Kentucky Derby 2026

The Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 3-year-olds, is as much of an American rite of spring as the start of the baseball season and the Masters.

This is the 152nd Run for the Roses, which has traditionally been run on the First Saturday in May, but that hasn’t always been the case. The inaugural Derby was run in 1875 on May 17 (the Third Saturday in May) and was mostly run on the second or third Saturday of the month (with the notable exception of the fourth Saturday in April on April 29, 1901) for more than 50 years. It’s been run on the First Saturday in May since May 7, 1932, except for when the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic pushed it back to Sept. 5 (the First Saturday in September).

That was the last time the Derby wasn’t held on the First Saturday in May, and that was also when Churchill Downs first used the custom-made 20-horse starting gate instead of the usual 14-horse gate plus an auxiliary gate (which is significant since you’ll be reading a lot about post positions here and in the rest of the VSiN Betting Guide, as well as hear about them on VSiN broadcasts and podcasts).

As a marquee sporting event, the Derby is often the only horse race that a lot of people pay attention to during the year. While this Betting Guide is certainly for our regular horse-playing subscribers at VSiN, it’s also meant as a primer to help casual fans catch up on this year’s Derby field and offer advice on how to bet the race, as well as Friday’s Kentucky Oaks, which is for 3-year-old fillies, and the undercards on each day.

While most people are focusing on the top contenders that came out of winning the major prep races, the thing that makes betting the Derby so great is that it’s just as likely that we get a long-shot winner. These are young horses (think of them as teenage boys) that are still developing. The winner could be a colt with a lot of racing experience, or it could be one that’s peaking at the right time come Derby Day. The best 3-year-old doesn’t always win the Derby; it’s often just the one that’s best on the First Saturday in May.

Remember that these colts are running the 1 1/4-mile distance for the first time, and they’re also contending with the biggest crowd they’ve ever heard, then trying not to get taken out in the cavalry charge to the first turn and having to overcome the traffic in a 20-horse field. A lot can go wrong, even if you’ve bet on the “best horse.”

So, while you’re going through the profiles of this Saturday’s contenders (note we’ve included the also-eligibles from #21 to #24 just in case one draws in, like Rich Strike in 2022 and won at 80-1 to pay $163.60 on a $2 win bet, second-largest in history) and the picks of VSiN’s hosts and handicappers to help mesh with your own handicapping, we hope we help you find the winner. But also—to borrow from baseball and the Masters—take this opportunity to swing for the fences and create your own Cinderella story.

What has made these days so profitable overall is because there’s so much public/dead money in the pools that it makes it easier to find overlays in the betting pools. Obviously, that’s no guarantee we’ll win on this year’s Derby, but at least we know going in there’s a better chance to make money than on a typical racing day.

Since the Derby has a 20-horse field, I also endorse the belief that it’s OK to spread your bets around, even when it comes to Win and Place wagers. I would never suggest that in a typical race, as you’re basically betting against yourself, which is tougher to overcome than the track takeout or the vig in sports betting.

Kentucky Derby 2026 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Renegade I. Ortiz Jr. T. Pletcher 4-1
2 Albus M. Franco R. Mott 30-1
3 Intrepido H. Berrios J. Mullins 50-1
4 Litmus Test M. Garcia B. Baffert 50-1
5 Right to Party C. Elliott K. McPeek 30-1
6 Commandment L. Saez B. Cox 6-1
7 Danon Bourbon A. Nishimura M. Ikezoe 20-1
8 So Happy M. Smith M. Glatt 15-1
9 The Puma J. Castellano G. Delgado 10-1
10 Wonder Dean R. Sakai D. Takayanagi 30-1
11 Incredibolt J. Torres R. Mott 20-1
12 Chief Wallabee J. Alvarado W. Mott 8-1
13 Silent Tactic C. Torres M. Casse SCR
14 Potente J. Hernandez B. Baffert 20-1
15 Emerging Market F. Prat C. Brown 15-1
16 Pavlovian E. Maldonado D. O’Neill 30-1
17 Six Speed B. Hernandez Jr. B. Seemar 50-1
18 Further Ado J. Velazquez B. Cox 6-1
19 Golden Tempo J. Ortiz C. DeVaux 30-1
20 Fulleffort T. Gaffalione B. Cox SCR
AE (in) Great White A. Achard J. Ennis 50-1
AE (in) Ocelli J. Ramos D. Beckman 50-1
AE Robusta E. Jaramillo D. O’Neill 50-1
AE Corona de Oro B. Hernandez Jr. D. Stewart 50-1

I’m going to break down the horses I’m considering into the most likely winner (for those who like to bet the favorites or top contenders and who aren’t as averse to chalk like yours truly), then my top value play as we sit here early in Derby Week, then other long shots to consider. Later in the week, I’ll return to VSiN.com with my final “takes” on both the Kentucky Oaks card on Friday and the Derby card on Saturday, with expanded analysis and more exotic tickets as we try to blow up the tote board at Churchill Downs.

MOST LIKELY WINNER

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#1 Renegade (4-1 morning line): At the Derby draw last Saturday, Renegade—this year’s betting favorite off his four-length victory in the Arkansas Derby on March 26 at Oaklawn Park—drew the dreaded inside post. All everyone wanted to talk about was how no one has won the Roses from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986. Of course, the connections have all said the right things. Owner Mike Repole, who is 0-9 with Derby starters and has some hard-luck stories recently with the favorites, as Uncle Mo and Forte were late scratches in 2011 and 2023, and then Fierceness made the starting gate last year as the 5-2 chalk and finished 15th, tweeted, “I wouldn’t trade places with anyone heading into the Kentucky Derby. I’ll take [trainer] Todd Pletcher, [jockey] Irad Ortiz Jr., and the best horse in the race, Renegade, from the 1 post every time.” Still, I know a lot of people are not betting Renegade because of the historically bad post, but while the No. 1 hasn’t won in 20 years, remember that it’s only been six runnings since the new starting gate in 2020 that gives a little more room for the rail horse. I don’t bet favorites myself, but I have to say that if you really believe Renegade is the best of this class, I wouldn’t let all the chatter keep you from betting on him (and frankly, at 4-1 on the morning line, you’re getting better value than you would if he were breaking from any other post). The Derby is won by the horse that runs the best on the First Saturday in May of their 3-year-old year and can win from anywhere. Besides, Renegade is a deep closer that doesn’t need to get to the lead on the rail anyway. Ortiz Jr. is a great jockey, and you can count on him getting a ground-saving trip no matter where he starts. If Renegade loses, it’ll be because he’s not the best horse on race day, not because of the post position.

TOP VALUE PLAY

#17 Six Speed (50-1): Two years ago, my top value play in the Derby was #1 Dornoch (yes, also from the dreaded No. 1 post), and he came up short at 20-1 odds by finishing 10th. However, luckily I stuck with him, and he won the 2024 Belmont Stakes five weeks later for us at 17-1. I bring that up (besides a humble brag, LOL) because Dornoch was a front-runner that I picked to steal the Derby wire to wire. Again, he didn’t, but with a 20-horse field and potential traffic problems for those in the mid and back of the pack, it’s still the easiest way to upset the Derby (or any horse race, for that matter). I love the old saying attributed to author Damon Runyon: “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.” Six Speed is suitably named and should be the speed of the speed on Saturday and play “catch me if you can.” Six Speed will be making his U.S. debut, with all prior races coming in Dubai, where he had three wins in five starts with one second and one third, so he’s always been in the money with his front-running style, which plays to the strength of jockey Brian Hernandez, who won the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan. Six Speed did lose the Grade 2 UAE Derby his last time out, as he was run down late by Wonder Dean, so a lot of people will point to that as him not being able to last the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance, as that was at 1 3/16 miles, but that’s also why we’re getting such huge odds on the pacesetter. And since we’ve already dwelled on post-position curses, we’re also getting 50-1 because no horse has ever won from the No. 17 post (though only 46 of the previous 151 runnings, since the fields haven’t always been this big, have even had 17 horses). Obviously, we see front-runners tire in the stretch all the time, especially if forced to set suicidal early fractions, but there aren’t any other real rabbits to wear down Six Speed, and I’ll love to be holding a ticket on him if he’s still in front heading for home.

OTHER LONG SHOTS TO CONSIDER

#10 Wonder Dean (30-1): As mentioned above, Wonder Dean closed to win the UAE Derby over Six Speed, so I’ll also have a win ticket on this long shot in case that’s a key race and the Kentucky Derby is run the same way. Wonder Dean earned an automatic bid in this race off that victory, in which he settled in mid-pack before getting in position on the backstretch and running down the front-runner in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths. A similar trip on Saturday will be tougher, as several Derby runners have the same running style, but I like long shots who have done it before and are being dismissed for other reasons (Americans passing on foreign horses, not feeling the UAE Derby is as strong as our prep races, the cursed post, etc.).

#8 So Happy (15-1): In most years, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner would be given more respect, but this year’s top West Coast prep race wasn’t considered very strong, with top Derby contenders prepping elsewhere (Renegade at Oaklawn, Further Ado at Keeneland, others at Gulfstream) and a small field of seven. So Happy has a stalking running style that he used to win the Santa Anita Derby under jockey Mike Smith and should be able to navigate a relatively clean trip from the No. 8 post.

#14 Potente (20-1): Just like the Six Speed–Wonder Dean combo from Dubai, I have to look at the Santa Anita Derby runner-up to So Happy, especially since it’s trained by Bob Baffert and was the beaten favorite last time out. I like those types of horses who obviously have demonstrated their talent and earned respect at the betting windows but are now overlooked because of one lost race. Potente set the pace at Santa Anita before giving it up, but he also showed the ability to stalk and close in his victory in the Grade 2 San Felipe, so he doesn’t necessarily need the lead like a lot of Baffert trainees. If he had won the Santa Anita Derby, he would have easily been among the top contenders in single digits here, so this might be the best value play of them all.

OTHER COLTS TO FILL EXOTICS

#2 Albus (30-1): He won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and has upside with just four career starts. Albus should be dropping back along with Renegade to get a deep-closing trip. If he makes a step forward off his first stakes win (only had a maiden victory before the Wood), he could be dangerous.

#6 Commandment (6-1): It’ll be hard to leave Commandment off our horizontal (pick 4s, pick 6s, doubles, etc.) tickets or vertical wagers in the Derby itself, as the Grade 1 Florida Derby victor comes in on a four-race winning streak, which also included the Fountain of Youth pre-prep race. He’s the 6-1 second choice for a reason.

#9 The Puma (10-1): This son of Essential Quality and grandson of Tapit (though I don’t put too much stock in breeding for the Derby, as nearly all this year’s runners have bloodlines back to the great Secretariat, so it’s a wash as they’re all well-bred) finished second to Commandment in the Florida Derby after winning the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. He should be in a group of a whole bunch in contention turning for home.

#11 Incredibolt (20-1): Most handicappers are dismissing the Virginia Derby winner, as that’s not considered a major prep race, plus it was held seven weeks ago, which is a long layoff compared to most traditional paths to the Derby. But I think it’s interesting to note that Incredibolt is the only entrant with two wins over this track at Churchill Downs, while most have never raced in Louisville. That does make him a bit of a horse for the course, even though they were just his maiden victory back in September and in the Grade 3 Street Sense in October.

#12 Chief Wallabee (8-1): Trainer Bill Mott won last year’s Derby with Sovereignty and has had Chief Wallabee on a similar light prep path with just three prior starts. Chief Wallabee won his first maiden race at Gulfstream in January and was the second betting choice in both Florida preps but finished second to Commandment in the Fountain of Youth and third to Commandment and The Puma in the Florida Derby. It’s worked for Mott before, so that makes Chief Wallabee dangerous.

#18 Further Ado (6-1): Many people think the Grade 1 Blue Grass winner should be the favorite off his impressive 11-length victory at odds-on. He also won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall over this track at Churchill Downs, so this is another short-priced colt that I can’t dismiss. He drew No. 18, but outside posts haven’t been a deterrent in recent years, so he should be in the mix.

NO THANKS – IF THEY BEAT ME, THEY BEAT ME

The old adage is “you can’t bet ’em all,” so I won’t have #3 Intrepido, #4 Litmus Test, #5 Right to Party, #7 Danon Bourbon, #13 Silent Tactic, #15 Emerging Market, #16 Pavlovian, #19 Golden Tempo, #20 Fulleffort (now scratched), or any of the also-eligible horses (if they scratch into the field) on any of my tickets. If they beat me, they beat me.

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