MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, June 12.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

7:10 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox

Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter has struggled this season with a 4.69 ERA, allowing 1.4 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings. However, he should benefit from facing a Red Sox offense that ranks last in the league in run creation at home with 3.3 runs per game. He is also supported by a Rangers bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.18.

The Red Sox counter with Sonny Gray, who owns a 3.20 ERA with one home run and 2.6 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 24th in scoring with just over four runs per game. Boston’s bullpen has also been strong, ranking fourth in ERA at 3.20.

Pick: Rangers vs. Red Sox Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 7.8

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has had issues with allowing hard contact this season, posting a 4.09 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he faces a Tigers lineup that ranks 29th in road scoring with 3.7 runs per game.

Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has struggled with command, posting a 5.31 ERA. While his 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and 4.13 fielding independent point toward positive regression, his 4.7 walks per nine innings remain a concern. The Tigers rank 19th in bullpen ERA since May 1 at 4.07, while the Guardians rank ninth at 3.37 during that span.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline -110

Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -136

7:15 PM Eastern

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

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Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean owns a 3.98 ERA with 10.2 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings this season, but he has allowed 21 runs, 18 of which were earned, across his last five starts.

The Braves rank second in the league in road scoring with 5.9 runs per game and send Spencer Strider to the mound. Strider owns a 4.00 ERA and a 4.47 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 4.8 walks allowed per nine innings. Atlanta also leads the league in bullpen ERA at 2.93.

Pick: Braves Moneyline -110

Greg’s Handicap: Braves -128

7:37 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers owns a career 3.86 ERA with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings but is allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. While he is supported by an offense that ranks fifth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game, the Yankees remain without Aaron Judge.

The Blue Jays counter with Trey Yesavage, who owns a 3.18 ERA and a 3.06 fielding independent with just 0.4 home runs allowed and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings this season.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -110

Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -142

7:40 PM Eastern

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter has struggled this season, posting a 6.21 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 2.9 walks allowed per nine innings. However, his 5.09 fielding independent points toward positive regression. He is backed by a lineup that ranks 28th in road run production with 3.75 runs per game, though the Phillies bullpen has been much improved recently, posting a 3.31 ERA since May 1, which ranks 10th in the league.

The Brewers rank seventh in bullpen ERA during that span at 3.13 and send Jacob Misiorowski to the mound. Misiorowski owns a 1.50 ERA with 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season and has been especially dominant, allowing just one earned run and two total runs across 45 1/3 innings over his last seven starts.

Pick: Phillies vs. Brewers Under 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 7.4

8:10 PM Eastern

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins

Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has been one of the few bright spots for Minnesota’s pitching staff this season, posting a 3.07 ERA and a 2.92 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 1.9 walks allowed per nine innings while recording 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy owns a 4.42 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 3.7 walks allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks 23rd in scoring since May 1 with just under 4.1 runs per game. The Cardinals bullpen has been excellent during that stretch, ranking fourth in ERA at 2.83.

Pick: Cardinals vs. Twins Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 7.8

10:05 PM Eastern

Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics

While the Athletics’ first game in Las Vegas was an explosive 15-14 affair, the other two games in the series stayed under the total. They now face a Rockies offense that ranks 25th in road scoring with four runs per game.

The Rockies are likely to take a wholesale pitching approach in this game. Their pitching staff owns a 6.01 ERA at home and a 5.01 ERA on the road. Athletics starting pitcher Gage Jump has impressed since being called up from the minors, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 2.83 fielding independent with no home runs allowed and 2.5 walks per nine innings across his three starts.

Pick: Athletics Run Line -1.5 (+105) and Under 13.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -1.5 (-114) and Total 12.2

10:15 PM Eastern

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants

Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has pitched better than his 4.00 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.02 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs allowed and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

Cubs starting pitcher Javier Assad pitches to a lot of contact, recording only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He owns a 4.73 ERA but has limited damage by allowing just 1.1 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. Assad should benefit from pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league. The Giants have also struggled offensively at home, ranking 26th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. The Cubs bullpen ranks ninth in ERA at 3.51.

Pick: Cubs vs. Giants Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 7.5

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