Game: Duke Blue Devils at Clemson Tigers

Date: November 1st at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

On Saturday, November 1st, the Clemson Tigers will host the Duke Blue Devils. Both teams struggled in their Week 8 matchups and had a bye this past week, so they should come into this game refreshed and ready to go. Duke has been solid this season, entering at 4-3 overall and 3-1 in ACC play. The Blue Devils’ offense has stood out, particularly through the air, averaging 449.3 yards per game (19th in FBS) and 32 points per game (33rd in FBS). Defensively, they haven’t been terrible but still fall in the lower half of the FBS, allowing 392.7 yards per game (79th) and 27.2 points per game (78th).

After Clemson’s Week 8 loss to SMU, the Tigers find themselves below .500 at 3-4 with a 2-3 record in conference play. Offensively, things haven’t been where they need to be—especially in the run game. Clemson averages 400.7 yards per game (48th in FBS) and 26 points per game (69th). While the defense hasn’t quite met its lofty expectations, it’s still been respectable, allowing 338.3 yards per game (31st) and 20.9 points per game (25th).

Clemson has likely played its way out of the ACC title race, but Duke remains firmly in contention with just one conference loss. This game presents a great opportunity for the Blue Devils to stay alive in the race—and for Clemson to play spoiler.

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Weather

It’s shaping up to be a pleasant fall day in Clemson, South Carolina, with temperatures expected to stay in the low to mid-60s throughout the game and only a 2% chance of rain. Wind shouldn’t play much of a factor either, averaging around 4 mph with occasional gusts up to 12 mph.

Betting Overview

Clemson has remained a steady 3.5-point favorite in this matchup since the line first opened across most sportsbooks. The moneyline has shifted slightly in Clemson’s favor, with Duke moving from +124 to around +145, while Clemson has gone from -148 to -165. The total has also seen an uptick, rising from the opening line of 53.5 to between 55.5 and 56.5 depending on the book.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: These teams are nearly identical in ESPN’s FPI model, with Duke ranked 41st, giving 7.5 points to the FBS average, and Clemson at 39th, giving 8.4 points to the FBS average. With only about a one-point difference between them, the current sportsbook lines align well when factoring in Clemson’s home-field advantage.
  • SP+: The SP+ model actually rates Duke slightly higher than Clemson, with Duke at 45th (+8.1 vs. FBS average) and Clemson at 48th (+7.6). Based on this model, Clemson would project as roughly a 2.5- to 3-point favorite in this matchup.

Betting Trends

Duke, despite being above .500 straight up, sits at 3-4 ATS on the season. They’ve performed fairly well on the road, covering in two of three games, though they failed to cover their lone road game as an underdog. In ACC play, Duke is currently 3-1 ATS. Totals have generally leaned toward the over in Blue Devils games, hitting in five of seven overall. On the road, the over has cashed in two of three contests, including their one game as a road underdog. Within conference play, over/unders have split evenly at two apiece.

Clemson, on the other hand, has struggled ATS this season, posting a 2-5 record. The Tigers have failed to cover in all four of their home games and are 2-3 ATS in ACC matchups. The under has hit slightly more often for Clemson, cashing in four of seven games. At home, totals have split evenly with two overs and two unders, and ACC games have also split two apiece with one push.

Final Thoughts

With Clemson sitting below .500 at this stage of the season for the first time in years, this matchup will be a telling one for the Tigers. Both teams are coming off a bye week, and with neither proving particularly reliable ATS this season, it’s hard to feel confident picking a side. As for the total, I would lean toward the over at the current line.