue as they rank 28th in points per game (17.1) despite being 14th in total yards (342.7). Defensively, the Falcons remain one of the league’s stronger units, ranking 13th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed (275.6).

As for the Patriots, they’ve completely turned things around after a 1-2 start, winning five straight to improve to 6-2 and emerging as one of the AFC’s top contenders. Their offense has found its rhythm, ranking 8th in points per game (26.6) and 10th in total yards (353.1). Meanwhile, the defense has been just as impressive, sitting 4th in points allowed (18.3) and 9th in yards allowed (300.4). All signs point toward Michael Penix Jr. being available this Sunday, which could provide the spark Atlanta desperately needs to get back on track.

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Weather

The weather in Foxborough this Saturday looks ideal for football, with temperatures expected to stay in the mid-50s and no chance of precipitation. Winds shouldn’t have much of an impact either, averaging around 7 mph with gusts reaching up to 18 mph.

Betting Overview

This line has shifted slightly further in favor of the Patriots, moving from -3 to -5.5, though it still remains relatively tight. On the moneyline, the best value currently available is the Falcons at +210, while the Patriots sit around -240.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: While the coaching staff in New England is still relatively new, they’ve kept the team competitive every week and have managed a few dominant wins along the way. Mike Vrabel has done a great job leading this defense, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has Drake Maye playing some of his best football. On the other side, Raheem Morris and his staff in Atlanta haven’t been bad, but their inconsistency has been a real concern.

DLs vs. OLs: This matchup is extremely tight on paper. Atlanta holds a slight edge on the offensive line, while New England’s defensive line has been a bit stronger. Given the home-field advantage at Foxborough, the slight nod here goes to the Patriots up front.

QBs: No matter who starts for the Falcons this week, Drake Maye has been the more effective and consistent quarterback this season compared to both Penix and Cousins.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This is where Atlanta has the upper hand. Bijan Robinson remains a constant threat in the backfield, and Kyle Pitts gives them an edge at tight end. Combined with one of the better linebacker groups in the NFL, this area leans clearly toward the Falcons.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The matchup on the perimeter also favors Atlanta, though the Falcons are dealing with some injuries in these units, so it’s worth monitoring player availability leading up to kickoff.

Betting Trends

Atlanta enters this matchup 3-4 against the spread (ATS) on the season, including a 1-2 record on the road. However, they did manage to cover in their lone game as a road underdog. Outside of conference play, the Falcons are 1-1 ATS. The under has been a strong trend in their games so far, cashing in 5 of 7 contests. It’s also hit in all 3 of their road games and in one of two non-conference matchups, with the other ending in a push.

New England, meanwhile, has been one of the better teams ATS this year at 6-2 overall. At home, the Patriots are 2-2, including 2-1 as a home favorite. They’ve also performed well out of conference, going 2-0 ATS. When it comes to totals, their games have been evenly split with 4 overs and 4 unders. At home, totals have pushed twice, while as a home favorite the over has hit twice and the under once. In non-conference play, they’ve split again—one over and one under.

Final Thoughts

I’d like to think this game will be competitive, but the Falcons haven’t shown much lately to suggest they can keep pace with this Patriots team—especially on the road. I expect New England to win, and I’d lean toward them covering the spread, though I’d personally stick with their moneyline if you can find decent value. As for the total, I’d lean slightly toward the over, but it’s one I’d stay away from betting.