Game: Clemson Tigers at. Louisville Cardinals

Date: November 14th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

The Clemson Tigers are coming off what was easily their best win of the season, defeating Florida State at home last week. That victory gives them some breathing room in their push for bowl eligibility — now needing to win just two of their final three games. Louisville, meanwhile, suffered its second overtime loss of the season, bringing the Cardinals to 7-2 making themselves a longshot for the ACC title.

Offensively, Clemson has been solid, averaging 409.3 yards per game (42nd in FBS) and 27.9 points per game (65th). Defensively, they’ve been about the same statistically, allowing 351.9 yards per game (46th) and 22.4 points per game (41st). Louisville’s offense has been a bit less explosive, putting up 384.1 yards per game (65th) and 30.6 points per game (41st). However, their defense has been a clear strength — ranking 18th nationally in yards allowed per game (315.1) and 38th in points allowed per game (22.3).

With plenty on the line for both teams — Clemson fighting for bowl eligibility and Louisville chasing an ACC title shot — expect a competitive and high-energy Friday night matchup in Louisville, Kentucky.

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Weather

Though conditions will be on the cooler side, this game will be played in the low to mid-50s — nothing too uncomfortable for early November. Precipitation chances are minimal at just 5%, and winds should remain mild, averaging around 6 mph with gusts up to 12 mph.

Betting Overview

When betting lines first opened for the college football season, Clemson was listed as high as a 6.5-point favorite. Now, the tables have turned, with Louisville favored by 3 to 3.5 points. The moneyline remains fairly tight, offering Clemson’s best value at +132 and Louisville’s at -155. The total has seen a significant drop from its original 60.5 down to 50.5.

Power Ratings 

    • ESPN FPI: Clemson is rated slightly ahead of Louisville in this model, giving 9.0 points to the FBS average compared to Louisville’s 8.5. Based on those numbers, the model suggests Louisville should be closer to a 2 to 2.5-point favorite.
  • SP+: This model paints a more optimistic picture for the Cardinals, ranking Louisville 26th with a +12.2 rating against the FBS average, while Clemson sits 41st at +8.8. According to SP+, Louisville would actually be a slightly stronger favorite than the current line indicates.

Betting Trends

Clemson has continued to struggle against the spread this season with a 3-6 record, though they’ve been better away from home at 2-1 on the road and 3-4 in conference play. The under has been the more favorable trend, hitting in 5 of 9 games overall. On the road, the under has cashed in 2 of 3 games, with one resulting in a push. Within ACC play, totals have split evenly at 3 apiece.

Louisville holds the same 3-6 ATS record this year but has notably struggled at home with an 0-6 ATS mark. In conference games, the Cardinals are 3-3 ATS. Overs have been more favorable in their matchups, hitting in 5 of 9 games overall, including 4 of 6 at home, while totals in ACC games have also split evenly at 3 apiece.

Final Thoughts

After last week’s big win, it will be interesting to see if Clemson can carry that momentum into this matchup. With Louisville’s continued struggles to cover the spread at home this season, I have to lean in favor of Clemson at least covering in this spot. As for the total, I’d stay away from it given how inconsistent both teams have been in that department.