Game: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at NC State Wolfpack

Date: November 1st at 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN 2

This Saturday night, the undefeated Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will travel to Raleigh, NC to take on the NC State Wolfpack. While the Yellow Jackets had a few close calls early in the season, they’ve been dominant as of late. Offensively, they’re averaging 442.9 yards per game (22nd in FBS) and 32.7 points per game (30th in FBS). Defensively, they’ve adopted more of a “bend but don’t break” approach—allowing 378 yards per game (65th in FBS) but just 21.1 points per game (27th in FBS).

NC State, on the other hand, has hit a rough stretch after a promising start, losing four of its last five, including back-to-back blowout losses. The Wolfpack now sit at 4-4 overall with a 1-3 ACC record. Offensively, they’ve been serviceable, averaging 393.9 yards per game (55th in FBS) and 26.9 points per game (66th in FBS). Defense has been the Achilles’ heel, surrendering 439.4 yards per game (116th in FBS) and 32.7 points per game (107th in FBS). Despite their struggles, Carter-Finley Stadium is a tough place to play—especially under the lights—so this will be a challenging road test for Georgia Tech, and one they can’t afford to overlook.

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Weather

Temperatures for this game are expected to be on the cooler side, hovering in the mid-40s throughout the night. Precipitation is highly unlikely, with just a 1% chance of rain, and wind shouldn’t play much of a factor, averaging around 4 mph with occasional gusts up to 9 mph.

Betting Overview

This game opened with Georgia Tech as a 4.5-point favorite, but the line has since shifted slightly to -5.5 in their favor. Interestingly, the moneyline has moved a bit toward NC State, with Georgia Tech opening at -238 and now sitting around -196, while the Wolfpack opened at +195 and have shortened to +180. The total has also seen a modest bump, rising from 56.5 to 57.5.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: The FPI model currently ranks Georgia Tech 25th in the nation, giving them 11.1 points above the FBS average, while NC State sits at 60th, 1.6 points above the average. Based on those numbers, Georgia Tech would be about a 9.5-point favorite on a neutral field, suggesting the current line should be closer to 6.5 or 7.5 when factoring in NC State’s home-field advantage.
  • SP+: This model also ranks Georgia Tech 25th but gives them a slightly higher 13.7 points above the FBS average. NC State is 65th in SP+, earning just 1.4 points above the FBS average. That would project the Yellow Jackets as even heavier favorites according to this metric.

Betting Trends

Last season, these two teams met in Atlanta, where Georgia Tech narrowly edged out NC State by just one point. The Yellow Jackets were 7.5-point favorites in that matchup, so the Wolfpack covered the spread, and the over 51.5 total also hit.

Georgia Tech has been remarkable this season, boasting an 8-0 straight-up record and a 6-2 mark against the spread. They haven’t been quite as dominant on the road, sitting at 2-1 ATS away from home and 1-1 as a road favorite. Within ACC play, they’ve been strong at 4-1 ATS. Totals have split evenly at 4-4 for the Yellow Jackets, though the under has been slightly more favorable on the road, hitting in two of three games and splitting one apiece as a road favorite. The under has also cashed in three of their five ACC matchups.

NC State enters at 3-5 ATS this season, with a 2-2 record at home—all four games coming as a favorite. In conference play, they are 2-3 ATS. The Wolfpack have leaned toward the over this season, hitting in five of eight games. At home, totals have split evenly (two overs, two unders), while in ACC play, the over has hit in four of five contests.

Final Thoughts

With how poorly NC State has performed against tougher opponents in recent weeks, they’ve become a difficult team to trust. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, appears to have truly found its rhythm this season—though this will be one of the more challenging road environments they’ve faced. Even so, it’s hard to have much confidence in the Wolfpack right now, so I would lean toward Georgia Tech covering the spread in this matchup. I’d also lean toward the over hitting in this one.