Game: Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons

Date: October 26th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

While not nearly as appealing as Bills at Panthers, the Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons is another AFC East vs. NFC South matchup this week. For Miami, things have gone from bad to worse, as they’ve now dropped their third straight game—this time in emphatic fashion to the Cleveland Browns, 31-6. Offensively, the Dolphins have struggled mightily, ranking 27th in yards per game (279) and 25th in points per game (20). Defensively, things haven’t been any better, as they sit 26th in yards allowed per game (363.1) and 29th in points allowed per game (29.3).

Things won’t get any easier against an Atlanta Falcons team sitting at 3-3. Atlanta has had no trouble moving the ball, ranking 7th in yards per game (364.3), but has struggled to finish drives, ranking 28th in points per game (18.3). On the defensive side, the Falcons have been outstanding, ranking 2nd in yards allowed per game (265.2) and 8th in points allowed per game (20).

Week by week, this Miami team appears to be regressing, and the locker room chemistry seems to be fading fast. If the Dolphins want any chance to compete on Sunday, they’ll need to find cohesion on both sides of the ball—something that has felt like a lost cause lately. Let’s break down where things stand between these two squads ahead of kickoff.

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Betting Overview

When betting markets first opened for this matchup, oddsmakers viewed it as a fairly even contest, with Atlanta favored by just 1.5 points. Since then, the line has shifted dramatically, as the Falcons are now favored by 7.5 across the board. The moneyline has seen similar movement, with Miami drifting from even odds to +340, while Atlanta has moved from -120 to -400. The total has also dipped slightly, dropping from an opening line of 46.5 to 44.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: What once looked promising a few years ago for Mike McDaniel and his staff has quickly unraveled. Raheem Morris and his crew, while not without their flaws in preparation and late-game management, have shown far more consistency and stability compared to Miami’s sideline.

DLs vs. OLs: Surprisingly, the offensive lines between these two teams are fairly comparable. The major difference lies on the defensive front, where Atlanta holds a clear advantage. The Dolphins have struggled to generate any real push, whether in the pass rush or against the run, giving the Falcons a significant edge in the trenches.

QBs: Based on this season’s play, Michael Penix Jr. has been the more effective quarterback. The Falcons don’t ask him to do too much thanks to Bijan Robinson’s dominance on the ground. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa has been well below expectations, struggling in nearly every aspect of his game.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This matchup again favors Atlanta. Bijan Robinson has been one of the league’s top running backs, while De’Von Achane has been a bright spot for Miami despite the team’s broader struggles. The tight end battle is closer, with Kyle Pitts showing noticeable improvement this year. Atlanta’s off-ball linebackers have also outperformed Miami’s group by a solid margin.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The absence of Tyreek Hill significantly hampers Miami’s offense, even with Jaylen Waddle in the mix. While the Dolphins’ secondary isn’t weak, Atlanta’s ability to limit opposing passing attacks has been one of the more impressive aspects of their season.

Betting Trends

Miami has been slightly below .500 against the spread this season, sitting at 3-4 overall. On the road, things have been much tougher, with a 1-3 record ATS, and they’ve failed to cover in their lone non-conference matchup. Totals have leaned heavily toward the over, hitting in six of seven games overall and three of four on the road. In non-conference play, the over has hit once for the Dolphins.

Atlanta enters this matchup an even 3-3 ATS on the season. They’ve been dependable at home, covering in two of three games, and are 1-1 when listed as a home favorite. In their only non-conference matchup so far, the Falcons successfully covered. The under has been the more reliable play in Atlanta games, cashing in five of six overall. At home, the under has hit in two of three games, and it also hit in that single non-conference contest.

Final Thoughts

After getting pummeled in Cleveland last week, this will be the game where we truly see Miami’s character. Their record may be among the worst in the league, but they’ve at least been competitive in several matchups. Atlanta, meanwhile, is coming off a tough loss in San Francisco. Unfortunately for Miami, this feels like a lost season, and I don’t see them just losing—I see them failing to cover the 7.5-point spread as well. As for the total, I’m staying away from the over/under altogether.