We were a Cody Ware penultimate lap spin-out away from having one of the most exact simulation finishes ever this past Sunday at Kansas. Instead, that caution forced us to settle for just really good. My own personal predictions were headed for an exact 1-5 finish. That said, we still had eight Top 10’s pegged, and our projected runner-up won the race. Of course, this week’s race, the Jack Links 500 from Talladega, figures to be far less predictable, as Talladega has a handicap-ability grade of F+, edging only Daytona. Races here are about as big a crapshoot as you’ll get on the circuit. However, this does mean underdogs can score well for bettors, and in fact, in this race a year ago, we did peg our first Talladega race simulation winner in recent memory, with Austin Cindric taking home the checkered flag at 16-1.

On our initial simulation, Cindric is projected second this week, behind Penske teammate Joey Logano and in front of his other teammate, Ryan Blaney. Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe, the fall race winner here, round out the top 6. Knowing the racing style and the recent history at Talladega, it would be miraculous for all six of those guys to finish in their projected spots. With that in mind, if they can avoid trouble, the prices for them and other top Superspeedway drivers are way more attractive than usual. Of course, avoiding the ‘big one” for 188 laps at NASCAR’s biggest and fastest track takes special skill and a whole lot of luck.

For those of you relatively new to NASCAR or NASCAR betting, if you’re wondering what makes me give a track like Talladega a handicap-ability grade of F+, it’s because almost anything can and will happen at the races there. Tracks like this, and Daytona, are known for drafting, and with both tracks in excess of 2.5 miles around, the speeds can get pretty high, too. Thus, the cars are packed together at insane speeds. Often, the results of this are called “big ones”, or accidents that can wipe out up to a dozen cars at a time. Additionally, if the cars don’t crash, there’s a good chance that a car can drop 10-15 positions in a single car by making an ill-timed move that leaves him without drafting help. This makes these races altogether unpredictable using statistical techniques. That said, we generally do know the drivers that tend to run up front most in these races, and they are typically the ones that lineup at the top of the simulations. You can also get them at prices that are better than most other venues.

Before digging into what to look for statistically and the drivers that have been best at Talladega for Sunday, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Kansas, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through nine races, the first quarter of the 2026 season.

Initial Kansas simulation winner: loser Larson 6th (-1 units) – NOW +0 units for the season

Final Kansas Simulation winner: loser Hamlin 2nd (-1 units) – NOW +27.5 units for the season

Final Kansas Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: one winner, one loser – Reddick +330, total return +2.3 units – NOW +28.8 units for the season

Final simulation top 3 Kansas projections: one winner, two losers, Reddick +100 – total return -1 unit – NOW +4.95 units for the season

Final simulation top 5 Kansas projections: three winners, two losers, Hamlin -140, Reddick -200, Briscoe +210 – total return +1.9 units – Now +10.55 units for the season

Final simulation top 10 Kansas projections: two losers (Blaney, Bell), eight winners, Denny Hamlin -350, Tyler Reddick -550, Chase Briscoe -120, Bubba Wallace -120, Kyle Larson -400, Chase Elliott -140, Chris Buescher -140, Ty Gibbs -120 – total return +3.05 units – Now +13.45 units for the season

There are incredibly solid returns so far on the simulations for winners, top 3s, top 5s, and top 10s, especially when you consider the added vig put on NASCAR wagers by shops like DraftKings. Also, in looking back at the 2025 season, we started pretty cold, and really hit our stride at the quarter mark of the season, which we are approaching this week.

Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…

My personal top 5 Kansas predictions: two winners, three losers – Hamlin -140, Reddick -200 – total return -1.85 units – Now -6.55 units for the season

Top Kansas Longshots to win: four losers –total return -4 units – Now +31 units for the season

Favorites to struggle at Kansas: Byron (7th), Logano (30th), Bowman (18th), Keselowski (6th) – Now 25 for 32 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!

Clearly, it remains a very strong start to the 2026 season, continuing right where we left off back in November. We are on a 16 for the last 37 races run in picking outright winners on our final simulations. Had you played all of these, you would be up +67 units! While we didn’t peg the outright winner at Kansas, Reddick came from our second spot, and projected winner Hamlin finished second. Had we not had the Ware spin out on lap 266 of 267, we would have had another winner. Hard to complain with the good fortunes we had lately, however.

Looking ahead to Talladega now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this 2.66-mile Superspeedway over the last two seasons. Typically, these tracks are all about drafting skill and avoiding crashes. Of the simulation factors, they are all relatively even. There is no practice for this race, and qualifying on Saturday is of only minimal significance. That said, with what is currently a three-car Penske bunching at the top, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than that team wind up on top of the final projections. Here are the stats for the last four races at Talladega for all active drivers who have raced here, with four different winners in that span. In fact, the last 11 races here have produced 11 different winners:

Average STARTING POSITION in the last four races at Talladega
1. Michael McDowell: 1.5
2. Kyle Busch: 3.25
3. Austin Cindric: 3.75
4. Austin Dillon: 9.5
5. Ryan Preece: 9.5
…
31. Erik Jones: 29.25
32. Noah Gragson: 30.25
33. Carson Hocevar: 33
34. Cody Ware: 34
35. Ricky Stenhouse: 34.25
36. Casey Mears: 40

Embed from Getty Images

Average RUNNING POSITION in the last four races at Talladega
1. Joey Logano: 10.75
2. Darrell Wallace: 15.25
3. Todd Gilliland: 15.5
4. Kyle Busch: 15.75
5. Austin Cindric: 15.75
…
32. Cody Ware: 24.25
33. John Hunter Nemechek: 24.5
34. Erik Jones: 26
35. AJ Allmendinger: 29.33
36. Casey Mears: 30

Total LAPS LED in the last four races at Talladega
1. Joey Logano: 100
2. Michael McDowell: 93
3. Austin Cindric: 54
4. Josh Berry: 42
5. Chase Briscoe: 39
…
31. Alex Bowman: 1
32. Riley Herbst: 1
33. Austin Dillon: 1
34. Christopher Bell: 0
35. Erik Jones: 0
36. Casey Mears: 0

Average DRIVER RATING for the last four races at Talladega
1. Joey Logano: 93.975
2. Darrell Wallace: 88.9
3. Todd Gilliland: 88.35
4. Ryan Preece: 85.325
5. Austin Cindric: 84.8
…
32. John Hunter Nemechek: 49.85
33. Erik Jones: 48.7
34. Casey Mears: 46.6
35. Cody Ware: 44.275
36. AJ Allmendinger: 39.93

Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 the last four races at Talladega
1. Joey Logano: 139.25
2. Austin Cindric: 115.25
3. Kyle Busch: 111
4. Darrell Wallace: 104.75
5. Todd Gilliland: 104.75
…
32. Cody Ware: 40
33. John Hunter Nemechek: 38.75
34. Erik Jones: 31.75
35. AJ Allmendinger: 22
36. Casey Mears: 7

Best AVERAGE FINISH in the last four races at Talladega
1. William Byron: 9.75
2. Cole Custer: 10
3. Tyler Reddick: 11
4. Carson Hocevar: 11.25
5. Todd Gilliland: 12.75
…
32. John Hunter Nemechek: 27.5
33. Riley Herbst: 28
34. Josh Berry: 28.25
35. Ryan Blaney: 30.25
36. AJ Allmendinger: 30.33

Total LAPS FINISHED in the last four races at Talladega
1. William Byron: 764
2. Tyler  Reddick: 764
3. Carson Hocevar: 764
4. Kyle Larson: 764
5. Ty Gibbs: 764
6. Zane Smith: 764
7. Kyle Busch: 764
…
32. AJ Allmendinger: 432
33. Cole Custer: 381
34. Ty Dillon: 381
35. Riley Herbst: 329
36. Casey Mears: 193

With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Talladega are, in order,  Cindric, Wallace, Logano, Gragson, and Preece. In terms of Track Designation ratings, the top guys are Wallace, Logano, Buescher, Keselowski, and Cindric. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Reddick, Hamlin, Larson, and Bell. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.

The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after qualifying, which is set for 10:30 a.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit in the Sunday morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:

Top 5: Logano, Briscoe, Wallace, Cindric, Buescher

Top underdogs to consider: Wallace, Buescher, Preece, Gilliland, Gragson, Keselowski, Busch, McDowell

Favorites to struggle: Elliott, Larson, Hamlin, Reddick

The 188-lap event at Talladega is set for 3:20 PM ET on Sunday, April 26th, and it is MUST WATCH!

Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.

The post Jack Links 500 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots appeared first on VSiN.