MLB Best Bets Today June 11

Nine games means 18 of the league’s 30 teams take the field on June 11, as we only have one interleague game in the bunch, the conclusion of what has been a fantastic series between the Braves and White Sox. Chicago is in first place in the division now and they don’t seem to be going away anytime soon, despite being a bottom-feeder the last several seasons. That game is one of just three games after the 3 p.m. ET hour, so it’s slim pickings for the article today in the interest of lead time.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 11:

Mariners vs. Orioles Prediction

Pick: Orioles -102

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Bryan Woo and Kyle Bradish will get things going tonight at Camden Yards for their respective teams as the O’s stay home to face the Padres this weekend and the M’s take the short trek to D.C. to face the Nationals. So far, it’s a 2-1 series edge for Seattle in this four-game set, as they dropped yesterday’s game 7-2 after winning in extra innings on Tuesday night. This is the seventh game of a 10-game roadie and the Mariners will host the Orioles next week.

In a very Dickensian way, it’s been a tale of two cities for Woo. When he’s in Seattle, he’s great. When he’s in not Seattle, he’s less great. Woo has a 2.37 ERA with a .159/.200/.242 slash against at T-Mobile Park, but a 5.08 ERA with a .271/.307/.406 slash on the road. He’s pitched nearly an identical number of innings home and away, but has allowed just 10 runs at home and 24 runs on the road, including twice as many hits and five of his seven homers.

We’ll see if the Orioles are able to take advantage in this one, as they rank seventh in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days with a .259/.359/.443 slash.

The Mariners have also been swinging the sticks well against righties, checking in ninth in wOBA with a .269/.323/.478 slash, so Bradish will have to be on his game. He has a 3.89 ERA with a 4.10 xERA and a 4.24 FIP, as walks have been a major part of his undoing this season. He’s walked 36 in 69.1 innings, posting a career-worst 11.9% BB% in the process. However, in that two-week span, the Mariners have the second-lowest BB% at just 5.8% and rank 18th in BB% for the season as a whole.

If Bradish can limit the free passes, a balmy night like tonight may not hurt him as much as it could hurt Woo. Bradish has a 50.8% GB% and has actually thrown the ball extremely well at home with a 2.38 ERA and a .188/.274/.302 slash over 41.2 innings and 168 batters. Woo is more of a fly ball guy with a 36% GB%. 

Baltimore’s bullpen is a good bit fresher and hopefully they’ll have a lead to protect.

The post MLB Best Bets Today: Adam Burke’s Picks for Thursday, June 11 appeared first on VSiN.