Tuley’s Takes: Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs:

We’re always excited for the First Saturday in May here in the Tuley’s Takes home office with the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but we’ve been looking forward to Friday’s Kentucky Oaks card just as much.

Just like the Breeders’ Cup Classic being most everyone’s focus on the Saturday of BC Weekend each fall, the Derby is the marquee event this weekend, but I really look at this as a two-day betting event, as there’s value to be found on both days. Of course, we all love to say we had the Kentucky Derby winner to have bragging rights all year (and beyond), but I’m just as happy as long as I end up making a profit over the two days. The money spends the same, right?

So, while the biggest section of each of my “takes” columns will be on the Oaks and Derby and I’m hoping to help my readers find some live longshots to bet to Win and include in their exotic wagers, I’m not so sure either race is the best chance to make money each day. Only time will tell.

Before we get to Friday’s undercard (Saturday’s column will be posted at VSiN.com on Friday afternoon), let’s give an overview of the Oaks.

We have a full field of 14 expected to go to the starting gate. Fourteen were drawn into the original field, but #12 Bella Ballerina, #6 My Missy Mo and #8 Bottle of Rouge were scratched earlier this week to allow the three also-eligibles (#15 Lovely Grey, #16 Nycon and #17 Resist) into the field.

There isn’t a superfilly in the class, but a case can be made for all the top contenders (and we’ve seen those all over the web earlier in the week), starting with #2 Zany, the lukewarm 4-1 morning-line favorite trained by Todd Pletcher (who also trains Derby ML fave #1 Renegade) and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. Zany was undefeated at 3-for-3 before finishing second as the odds-on favorite in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland last time out. I love forgiving a longshot who lost its last race (especially as the chalk), but have no problem tossing a low-priced horse because perhaps she’s already peaked and the rest of the class is catching up to her.
#5 Meaning is the second-choice at 5-1 off her win in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. The 6-1 co-third choices are also coming in off win with #1 Explora taking the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn and #11 Percy’s Bar beating Zany in the Ashland. The 8-1 co-fifth choices also won their last races with #4 Counting Stars in the Grade 2 Fantasy at Oaklawn and #10 Prom Queen in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Oaks at Gulfstream.

But just like in the other races below, while everyone else is looking at the horses that have proven themselves on the track and found the winner’s circle, I’ll be trying to project his horses are on the improve and haven’t shown us their peak performance yet.
Happy Handicapping today and every day!

Grade 2 Unbridled Sidney Stakes (turf)

Friday, Churchill Downs Race 7, 3:48 p.m. ET

This is a 5.5-furlong sprint and most handicappers look for speed horses, but these races are won just as often by closers that get overlooked by the betting public. Obviously, sometimes the fastest horse does win these races wire-to-wire, but the betting value is certainly to be found looking at closers (especially those who have shown a consistent ability to close at these shorter distances).
#4 Creed’s Gold (20-1) is a well-traveled mare with wins at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay in Florida, Aqueduct in New York and even Woodbine in Canada, so she can handle any track. She’ll definitely be off the pace and ready to pass tiring fillies and mares down the stretch. Trainer Mark Casse has also recruited top jockey Flavien Prat to pick up the mount in this race, so that really tells me she’s live and ready to outrun her odds.

Tuley’s Take: #4 Creed’s Gold to Win and Place.

Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes

Friday, Churchill Downs Race 8, 4:30 p.m. ET

#4 Paradise (15-1) looks like a really live longshot in the Eight Belles. Frankly, I’m surprised she didn’t get more respect from the morning-line maker as she was the 6-5 favorite in the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct and could have been riding in the Kentucky Oaks for the big money despite finishing third in the Gazelle. Instead, trainer Brad Cox opted to run her in this shorter race at seven furlongs, reportedly out of concerns about her getting the longer Oaks distance. I guess that’s understandable with her weakening at a mile and an eighth, but she did win the Busher Stakes at a mile, so I believe she fits in nicely here. She also gets an upgrade at jockey with John Velazquez, and he should have her on or near the lead throughout at a nice price.

While not my top choice, I do want to mention another longshot in #5 Solemn View. She only has a maiden win to her credit, so that’s why I chose Paradise over her, but she could improve on her third start off a layoff with third-time Lasix under Jose Ortiz.

Tuley’s Take: #4 Paradise to Win and Place, plus #5 Solemn Vow to Win (and a 4-5 Exacta Box just in case).

Alysheba Stakes

Friday, Churchill Downs Race 9, 5:12 p.m. ET

Casual horse racing fans should recognize #2 Baeza from the Triple Crown last year when he was third in the Derby, third in the Preakness and second in the Belmont. Later in the year, he finished second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga and won the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby before finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so he’s a deserving 5-2 favorite here.

However, I’m going to try to beat him with #3 Grande (8-1), who should be the speed of the speed and hopefully steal this race wire to wire like he did in the Grade 3 Ghostzapper last time out at Gulfstream. He will also be ridden by John Velazquez for the Oaks/Derby favorite combo of Repole Stable and Todd Pletcher.

Tuley’s Take: #3 Grande to Win and Exacta Box with #2 Baeza.

Grade 3 Modesty Stakes (turf)

Friday, Churchill Downs Race 10, 6:01 p.m. ET

I remember #5 Kathynmarissa (8-1) from a few years ago as a consistent filly (11 starts, 4 wins, 2 seconds, 2 thirds) in her 2- and 3-year-old campaigns. I don’t recall her optional claiming win at Saratoga last August as a 4-year-old after a five-month layoff. Now, she’s been off for eight months and makes her 5-year-old debut in this Grade 3 race at Churchill. I’m surprised her odds aren’t higher, but obviously, she’s shown she can win off a long layoff, so I can trust supertrainer Chad Brown has placed her in the right spot.

Tuley’s Take: #5 Kathynmarissa to Win at 8-1 or higher.

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Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes (turf)

Friday, Churchill Downs Race 12 ,7:40 p.m. ET

We’re definitely looking for a closer in this mile-and-a-sixteenth race, and there are plenty to choose from in this deep field (as we often see in turf races). But the one that catches my eye and looks like the best chance to outrun its odds if #13 Indigo Woods (15-1). She is a lightly raced 3-year-old filly with only two career starts, but she won both in her maiden win over this same turf course at Churchill from way back and then from more of a stalking trip in a minor stakes at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. As I’m going to mention in the Oaks below, this is the kind of horse where we don’t know how good it could be so we certainly want to jump on before everyone else is on the bandwagon. I’m sure her odds aren’t shorter due to starting way outside, but I also don’t see that as a detriment in this long of a race and might actually help her get a clean trip.

Tuley’s Take: #13 Indigo Woods to Win and Place.

Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks

Friday, Churchill Downs Race 13, 8:40 p.m. ET

As stated in the intro, I’m going to try to beat the top contenders (but I will use some I like in Exactas, Trifectas and Superfectas below. Just like I write every year with the Derby, these 3-year-olds can makes huge improvements in a short period of time and the goal is to show up with your top performance on the first weekend of May (and you have to remember that’s the mentality of all the owners and trainers of these fillies as they probably didn’t mind lose prep races as long as their filly was improving and on the right track to peak this First Saturday in Friday).

#9 Always a Runner also won her last prep race, the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct, but hasn’t been given as much respect as the other prep race winners at 10-1. Besides winning a Grade 3 instead of a Grade 1, she’s still underrated because she’s only run two career races, but I actually see that as a plus-sign, as she certainly still has the right to continue improving, while we’ve probably seen the ceiling for the other top contenders. I’ve seen her listed as a deep closer (probably due to being fifth and sixth at the first call of her two races), but she was only four lengths back and quickly got into contention unlike a true closer, so I’d call her more of a stalking horse that usually does better at this mile-and-a-sixteenth distance at Churchill

#9 Always a Runner is my top choice and a value play as long as she stays in double digits (which hopefully she does will the other highly regarded fillies in the field taking money). But I have another longshot that I’m definitely betting as I believe she’s being overlooked at 30-1. Unlike the lightly raced Always a Runner, #3 Search Party has the most career starts in the Oaks field with eight. It took her a while to break her maiden at Oaklawn and then followed that up with a minor stakes victory. Stepping up in graded stakes competition at Oaklawn, she finished fourth in the Grade  Honeybee and second in the Grade 2 Fantasy. Again, not finding the winner’s circle, but always in contention despite some traffic problems. Being that battle-tested should suit her well for the 14-filly Oaks field. She should get a relatively clean trip from the No. 3 post and be there at the end at a juicier price than the top contenders. I would love to be holding these tickets if she’s in the top tier turning for home.

One of the most fun wagers of the weekend is the Oaks/Derby Double, so put me down for the 3/9 in the Oaks to the 1/8/10/14/17 in the Derby (that’s #1 Renegade, #8 So Happy, #10 Wonder Dean, #14 Potente and #17 Six Speed).

In case I’ve handicapped the Oaks perfectly, I’ll also use Search Party and Always a Runner in Trifecta Wheels (3/9 with 3/9 with ALL and 3/9 with ALL with 3/9) so I cash big if they finished first and second or first and third. I’ll also play some other exotics like the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta with #1 Explora, #2 Zany and #7 Dazzling Dream, the expected pacesetter, in case she sticks around, 

Tuley’s Takes: #3 Search Party to Win and Place and #9 Always a Runner to Win if 10-1 or better, plus the Oaks/Derby Doubles and exotics listed above.

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