Last week the model went 3–3, bringing the 2026 record to 50–23–4 on the year. A flat week driven by some bad tier plays. The kind of results that happen when you push into lower-confidence spots. The process flags those moments for a reason, and last week was a good reminder of why the tier system exists. We reset, we refocus, and we find the next edge.

This week the UFC heads to Perth, Australia for a card that goes down while most of us in the States are sleeping. A 1AM PT start time means fight week prep matters more than ever. Get your bets in early and check the lines before you call it a night.

Dave Ross and I broke down the full card on this week’s First Strike with special guest Kyle Anthony. And if you caught the episode, you heard us talk about my official launch of FightingWithNumbers.com. The full model tale of the tape for every fight modeled is now live and open to everyone. Check it out at the link after you catch up on this weeks episode.

Let’s dig into some numbers.

Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert

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Some of you already know where the odds sit on this one and have probably rolled your eyes that I’m even braking it down. Fair enough. But we can only break down the fights the model runs, so here we go.

Jacob Malkoun enters on a two-fight win streak, most recently defeating Torrez Finney in January. He’s gone 5–3 in the UFC since debuting in 2020, with one of those losses coming via DQ due to an illegal elbow. Across from him is Gerald Meerschaert, 38 years old and riding a four-fight losing streak, three of those by finish. His last victory came in 2024, and the question hanging over this one is whether GM3 has anything left to offer at this stage of his career.

The size advantage does go to Meerschaert — he’s 6’1 to Malkoun’s 5’9, with a five-inch reach edge at 77 inches. That’s where the advantages for Gerald largely end.

The xR% gap is significant. Malkoun checks in at a healthy 75%, while Meerschaert has dipped to 47%, below the red flag line and reflective of a fighter who is losing the majority of rounds he competes in. Gerald still carries legitimate danger, particularly on the ground with 11 submission victories in the UFC, but he’s also been finished eight times in his career and knocked down seven times inside the octagon.

The striking numbers tell the story of two fighters heading in opposite directions. Malkoun lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute with a +2.19 differential and 58% significant strike accuracy. Meerschaert lands just 3.01 per minute with a –0.51 differential at only 45% accuracy and just 39% accuracy to the head. He’s not doing enough damage to control fights in any way.

On the ground, Malkoun is also a force. He holds a 90% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, has scored 33 takedowns, and is averaging 11.55 takedown attempts per five minutes. That is relentless pressure. Meerschaert counters with a 49% control rate and 30% takedown accuracy, but not enough to flip the script on the mat from an offensive standpoint. The one caution for Malkoun is that both men carry poor takedown defense, 33% for Malkoun and 43% for Meerschaert, meaning Gerald’s submission game remains a live threat if things get scrambled.

The model lands firmly on Malkoun (no surprise) with a full confidence 82.17% win probability. His moneyline sits at –1150. Zero interest there. None.

Where the model points us creatively is the method. Meerschaert has been knocked out five times in his UFC career and dropped in three of his last four fights. His chin has been compromised, and Malkoun brings the kind of output and accuracy to exploit that. Malkoun has only one UFC knockout to his name, but the conditions are right for a second. Malkoun by KO at +120 is the number we’re watching, we’re waiting for props to officially arrive before pulling the trigger, but that’s the target.

Malkoun is the prediction. The prop is the play.

Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg

Here we go again. How about another significant age gap?

Tim Elliott is 39 years old and somehow riding a two-fight win streak, both by submission. His most recent victory came last August against Kai Asukara as a +250 underdog. He made his UFC debut all the way back in 2012, left, came back via The Ultimate Fighter, got welcomed back to the promotion by Demetrious Johnson — the GOAT — and has been grinding ever since. His overall UFC record is 10–11, but zoom in on the recent window and he’s 4–1 since 2022. That’s not a man running on fumes.

Across from him is Steve Erceg, a former title challenger who hit a rough stretch at the top. Losses to Pantoja, Kara-France, and Moreno in succession. No shame there, those are three of the best flyweights on the planet, but it raises the question of whether Erceg was punching above his level when that title shot came. He’s coming off a decision win over Ode Osbourn last August and looking to rebuild momentum.

The xR% gap is modest but meaningful. Elliott sits at 58%, Erceg at 56%. Neither number is inspiring, but Elliott edges him in a matchup where both fighters carry statistical scars from tough runs.

The striking profiles are interesting. Elliott lands 3.37 significant strikes per minute with a +0.72 differential, absorbing less than three per minute at 2.65. For a 39-year-old on a career this long, that absorption number is genuinely impressive. That’s how you extend a fighting life. Erceg lands 4.00 per minute with a modest +0.21 differential, absorbing 3.79 significant strikes per minute. He’s the busier striker, but he’s taking more damage in the process.

Elliott has never been knocked down in his UFC career. Not once. That kind of durability across a decade-plus run means something.

The styles favor Elliott on the ground as well. He spends 46% of his time at distance, holds a 58% control rate, and has scored 63 takedowns across his UFC career at 48% accuracy. Add on 19 submission attempts to go with it. He is relentlessly active when the fight hits the mat. Erceg defends takedowns at 63%, which is respectable, but Elliott’s volume makes that defense work overtime.

Running it through the model, the output lands on the underdog. Tim Elliott receives a 75% win probability, earning a Live Dog designation. We got in at +280 earlier in the week, an excellent number looking back considering where we are now. The line has since moved to +195 at time of this writing. The edge has compressed but the play still holds at the price.

Tim Elliott is on the slip.

Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates

Fair warning, most of us in the States may be asleep when this one happens. Set your alarm or get your bets in early, because this main event is worth watching in my opinion. And it may end quickly. Just go back to bed afterwards.

Jack Della Maddalena returns to the octagon for the first time since being dominated in his only title defense against Islam Makhachev last November. Before that night, JDM was undefeated in the UFC and on an 18 fight win streak, one of the most impressive streaks the welterweight division had seen in years. The Makhachev loss was a reality check, but one fight against arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet doesn’t erase what he built. He’s 29 years old and has plenty of runway ahead of him.

Across from him is Carlos Prates, one of the most dangerous finishers in the division. Two straight TKO victories, most recently stopping Leon Edwards last November. Every single one of his UFC victories has ended by TKO — and his only UFC loss came by decision, the one time he couldn’t get the finish. The pattern is clear.

Prates holds a five-inch reach advantage at 78 inches, a significant tool for a striker of his caliber.

Now, here’s something worth flagging on the xR% before we go further. JDM enters at 52%, but for context, he was sitting at 64% before his last fight. Five rounds of being dominated by Makhachev will do that to a number. Prates checks in at 53%. These are mid-range marks for two fighters with elite ability, and the model reflects the genuine uncertainty in this matchup.

The grappling picture can be summarized very quickly. There is none. Combined, these two men have scored two takedowns in the UFC. JDM has 8% control rate, Prates 22%. Both defend takedowns respectably. Nobody cares. This fight should live and die on the feet.

JDM lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute with a +1.55 differential and has scored six knockdowns in the UFC. His striking profile is cleaner and more efficient. Prates lands 3.66 per minute with a –0.95 differential. Not the crisp numbers you might expect from someone with his finishing reputation. But he carries eight knockdowns scored, and neither man has ever been knocked down inside the octagon. This is two chins that haven’t been tested yet by each other.

The model runs it through and lands on the former champion, but barely. JDM receives a 59.78% win probability, which at current odds of around -105 produces no actionable edge. He falls as a Dead Dog in the tier system. The model has a lean but not enough confidence to recommend a play. This one is a pass from a betting standpoint.

What it is, however, is a genuinely compelling fight. Two elite strikers, minimal grappling, and a card going down at 1AM PT in Perth. Set the alarm, make some coffee, and enjoy the violence. This main event is worth losing a little sleep over.

*full model report is LIVE at FightingWithNumbers.com

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