Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 8 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-130, 9.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesThis is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Tigers (28-40) won the opener 10-4, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. Then the Twins (31-38) bounced back with a 6-4 win yesterday, coming through as +140 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Twins hand the ball to righty Zebby Matthews (2-3, 4.15 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Keider Montero (2-4, 3.95 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 home favorite and Minnesota a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Tigers laying short chalk at home, steaming Detroit up from -120 to -130, with some shops touching as high as -135.
At Circa, the Tigers are taking in only 57% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
Pro money has also come down in favor of the Tigers run-line (-1.5 at +160), as Detroit is receiving 51% of spread bets but 84% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Home favorites -140 or less, like the Tigers here, are 182-136 (57%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Home favorites -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 120-82 (59%) with an 8% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, the home favorite -140 or less has gone 90-59 (60%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Matthews is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA on the road this season. He has also posted a 5.19 ERA during the day compared to 2.77 at night.
Detroit has the better bullpen, posting a 4.20 ERA compared to 4.97 for Minnesota (3rd worst in MLB).
The Tigers are 17-16 at home. The Twins are 13-20 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-170, 9.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Dodgers (43-25) dominated the opener 12-3, coming through as +100 road dogs. Then the Pirates (35-33) posted an improbable 9-8 comeback victory yesterday, cashing as +170 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Dodgers send out lefty Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.62 ERA) and the Pirates go with righty Mitch Keller (5-3, 4.81 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -150 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +130 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Dodgers to earn a win and take the series, steaming Los Angeles up from -150 to -170.
At DraftKings, Los Angeles is receiving 88% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Dodgers are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Non-division road favorites priced -150 or more with a win percentage of .610 or greater, like the Dodgers here, are 49-21 (70%) with a 7% ROI since 2025.
When both teams are above .500, the team receiving line movement has gone 88-53 (62%) with a 15% ROI this season.
Wrobleski is 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA on the road this season and 5-1 with a 2.44 ERA in night games.
Meanwhile, Keller has posted an 8.31 ERA in his last five starts, giving up 24 earned runs in 26 innings pitched. He has posted a 5.22 ERA at home compared to 4.32 on the road and a 7.03 ERA in night games compared to 3.07 during the day.
The Dodgers are hitting .270 against righties and .275 on the road, both ranked 1st in MLB.
The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Thursday June 11th appeared first on VSiN.

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