Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch top contenders list is unchanged at the top heading into the final stretch before the Kentucky Derby, with Renegade holding at 4-1 on the Derby Watch odds, Commandment and Further Ado co-second choices at 5-1, and The Puma at 8-1. No horses entered or left the Top 20 this week. The only movement on the board was Fulleffort tightening from 25-1 to 20-1. With all Derby qualifying points now distributed, the focus has fully shifted to workout reports, jockey assignments, and pre-race decisions.
On this week’s Derby Watch podcast, Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona noted the international futures markets show Renegade drifting slightly while Further Ado has ticked up, though Aragona has kept his top three unchanged.
“I kept things mostly as they were last week – the same three favorites: Renegade, Commandment, and Further Ado,” Aragona said, adding that workout reports over the coming days could move the numbers if either of the Brad Cox horses impresses at Churchill Downs while Renegade remains at Palm Beach Downs.
“Workouts can move the board in the late stages heading into the Kentucky Derby,” Aragona said, “and Renegade not being on-site – that could be a potential issue for some bettors.”
Speed figures favor Further Ado – but the field has depth
Daily Racing Form’s David Grening pointed out that Further Ado‘s 106 Beyer Speed Figure from the Blue Grass Stakes leads all Derby contenders by any metric – the colt also earned a 122 TimeformUS figure in that race.
Aragona noted that no Kentucky Derby winner has posted a pre-race Beyer above 105 in recent history, with Mage, Authentic, and American Pharoah each arriving at 105. That said, Aragona pushed back on any notion this is a thin crop.
“We’ve got six 100-plus Beyer Speed Figures earned by five different horses,” he said. “So it’s a Derby with some depth to it.”
He also flagged So Happy and Potente as horses who could outperform their current Derby Watch odds once bettors pull their PPs.
“When you pull the PPs, look at some speed figures, So Happy starts to look more competitive,” Aragona said. So Happy sits at 12-1 for trainer Mark Glatt, while Potente, trained by six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, is at 15-1.
Blinkers on Chief Wallabee – History says proceed with caution
The week’s biggest equipment news: Chief Wallabee, at 10-1 on the Derby Watch odds with trainer Bill Mott, is set to add blinkers for the Kentucky Derby. Grening, who broke the story, said the connections felt the colt was distracted in the Florida Derby.
“He thought he was distracted a little bit in the Florida Derby where he wouldn’t go through the horse,” Grening said, “he’s just trying to help him along.”
Aragona went through 25 years of Derby history to assess the risk. His finding: 10 horses have added blinkers for the first time in the Derby over that span, and not one of them won or finished in the trifecta.
“It is risky,” Aragona said. “I don’t know that it’s a move that has necessarily garnered success in the Derby at any time in recent history.”
Chief Wallabee has shipped to Churchill Downs, where he is expected to work this weekend.
Jockey picture mostly set – Six Speed still waiting
Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride Renegade, John Velazquez picks up Further Ado, and Luis Saez has the call on Commandment. Tyler Gaffalione takes Fulleffort, Jaime Torres stays with Incredibolt, and Manny Franco has been named on Albus. Six Speed, the UAE-based runner at 50-1, remains without a confirmed jockey.
Grening reported that Ottinho and Iron Honor remain on the bubble, with trainer Chad Brown awaiting workouts before deciding whether to ship either horse to Louisville.
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 11, April 15, 2026)
Horses listed with trainer and Derby odds from DRF Derby Watch:
Embed from Getty Images1. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 4-1)
Last start: 1st by 4 lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28 – 98 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
T2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 5-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 101
T2. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 5-1)
Last start: 1st by 11 lengths, Blue Grass (G1), April 4 – 106 Beyer
Best Beyer: 106
4. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 8-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
5. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 10-1)
Last start: 3rd by 1/2 length, Florida Derby (G1), March 28 – 99 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
6. So Happy (Mark Glatt, 12-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 3/4 lengths, Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
T7. Danon Bourbon (Manabu Ikezoe, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 1/2 lengths, Fukuryu Stakes, March 28 – NA Beyer
Best Beyer: NA
T7. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by head, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 97
T7. Potente (Bob Baffert, 15-1)
Last start: 2nd by 2 3/4 lengths, Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4 – 95 Beyer
Best Beyer: 95
10. Fulleffort (Brad Cox, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), March 21 – 94 Beyer
Best Beyer: 94
11. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 4 lengths, Virginia Derby, March 14 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
12. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 30-1)
Last start: 2nd by 4 lengths, Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
T13. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, 35-1)
Last start: 3rd by 1 length, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
T13. Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill, 35-1)
Last start: 2nd by head, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 90
T15. Albus (Riley Mott, 40-1)
Last start: 1st by 1 1/4 lengths, Wood Memorial (G2), April 4 – 83 Beyer
Best Beyer: 84
T15. Wonder Dean (Daisuke Takayanagi, 40-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2), March 28 – NA Beyer
Best Beyer: NA
T17. Right to Party (Kenny McPeek, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 1 1/4 lengths, Wood Memorial (G2), April 4 – 81 Beyer
Best Beyer: 81
T17. Six Speed (Bhupat Seemar, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 2 1/2 lengths, UAE Derby (G2), March 28 – NA Beyer
Best Beyer: NA
T17. Ottinho (Chad Brown, 50-1)
Last start: 2nd by 11 lengths, Blue Grass (G1), April 4 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
T17. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, 50-1)
Last start: 5th by 11 1/2 lengths, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 73 Beyer
Best Beyer: 92
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
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