Game: Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers

Date: November 8th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

After Week 1 of the college football season, even with Clemson losing its opener, many expected this week’s matchup to be a pivotal game in the race for the ACC and the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately, this week’s Florida State at Clemson matchup features two teams that are below .500 in conference play. Nevertheless, this is still a heated rivalry that should provide a good game to watch.

Statistically, the FSU offense remains very strong, averaging 479.6 yards per game (7th in FBS) and 34.7 points per game (16th in FBS). The defense hasn’t been quite as sharp, allowing 334.4 yards per game (28th in FBS) and 23.1 points per game (42nd in FBS). Clemson finds itself in the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball, averaging 420.6 yards per game (31st in FBS) and 28.4 points per game (61st in FBS) offensively. Defensively, the Tigers allow 350.9 yards per game (43rd in FBS) and 24.0 points per game (52nd in FBS).

At this stage of the season, both teams are simply competing for bowl eligibility, making this matchup an important one if either hopes to extend its season into December.

Embed from Getty Images

Weather

With this game being played at night, temperatures should stay in the mid-50s throughout, with only a minimal chance of rain. Winds could play a small factor, averaging around 6 mph with gusts up to 14 mph.

Betting Overview

Since this was a highly anticipated matchup in the preseason, we saw an early spread released for this game. When it opened, Clemson was a 16.5-point favorite, but with how both teams’ seasons have unfolded, they now sit as a 2 to 2.5-point favorite. With this game nearly a pick ’em, FSU is listed at +110 on the moneyline, while Clemson’s best value sits at -120. The total has remained steady, opening at 55.5 and moving slightly to 56 or 56.5 at most books.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: ESPN’s FPI model remains surprisingly high on Florida State, ranking the Seminoles 24th and giving them 11.4 points above the FBS average. Clemson sits at 37th, giving 8.7 points above the FBS average. Based on this model, the game would project as a pick ’em or slightly favor Florida State, even accounting for Clemson’s home field.
  • SP+: SP+ also has Florida State ranked 24th, but with a higher margin at +13.6 against the FBS average. Clemson isn’t rated as favorably, sitting 45th and giving 8.2 points to the field average. According to this model, FSU would actually be favored in this matchup.

Betting Trends

With these teams being long-time rivals, they’ve obviously faced each other plenty over the years. Looking at the past three matchups, Clemson has won two of the last three, while Florida State has covered in two of those games, with the under-hitting in two as well.

FSU’s ATS record mirrors its straight-up record this season at 4-4. The Seminoles have struggled on the road with an 0-2 ATS mark and a poor 1-4 ATS record in conference play. When looking at totals, the over has hit in five of eight games, though road totals have split one apiece. In conference matchups, there have been three unders compared to two overs.

Vegas hasn’t been able to find many numbers Clemson can cover, as the Tigers sit at 2-6 ATS this season. At home, Clemson is now 0-5 ATS and 2-4 in ACC play. Unders have been slightly more favorable, hitting in four of eight games, with one push. At home, however, the over has been more common, hitting in three of five games, and in three of six conference matchups, including that one tie.

Final Thoughts

Last week, FSU seemingly got things back on track, while Clemson dropped another game they frankly should have won. This matchup should come down to the wire, but with how the Seminoles played last week, I’d lean toward them covering here. As for the total, I’d stay away from it in this one.