This week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update ushers in the month of June, a turn of the calendar which I’m hoping will revive the bullpen strategies I have been using so religiously for over a decade now. The good news is it is a long baseball season, and our greatest successes last year came in the season’s final couple of months. The bad news is we are slowly and steadily digging a hole that we need to climb out of. Most of the systems I track are doing worse than usual, although if you consider the ROI’s aren’t nearly as bad as the average bettor’s losses, the angles are still proving advantageous, just not as much as I’ve come to expect. I’ll have more on that in a bit. In this update, I’ll also discuss what was an extremely high-scoring week, one that was particularly damaging to a number of bullpens.
As I just mentioned, this past week in MLB was a very high-scoring one all around. Games over the last seven days averaged 9.5 runs per game, over 1.0 RPG more than prior. A lot of the scoring came late in games, as several bullpens were hit hard consistently. In fact, six different teams dropped by double-digit points in my rating system. That is a record as far as memory serves. The Rays suffered the worst fate, dropping by 17 points. Of course, other teams did fare well, such as the Houston Astros, who posted a last seven games WHIP of 0.64 and bumped upward 9 points. This just in time to also be welcoming back stud left-hander Josh Hader from the DL on Tuesday, Houston is playing its best ball of the season, and its ability to hold teams down in the late innings has played a big part. That said, back to the struggling bullpens, let’s take a closer look at the six teams that dropped double-digits last week:
This week’s double-digit downward movers (PR points)
1. TAMPA BAY: -17 points – The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games as they get ready to host Detroit to start the week. The bullpen was bad and consistent in all seven games, allowing runs each time, having to put in 30 innings of work in the stretch. The ERA was 7.20 and the accompanying WHIP was 1.767. You’ll see below that some of the others may have comparable or even worse stats, but Tampa’s consistently poor performance led to steady drops in my ratings.
2. TEXAS: -12 – Texas is also in the midst of some bullpen woes, but ironically, the Rangers managed to go 4-3, including a weekend sweep of Kansas City in spite of the poor performance. This bullpen was a little less worked, 21 innings put in, but the ERA of 7.29 and WHIP of 1.90 was even worse than Tampa’s.
3. KANSAS CITY: -11 – The Royals go into their three-game set with Cincinnati on a six-game losing skid. Like the other teams on this list, they have struggled to hold teams in check lately in late innings. Their seven-game log features 23-1/3 innings of work, ERA of 10.02, WHIP of 2.31. The entire 2026 season has been a nightmare for Kansas City, and a once-strong bullpen unit now faltering hasn’t helped.
4. DETROIT: -10 – The theme is pretty consistent here…teams are in the midst of skids, bullpens are struggling. The Tigers are in an extended skid, and over the last week, won just one of six games. Their relief corps went 17-1/3 innings in those games, allowing 29 hitters to reach base and 17 earned runs.
5. SAN FRANCISCO: -10 – The Giants managed to break a 5-game losing skid by beating up the Colorado bullpen on Sunday, but their own bullpen struggles are one of the primary reasons they are currently floundering. Over-usage is currently a major issue for San Francisco, as their relief corps has gone 4+ innings in eight of their last nine games. In that stretch, they have allowed 20 earned runs and 54 hitters to reach base in 39 innings. It doesn’t figure to get much easier as they face Milwaukee in a four-game set to start the week.
6. COLORADO: -10 – To be fair, the Rockies lost half of their bullpen ratings points on Sunday afternoon in a brutal 19-6 loss to the Giants. In that outing, they allowed 15 earned runs in six innings of relief, with 22 hitters reaching base. The Rockies went 2-4 over the last seven days, but the overall bullpen stats in that stretch show 24-2/3 innings of work, ERA of 12.04, WHIP of 2.07. Just ugly numbers. There was a point earlier in the season when I discussed how the Rockies’ relief staff was deserving of more respect. That is no longer the case, obviously.
Before digging into the updated systems numbers, just a quick reminder that I like to include in these articles regularly. These MLB Bullpen Systems derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. Trust me when I say that I have experienced similar starts to this one. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid, reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first 2+ months of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1,138-1,004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system is off to a slow start this season, 375-342 in all for -50.16 units, and an ROI of -6.9%.
It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead even returns on 2,142 games last year validates why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. If you consider that all of the lines I use for this analysis average out to about an 15% average loss per game, this easiest system is still providing users with an advantage of 8%. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them correlation systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 15-13 for –0.6 units.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 34-51 for -20.52 units and a ROI of -24.1%!
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, these teams are off to a slow 120-90 start for -11.01 units and a ROI of -5.2%.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 69-82 for +9.02 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 103-81 start for -3.52 units and an ROI of -1.9%.
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The ’26 record so far is 27-11 for +0.78 units.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 30-26 but for -9.65 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative FADE system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 17-7 start for +0.97 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 109-133 for -12-19 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. In 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate but finished 377-404 for +13.98 units. The 2026 record is 102-122 for -16.82 units thus far, a second straight slow start.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 76-87 start for -3.57 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 33-43 for -8.29 units and an ROI of -10.9%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice FADE system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 60-72 for -4.84 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 72-60 for -12.79 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 42-55 for -29.7 units.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 5/31)
Embed from Getty ImagesTop 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. ATLANTA: 3.06
2. SAN DIEGO: 3.11
3. SEATTLE: 3.11
4. LA DODGERS: 3.12
5. BOSTON: 3.17
6. NY METS: 3.21
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. HOUSTON: 5.2
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.14
28. LA ANGELS: 4.99
27. COLORADO: 4.99
26. CINCINNATI: 4.98
25. MINNESOTA: 4.77
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.08
2. LA DODGERS: 1.12
3. BOSTON: 1.17
4. ARIZONA: 1.17
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.18
6. MIAMI: 1.2
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.57
29. LA ANGELS: 1.53
28. CINCINNATI: 1.52
27. MINNESOTA: 1.52
26. HOUSTON: 1.46
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.57
2. PHILADELPHIA: 9.79
3. LA DODGERS: 9.41
4. MIAMI: 9.39
5. SAN DIEGO: 9.33
6. NY METS: 9.3
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.17
29. TEXAS: 7.44
28. MINNESOTA: 7.67
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.7
26. ARIZONA: 7.84
25. TAMPA BAY: 7.91
Top 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. HOUSTON: 0.64
2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 0.85
3. MILWAUKEE: 0.94
4. ATLANTA: 0.95
5. LA DODGERS: 1.03
6. PHILADELPHIA: 1.05
Worst 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 2.31
29. TEXAS: 1.9
28. COLORADO: 1.85
27. TAMPA BAY: 1.77
26. MINNESOTA: 1.64
25. BALTIMORE: 1.63
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (5/25):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +11 points
2. HOUSTON: +9
3. NY METS: +7
4. LA ANGELS: +6
4. MILWAUKEE: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. TAMPA BAY: -17 points
2. TEXAS: -12
3. KANSAS CITY: -11
4. DETROIT: -10
4. SAN FRANCISCO: -10
4. COLORADO: -10
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/1)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. LA DODGERS: 35
2. SAN DIEGO: 34
3. ATLANTA: 28
4. MILWAUKEE: 25
5. BOSTON: 23
6. NY METS: 20
7. SEATTLE: 16
8. CHICAGO CUBS: 15
9. CLEVELAND: 15
10. NY YANKEES: 11
11. ARIZONA: 11
12. PHILADELPHIA: 9
13. TORONTO: 8
14. MIAMI: 6
15. ATHLETICS: 3
16. SAN FRANCISCO: 3
17. PITTSBURGH: 1
18. TEXAS: 0
19. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 0
20. DETROIT: -3
21. ST LOUIS: -4
22. TAMPA BAY: -5
23. HOUSTON: -5
24. MINNESOTA: -6
25. BALTIMORE: -9
26. LA ANGELS: -9
27. WASHINGTON: -11
28. KANSAS CITY: -17
29. CINCINNATI: -20
30. COLORADO: -20
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
The post MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for Monday, June 1 appeared first on VSiN.
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