In this week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update, I will be updating the season records for all systems, with most coming off rough weeks, unfortunately, and I will be detailing the latest and greatest in MLB bullpen performance. I’ve been telling people regularly that these bullpen angles have a tendency to start slow and pick up dramatically in the latter parts of the season as teams, rosters, and consistent performance levels tend to settle in. Unfortunately, that reality bit hard this week, as our easiest angle had its worst week of the season, and many other detailed systems also lost. That can happen when highly rated bullpens like the Reds, Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners struggle. I will share some thoughts on two of those teams in this piece. Perhaps the lone highlight was correlation angle #2, which I detail below. Enjoy the update, and hopefully, this week’s action produces far better results.
Let’s take a look at some of the things I’ve noticed and thought about in the last week regarding bullpens…
– I picked up on something last week, and I didn’t want to make much of it at the time because I felt it might be random. However, yesterday’s results made it necessary that I share what I was thinking about. Sundays have been dreadful for the EASIEST system this season so far. I didn’t want to come off as “superstitious” or “conspiratorial,” but the fact that almost half of our overall season losses have come on Sundays doesn’t seem coincidental at this point. What is unique about Sunday games? Well, to me, it is a couple of key things. First, these are all day games for the most part, many of them coming off evening contests. Perhaps this potential fatigue situation lessens the advantage that better bullpens might enjoy. Second, these are often getaway games or road trip-ending contests. There is a different psyche that comes with that. I’ll continue to monitor, as it is concerning. These are the results by day of the EASIEST system so far in 2026:
1. Saturday: 47-33, +6.18 units
2. Friday: 43-32, +1.61 units
3. Thursday: 25-22, -4.16 units
4. Monday: 26-26, -5.83 units
5. Wednesday: 36-31, -6.29 units
6. Tuesday: 31-34, -15.11 units
7. Sunday: 36-45, -21.36 units
– As I mentioned earlier, CORRLEATION SYSTEM #2 was the only one that thrived last week. That is the one that says, ”Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well.” To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 17-31 for -17.36 units and an ROI of -36.2!!! These “fade” teams were 2-11 for -10.8 units last week!
– We had some MAJOR moves last week in bullpen ratings for a trio of teams, all seeing a double-digit rise or fall since last Monday in my BP Ratings. The biggest upward mover was Tampa Bay, who climbed 12 points. The Rays are currently on a 9-1 stretch and the bullpen is a huge reason why. In that surge, the relief staff has posted a 1.29 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 35 innings of work.
– The two teams that dropped dramatically in my bullpen ratings this past week were Colorado (-16 points) and Cincinnati (-13). Recognize that double-digit moves over the course of seven days are pretty rare. What did these teams do to deserve such grading? Well, the Rockies lost five of six games this past week while their bullpen posted an ERA of 9.25 with a WHIP of 1.93. The Reds’ slide goes back seven games, and they are just 2-5 in that stretch with a bullpen ERA of 9.85 with an accompanying WHIP of 2.43. That dreadful performance erased what was a huge start for that unit for the season and dropped them from 7th to 20th in my team-by-team rankings.
– We have a huge series starting on Monday night between my two top bullpen-rated teams, Atlanta and Seattle. Both teams sport a BP Rating of 23 currently, so there will be no advantage for either team on Monday’s series opener. However, any dip or rise in performance in Monday’s game will separate the two. The Braves’ bullpen has been a little better lately, but they are still without closer Raisel Iglesias, although he could return for Tuesday’s game, apparently. Speaking of injuries, the Braves, who currently have the league’s best record at 25-10, will be without Ronald Acuna for the next couple of weeks with a strained hamstring. The Mariners, meanwhile, played Sunday without Cal Raleigh because of a side issue, and it remains to be seen what his status will be for this intriguing series. They come off a series getting at home by the Royals.
Just a quick reminder that I like to include in these articles regularly. For those of you perhaps new to VSiN, and hence new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid, reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first few weeks of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system is off its worst week of the season, and is 237-217 in all for -45.06 units, and an ROI of -9.9%.
It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead even returns on 2,142 games last year validates why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. The start for this season is the lowest unit total this easiest angle has been at for any point since about three years ago. As such, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
- Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 3-5 for -2.82 units and an ROI of -35.3%.
- Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 17-31 for -17.36 units and an ROI of -36.2!!! These “fade” teams were 2-11 for -10.8 units last week!
- Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 66-45 start for -0.48 units and a ROI of -0.4%.
- Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 33-43 for +6.88 units. I don’t expect this to last long, and in fact, last week these teams lost -1.63 units.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 67-47 start for +2.26 units and a ROI of +2%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The ’26 record so far is 14-8 for -4.64 units. Over the last three weeks, this angle has lost -10.02 units and is trending normally again.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 22-24 but for -13.64 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 11-6 start for -3.11 units. The ROI on that is -18.3%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 62-79 for -10.66 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units. The 2026 record is 58-71 for -11.12 units thus far, a second straight slow start.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 42-48 start for +0.23 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 17-22 for -1.71 units and an ROI -4.4%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 33-41 for -3.19 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again, and is off to a modest first-month start of 39-34, for -10.84 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 21-29 for -18.59 units.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 5/3)
Embed from Getty ImagesTop 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. TEXAS: 2.75
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.01
3. SEATTLE: 3.2
4. ATLANTA: 3.29
5. NY YANKEES: 3.51
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. HOUSTON: 6.2
29. LA ANGELS: 5.48
28. MINNESOTA: 5.31
27. KANSAS CITY: 5.03
26. ST LOUIS: 4.92
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.11
2. TEXAS: 1.15
3. LA DODGERS: 1.21
4. MIAMI: 1.25
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.25
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. HOUSTON: 1.66
29. MINNESOTA: 1.55
28. CINCINNATI: 1.55
27. LA ANGELS: 1.53
26. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.53
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. TORONTO: 10.4
2. MIAMI: 9.91
3. LA DODGERS: 9.54
4. CLEVELAND: 9.51
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.46
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 6.78
29. MINNESOTA: 7.42
28. TEXAS: 7.64
27. ST LOUIS: 7.75
26. ARIZONA: 7.89
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. KANSAS CITY: 0.96
2. LA DODGERS: 0.97
3. NY YANKEES: 0.99
4. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 0.99
5. TAMPA BAY: 1
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. CINCINNATI: 2.43
29. BALTIMORE: 1.89
28. COLORADO: 1.68
27. SAN DIEGO: 1.66
26. MINNESOTA: 1.62
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings Since Last Week Monday (4/27):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. TAMPA BAY: +12 points
2. MILWAUKEE: +9
2. WASHINGTON: +9
4. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +8
4. KANSAS CITY: +8
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. COLORADO: -16 points
2. CINCINNATI: -13
3. PITTSBURGH: -9
4. LA ANGELS: -8
5. ATHLETICS: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 5/4)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 23
2. SEATTLE: 23
3. TEXAS: 19
4. LA DODGERS: 18
5. MILWAUKEE: 17
6. SAN DIEGO: 16
7. DETROIT: 13
8. TORONTO: 13
9. TAMPA BAY: 13
10. CLEVELAND: 12
11. BOSTON: 12
12. NY YANKEES: 11
13. CHICAGO CUBS: 11
14. MIAMI: 11
15. NY METS: 10
16. SAN FRANCISCO: 10
17. PHILADELPHIA: 7
18. PITTSBURGH: 6
19. ATHLETICS: 6
20. CINCINNATI: 3
21. ARIZONA: 1
22. KANSAS CITY: 0
23. BALTIMORE: -5
24. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -10
25. ST LOUIS: -11
26. WASHINGTON: -12
27. MINNESOTA: -14
28. COLORADO: -16
29. HOUSTON: -18
30. LA ANGELS: -18
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
The post MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for Monday, May 4 appeared first on VSiN.
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