MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, April 18.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

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1:35 PM Eastern

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees

Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron has been highly effective since joining the MLB ranks in 2025, registering a 3.09 ERA, but the 4.14 fielding independent with 7.5 strikeouts and 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward regression. Meanwhile, Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has a 2.45 ERA this season, but his 3.55 fielding independent is a troubling sign for possible regression, especially after posting a 4.44 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings last season. He is backed by a Yankees lineup that should see an uptick in production, as they entered this series 13th in the league in scoring with 4.5 runs per game after leading the league in 2025 with 5.2 runs per game.

Pick: Royals vs. Yankees Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3

2:10 PM Eastern

Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins

While Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley is off to a blistering start with a 1.25 ERA through four starts with 12 strikeouts per nine innings, there has to be some concern that the issues from 2025 resurface, as he posted a 5.05 ERA with eight strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings last season. He is supported by a bullpen that entered the series 23rd in ERA at 5.00. Meanwhile, the Reds entered Friday with the league’s best bullpen ERA at 2.57, and starting pitcher Andrew Abbott had a 2.87 ERA last season with one home run and 2.3 walks per nine innings. He should be due for a positive bounce-back after posting a 5.85 ERA with a 4.47 fielding independent to begin this season.

Pick: Reds Moneyline +123
Greg’s Handicap: Reds +111

2:20 PM Eastern

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New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

The wind is expected to be more tame and directional than on Friday as the Cubs give Jameson Taillon the start. Last season, he had a 3.68 ERA, but his 4.65 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed pointed toward regression, and this season he has allowed five home runs in 16 2/3 innings to go with a 4.80 ERA. Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 2.70 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a lineup that entered Friday 26th in scoring with 3.4 runs per game.

Pick: Mets Moneyline +105 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -114 and Total 7.6

4:05 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals

The Giants entered the series last in the league in scoring with fewer than 3.1 runs per game, while the Nationals ranked fourth with 5.5 runs per game, but that may be due for regression given the team was just 20th in scoring last season with just over 4.2 runs per game. They face Giants starting pitcher Adrian Houser, who had a career renaissance in 2025 with a 3.31 ERA, allowing 0.7 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli owns a 4.60 ERA this season but has yet to give up a home run in four starts, as his main issue has been issuing 6.9 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Giants Moneyline -110 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -129 and Total 8.8

Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics

Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino had massive home and road splits last season, posting a 6.01 ERA at home compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road, with only 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home. White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde is coming off a brutal 2025 season in which he posted a 5.49 ERA with 5.3 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings across three teams. He is backed by a White Sox bullpen that entered the series 26th in ERA at 5.69, while the Athletics entered 22nd at 4.84.

Pick: White Sox vs. Athletics Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.3

4:10 PM Eastern

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins

Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff is coming off a 2025 season in which he had a 3.20 ERA with 11.6 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings, with his lone issue being that he has allowed over 1.3 home runs per nine innings since the start of 2025. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranked 27th in home runs per at-bat last season and is 27th to start this season. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has put his rough 2025 season behind him, leading the league with 30 1/3 innings pitched in four starts with a 2.67 ERA, allowing 0.9 home runs and 1.8 walks per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranked fifth in runs per game last season but currently has nearly half of its projected starting lineup on the injured list.

Pick: Marlins Moneyline -105 and Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -138 and Total 6.3

6:10 PM Eastern

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians

Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has followed up his 2025 season, in which he posted a 3.06 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, with a 2.38 ERA and 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings this season. While his 6.4 walks per nine innings is a concern, he is backed by a bullpen that ranked third in ERA at 3.44 last season. The Orioles lineup is both banged up and struggling, entering Friday 27th in road scoring with three runs per game. Starting pitcher Dean Kremer is coming off a 2025 season in which he had a 4.19 ERA with 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline -126
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -162

8:10 PM Eastern

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has seen better days, coming off a 5.19 ERA with two home runs per nine innings allowed last season. Through three starts this season, he has pitched just 10 1/3 innings, posting a 9.58 ERA with four home runs allowed. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen has recorded just five strikeouts per nine innings this season but has limited damage by allowing 0.9 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings, keeping his ERA at a respectable 3.60. He is backed by a lineup that ranked fourth in scoring last season with 4.9 runs per game.

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -116 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -159 and Total 9.7

9:38 PM Eastern

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels

Padres starting pitcher German Marquez had a rough 2025 season, posting a 6.70 ERA with 5.9 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings, and is off to another rough start this season with a 5.54 ERA, allowing five home runs in 13 innings along with a 7.55 fielding independent. Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi owns a 7.50 ERA with 1.5 home runs and five walks per nine innings to start this season but is coming off a 2025 campaign in which he had a 3.99 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Padres lineup that is 11th in scoring with just over 4.7 runs per game, while the Angels entered the series sixth in scoring with just under 5.3 runs per game.

Pick: Angels Moneyline -101
Greg’s Handicap: Angels -134

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