Game: Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers

Date: October 26th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: Fox

For the first time since the 2021 season, the Panthers enter a game with a record above .500. The Buffalo Bills come to Charlotte this week, fresh off a bye and looking to disrupt the momentum Carolina has built over the past three weeks. Buffalo has dropped its last two games, bringing its record to 4-2, so the Bills should be highly motivated to get back on track.

The Bills enter this matchup boasting the 3rd-ranked offense in yards per game (378.3) and the 4th-ranked scoring offense (27.8 PPG). Defensively, they’ve been solid, ranking 15th in yards allowed (323.5) and 17th in points allowed (22.8).

Carolina’s offense hasn’t exactly taken off, sitting 19th in yards per game (326.7) and 23rd in scoring (20.7 PPG). However, the defense has been a bright spot, ranking 7th in yards allowed (295.7) and 13th in points allowed (21.7).

The Panthers have been strong at home this season, but they’ll likely be without Bryce Young this week. It will be interesting to see how both teams perform — with Buffalo coming off a bye and Carolina riding the confidence of its first road win of the year.

Embed from Getty Images

Weather

Forecasts are calling for an overcast day in Charlotte, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Precipitation shouldn’t be an issue, with only a 4% chance of rain. Winds could play a slight factor, averaging around 9 mph with gusts reaching up to 23 mph.

Betting Overview

Sportsbooks have stayed fairly consistent with this matchup, though there’s about a half-point discrepancy — some have the Bills at -7, while others list them at -7.5. The moneyline has shifted further in Buffalo’s favor, moving from -310 to as high as -370, while Carolina’s has gone from +250 to +320. The total has also seen some movement, dropping from its original line of 47.5 to between 45.5 and 46.5, depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: While the Panthers have looked strong over the past few weeks and managed to pull out some close wins, this Buffalo Bills coaching staff is a different level of challenge. The Bills’ coordinators may be on the younger side, but with Sean McDermott leading the charge — a coach who’s been through nearly every situation imaginable — Buffalo has the clear edge in experience and preparation.

DLs vs. OLs: This matchup in the trenches could be one of the best in the NFL this week. Both defensive lines are comparable in strength, and the same goes for the offensive lines. However, Carolina’s offensive line has been marginally more effective, particularly in the run game, giving the Panthers a slight advantage up front.

QBs: With the Panthers’ quarterback situation still uncertain — though it seems likely Andy Dalton will start — that doesn’t bode well against Josh Allen. While Allen hasn’t been at his sharpest the last couple of games, a week off could mean trouble for Carolina as he looks to rebound.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Rico Dowdle has flashed with a few impressive performances, but James Cook has been more consistent over the full season. Buffalo also holds the advantage in both the tight end and linebacker groups, giving them the upper hand in the middle of the field.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both teams have held their own in the passing game, though Buffalo’s secondary has been slightly better. Neither wide receiver corps is especially prolific, but the Bills get a boost here thanks to the presence of Josh Allen and his ability to elevate the play of those around him.

Betting Trends

Buffalo hasn’t exactly been the most reliable team to back this season, sitting at 2-4 ATS. On the road, they’re 1-1, with both contests coming as the favorite, but they’ve struggled outside of the AFC, going 0-2 ATS in non-conference play. Totals have been a coin flip for the Bills, splitting 3-3 overall. However, unders have been more favorable on the road, hitting in both games, while non-conference matchups have produced an even 1-1 split on totals.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have been one of the stronger ATS teams this year, posting a 5-2 record and covering in all three home games so far. Non-conference matchups haven’t been quite as favorable, with Carolina sitting at 2-2 ATS in those games. Totals have leaned toward the over, which has hit in 4 of 7 games overall, including 2 of 3 at home. Against non-conference opponents, totals have split evenly at 2 overs and 2 unders.

Final Thoughts

Unlike last week, when the Panthers flew a bit under the radar, the entire NFL world will be watching this matchup to see if they’re truly a legitimate threat. I do have some concerns for Carolina, particularly with Buffalo coming off a bye and the injuries the Panthers are managing. With those factors in play, I like Buffalo to come in and cover the spread, and I’m leaning toward the under 46.5 in this one.